• Warm Saturday; Storms Rumble In Late…

    October has gotten off to a warm start (+ 8.4° at IND, to be exact) and that will continue this weekend as high temperatures top out between 80° – 85° Saturday.

    October has gotten off to a warm start across the Mid West.

    In addition to Saturday’s warmth, southwest winds will gust over 35 MPH at times- especially during the afternoon hours.

    Most of Saturday will remain rain free, but we’ll need to keep an eye towards the western horizon Saturday afternoon as a frontal boundary helps kick up a line of thunderstorms.

    The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a large portion of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday.  While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, a couple of embedded gusty storms are a good bet Saturday afternoon and evening.

    The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds.  While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.

    We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!


  • More Rain For Some; Watching Nate…

    Highlights:

    • Wet close to the work week for some
    • Saturday storms
    • Watching Nate

    Unsettled Close To The Work Week…Thursday’s weather was just what the doctor ordered!  Officially, here at IndyWx HQ, we recorded 0.73″.  Many neighborhoods throughout central IN accumulated more than 1″ of much needed rainfall!  Thankfully, additional rain chances are present as we wrap up the work week.  Most widespread showers and embedded thunder will impact the northern half of the state Friday, especially the northern third of the state.

    As we flip the page over to the weekend, mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the exception of a skinny line of thunderstorms that will blow through the state Saturday evening.  These will come and go rather quickly and we’ll get into a slightly cooler and drier regime to wrap up the weekend.

    Attention this weekend will be what comes of Nate.  Overall, ideas haven’t changed over the past 24 hours, including an eventual late weekend landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.  That said, precise all-important details concerning overall strength are still debatable.  Interests along the north-central Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely.  Here on the home front, we note subtle differences between the GFS and European in regards to inland impacts.  For now, we’ll go with a blend between the two, thinking most of the more significant, steady rains remain southeast of central Indiana.

    Eventually a cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday night.  This will result in a NW wind shift and cooler air spilling in here later next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″


  • Bonus Summertime…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
    • Warm pattern continues
    • Changes loom later next week

    Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

    As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

    Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Warm Week With Increasing Rain Chances…

    Highlights:

    • Dry open to the work week
    • Warming trend develops
    • Turning more unsettled

    Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week.  This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.

    This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.  Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage.  We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.

    Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″


  • A Note And Some Perspective On Next Week’s New Warm Surge…

    After a cool, fall-like, weekend, we still expect a new surge of summer-like air to return next week as a strong (and expansive) ridge of high pressure “balloons” over the eastern half of the nation.

    This will be enough to send temperatures into the 85° to 90° range by the early to middle of next week.  To shed some perspective on that, our averages for early October include low temperatures in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.  For at least a couple of days next week, overnight lows will be much closer to where our afternoon highs should be this time of year.

    There are differences on how modeling handles the evolution of things once past midweek.  The European model has been jumping on a potential wet weather maker and much cooler trend in the medium term (late next week), but the GFS is having none of that- keeping us dry and hot.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and have a fresh 7-day soon!

    Finally, we’re receiving many questions that are centered on whether or not the current overall warm pattern is an indication of what we can expect this winter.  The simple and short answer to that question is an emphatic “no.”  Transitional seasons are fickle, regardless of ENSO state.  Throw in an emerging Nina and all sorts of additional “fun and games” ensue.  With that said, there’s no direct correlation specifically between warm (or cold) patterns this time of year and the winter ahead.  In fact, there’s been many instances where unseasonably warm Octobers give way to cold winters, and vice-versa.

    More later!  Make it a great Friday!


  • Finally Feeling Like Fall This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Cooler start
    • Reinforcing cool air arrives Friday evening
    • Warming back up next week

    This Is More Like It…Cooler air worked into central Indiana overnight behind a cold front.  If you ask us, a step out the door this morning feels much better than the past week (we’re ready for fall, y’all)!  A reinforcing push of cool air will blow into town Friday evening and result in Saturday being the coolest day of the weekend with most remaining in the 60s for afternoon highs.

    As we open up the new work week, our air flow will back around to the south and result in a new warming trend.  An expanding ridge of high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions next week, along with unseasonably warm to hot temperatures.

    Looking longer-term, there’s really no change in sight in the overall weather pattern through at least early October.  That said, there are indications more significant changes loom towards mid-month that could result in more of an impactful shift to cooler times by the second half of the month (warm weather fans, keep in mind the other shoe has to drop sooner rather than later ;-)).  As far as precipitation goes, while the short-term doesn’t offer any hope for dry weather relief, we’re confident of a big flip towards a wet pattern by late autumn and winter.  Hang in there!

    Fall Foliage:  The early season cool air we experienced in late August and first half of September ignited early fall foliage across central Indiana.  Unfortunately, the recent heat and expected warmer than average pattern through early October will really stunt that fall color change.  As things stand now, this fall isn’t shaping up to be one of the better color seasons across the area.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • Dry Pattern Continues; Cooling Off For The Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • One more summer-like day
    • Fall-like weekend
    • Dry weather continues

    Cooler Air Inbound…We have one more sultry day to get through as highs near record territory Tuesday with partly cloudy conditions prevailing.  A frontal boundary will slip through the state Wednesday, but moisture will be limited with the frontal passage.  If you pick up a quick shower Wednesday count yourself lucky.  Most will remain rain-free.  Cooler air will then settle into the state as we head into the weekend.  If you have plans to head out to the pumpkin patch or apple orchard, ideal autumn weather will greet you!

    Looking ahead, a new warming trend will develop next week and there’s no significant rainfall in sight, unfortunately.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″