• Category Archives Wintry Mix
  • Heavy Snow Up North To Close The Work Week; Wintry Weekend…

    Areas of light snow and flurries will impact north-central Indiana Thursday morning, especially north of Indianapolis.  This won’t amount to much and most of our Thursday will be free of snow, along with continued unseasonably cold temperatures.  Speaking of the cold, Indianapolis is running 7° below average, month-to-date.

    Looking ahead, a rather prolonged and significant snow event is setting up shop across northern Indiana.  We forecast snow to begin falling Thursday night before becoming heavy at times Friday.  A tight thermal gradient will aid in the combination of ingredients to produce hefty snowfall across far northern IN and also provide a brief break from the cold, locally, Friday afternoon (forecasting highs into the 40s here).  With that said, if your travels take you north, prepare for significant travel disruptions with the heavy snow.

    A cold front will drop south into central Indiana overnight Friday into Saturday.  At the same time, a couple of disturbances will ride northeast along the front.  This will result in periods of light wintry precipitation across central Indiana over the upcoming weekend.  Initially, this should be rather insignificant with a mix of light rain and perhaps some light sleet or light freezing rain Saturday.

    However, as our airmass becomes progressively colder Saturday night into Sunday things will become more interesting.  At the same time, a final wave of energy will lift northeast, spreading moisture into the colder air mass.  We forecast more widespread wintry precipitation to engulf central Indiana Saturday night into Sunday.  A wintry mix of sleet and snow is possible early on before transitioning to all snow Sunday morning.  A period of accumulating snow is expected Sunday and we’ll fine tune numbers as we move closer.

    Looking further ahead, an active time of things will continue as the battle remains between cold centering itself across the northern Plains into the Lakes and Ohio Valley and resistance from the southeast ridge.  This will continue to lead to a busy period of weather across the region, including storm systems that will come along every couple of days.

    We continue to think things are aligning in a fashion that should result in a significant period of cold developing during the second half of February into March this year.  We note the teleconnections continue to trend in cold directions and the MJO is also rolling along into the colder phases.  We have a long, long ways to go this winter and think some headline events remain on the table as we close the month and open March.  Time will tell.


  • Slow Going This Morning…

    Freezing drizzle and areas of light snow will continue into the early afternoon hours before we finally begin to dry things out.

    Temperatures are in the upper 20s for most central Indiana communities this morning and it’s not until we get into the early to mid afternoon hours when we anticipate temperatures to climb to around freezing.  As a result, slick conditions (especially side streets and back roads) can be expected into the afternoon and evening hours.

    Overnight lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 20s so re-freezing and slick spots on area roadways can be expected into Thursday morning.

    Thankfully, a southwesterly air flow and new warming trend will develop through the day Thursday, along with a return of sunshine!

    Much more later today on the developing new cold pattern…


  • Ice Transitions To A Double Shot Of Snow; Frigid Times Return…

    Highlights:

    • Bye-bye thaw
    • Ice to snow Friday
    • Second snow maker Sunday night

    Active Forecast Period…A breezy southerly flow will dominate our weather today ahead of an approaching cold front.  Showers and unseasonably mild conditions can be expected today.  (Despite the snow lover in me, I will admit that it’s been mighty nice being able to jog outside without worrying about slipping on ice or snow the past couple days).

    Things begin to change in rather dramatic fashion tonight as the cold front presses through the state and allows much colder air to “ooze” back into central Indiana.  At the same time, a wave of energy will track northeast along the cold front and help spread more widespread moisture into the colder air at the surface.  We expect rain to begin mixing with and changing to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain after midnight across western and central portions of the state, and closer to 5a-6a across eastern Indiana.  Eventually, as the entire column of air cools, icy precipitation will transition to snow.  If the sleet to snow transition occurs faster, snowfall totals will be at the higher end of the first call numbers outlined below.  Should sleet hold on for a longer period of time, snowfall amounts will be on the lower end of forecast totals.  We think snow will end around noon west of the city, but steady snow will hang on much longer across eastern sections of the viewing area- well into the evening hours.

    Here’s our first call snowfall forecast for Friday.  While this doesn’t include freezing rain amounts, we think a glaze up to 0.10″ is a good bet – especially on elevated and exposed surfaces.

    Dry conditions will return Saturday along with a much colder feel.  Quiet times won’t last long as another snow system will quickly begin to impact the state Sunday evening into Monday.  Widespread steady snow is expected to develop and will actually be a more uniform, bigger, event for most of the viewing area.  We’ll add in wind and arctic air which will lead to blowing and drifting issues as the day progresses Monday into Tuesday.  Here’s our first call for additional snow amounts Sunday evening-Monday.

    The forecast period will wrap up dry and bitterly cold.  With a fresh snowpack down, it’s safe to say we’ll add at least another night to the sub-zero “club!”

    Stay tuned, friends!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ to 0.75″

    *Please note the 7-day precipitation forecast outlined above is for Indianapolis proper.  


  • Gloomy Stretch; Ohio Valley Winter Storm Brewing…

    Highlights:

    • Foggy days
    • Late week winter storm
    • Much colder air returns

    Low Beam Weather…Widespread low clouds, fog, and areas of drizzle will impact the region as we progress through the next couple days.  If venturing out early this morning, be extra careful as sub-freezing temperatures combined with the moisture has created slick spots- particularly on side streets and sidewalks.

    A southerly flow will take control briefly Wednesday evening into Thursday and help lead to a quick “thaw,” along with more widespread rain showers Thursday.  This is in association with a cold front that will sink south through the state Thursday night into Friday morning.  As this is taking place, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end of the cold front and track northeast.  That low will spread moisture back into what will be an airmass turning much colder Friday into Saturday.  The end result will be a potentially significant event of an icy mix (sleet and freezing rain) transitioning to snow Friday into Saturday.  Much colder air will pour in here over the weekend and additional upper energy will result in widespread snow early next week.

    If you have travel plans Friday into Saturday, please keep abreast of the latest forecast.  A significant event looms, but we’re still a couple of days from being able to put the heaviest snow zone in “concrete.”

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 1.00″


  • Brief Thaw; Late Week Winter Storm Brewing?

    Highlights:

    • Brief midweek thaw
    • Late week winter storm threat
    • Much colder air returns

    Take It Slow This Morning…An overnight mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow has created a few slick spots, but widespread travel issues haven’t been reported this morning.  Thankfully, even a 1° to 2° difference (milder) in surface temperatures overnight helped us out in that regard.  The wintry mix is heading out and we should even see a little sunshine later today.

    As temperatures settle back below freezing tonight, concern is present for the possibility of freezing fog and freezing drizzle in spots into Tuesday morning.  A warm front will then lift north through the state Wednesday helping our brief midweek “thaw” get underway in earnest.  Showers will accompany the milder conditions into Thursday.

    A cold front will settle south through the state Thursday night and colder air will press southeast.  At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure will develop along the tail end of the front and lift northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into early Saturday.  While this has the sure sign to be a significant, impactful winter storm, we’re obviously still a couple days away from being able to nail down precise track and strength.  Stay tuned and keep close tabs on that Friday-Saturday forecast.  We’ll turn much colder once again over the weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″


  • Friday Morning Rambles…

    I. Bitter Cold: We’re adding another morning below zero to an already impressive (and growing) list of frigid lows this winter.  Take a look at these morning lows in the sub-zero club:

    • 12.27.17: – 3°
    • 12.31.17: – 1°
    • 01.01.18: – 10°
    • 01.02.18: – 12°
    • 01.04.18: – 3°

    So far, IND has already dropped to 8° below this morning and we’ll throw another morning of sub-zero lows on the table Saturday (many will fall to between 8° and 15° below) as an arctic high settles overhead.

    II.  Messy Storm: An approaching storm system late in the weekend will spread moisture into the arctic air mass and concern for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain remains Sunday evening into Monday morning.  Overnight data suggests an initial thump of snow followed by several hours of freezing rain for most of central Indiana.  Certainly, close attention is warranted for this event as we progress through the weekend.

    III.  Milder: Once the early week winter event blows by, a milder southwesterly air flow will pull us out of the freezer for a couple of days during the middle of next week.  In fact, highs will likely go north of 50° Wednesday-Thursday.  Break out the shorts!

    IV:  Leader-Follower: An interesting pattern awaits late next week as an arctic cold front pushes east.  Rain will spread into the region late in the week as the first surface low tracks through the Great Lakes.  We think a second low pressure system will develop on the pressing arctic boundary Thursday night into Friday and it’s this low that poses a wintry component to interior portions of the east.  Is that across the Ohio Valley (such as the European model suggests) or along the Appalachian chain (GFS)?  That’s up for debate and there’s no way to settle things right now.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on things and update accordingly.

    V: January Thaw: The overall pattern will get engulfed with milder, Pacific air during the second half of the month and the end result will be a rather dramatic flip from arctic cold to above normal conditions as a classic January “thaw” develops.  After the significant and prolonged arctic feel, many won’t complain of this pattern relaxation.