November 16, 2013 archive

Late Saturday Night: Thunderstorms Develop Overnight; Update On Sunday

Good evening, Hoosiers!  Showers are developing now, and these will increase in coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight. As we move into the wee morning hours, don’t be surprised if you’re awoken with loud claps of thunder, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail.  That said, we think overnight thunderstorms remain below what would officially be considered “severe.”

Here’s a look at the simulated radar later tonight, valid at 2am local time, courtesy of the HRRR model.

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As for Sunday, we continue to look over the latest data and our thoughts haven’t changed. It still appears the two biggest threats will be from damaging straight line winds and the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes associated both within the squall line, itself, but also with any individual severe cells that develop before “morphing” into the squall line.  It should also be pointed out that even outside thunderstorms, southwest winds will howl across central Indiana, periodically gusting upwards of 40-45 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. Hunker down…

The latest high-resolution NAM suggests the possibility of super cells entering western Indiana early Sunday afternoon before organizing into a squall line as it moves through central and western Indiana. This line will mean business as it moves east across the state, and latest data suggests the most significant severe threat for central Indiana will be from 12 noon through 6p, moving west to east.  By sunset Sunday, most of central Indiana will see a much needed (and much colder) wind shift to the northwest, ending any threat of severe weather.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/16/late-saturday-night-thunderstorms-develop-overnight-update-on-sunday/

Some Saturday Afternoon Thoughts…

We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely.  Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday.  The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening.  Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels.  The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.

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Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line  of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.

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Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event.  This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack…  The latest European model isn’t holding back.  Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up?  We’ll monitor closely.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/16/some-saturday-afternoon-thoughts/

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