• Category Archives Winter Storm
  • Monday Morning Notes…

    Bursts of moderate to heavy snow will work across the metro during the next couple hours. This will lead to significant drops in visibility and serve to mess up roadways even more than they currently are. If you don’t have to travel through the morning hours we recommend staying home and allowing road crews time to get things cleaned up.

    Most of the steady accumulating snow will be over with by late morning and we’ll just be left with scattered snow showers through the afternoon hours. Perhaps the bigger story by then will be significant blowing and drifting snow as gusty westerly winds help usher in colder air. If your travels include country roads, or north-south oriented highways, plan on considerable blowing and drifting snow this afternoon and evening.

    We have no changes to our going snowfall forecast with this system.

    Finally, as the arctic front sweeps through the state this afternoon, it’ll likely kick up some intense, blinding snow bursts.  While these won’t last long, they’ll blast through during the evening rush and will serve to dramatically lower visibility.  We note high resolution models are picking up on these snow bursts on forecast radar products.

    We’re left tonight with bitterly cold conditions that will continue to grip the region through midweek. Most of us Tuesday morning will be below zero. A moderating trend will develop by late week, continuing through the weekend!


  • Gas Up The Plows; Arctic Air Returns…

    Highlights:

    • Heavy snow Monday morning
    • Bitter air returns
    • Milder, wet weekend

    Snowy Open To The Week…A vigorous clipper system and associated arctic cold front will drop southeast and spread a swath of snow across the region tonight into Monday.  We expect light snow to encompass most of central Indiana later this evening (between 7p and 10p west to east) before increasing in overall intensity during the overnight.  Periods of moderate to heavy snow can be expected during the mid-morning hours Monday, including impressive snowfall rates at times.  Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination Monday.  Steady snow will give way to scattered snow showers during the afternoon, continuing into Tuesday as fresh arctic air pours into the region.  By the time all is said and done, most of the region can expect a fresh 2″ to 4″, including some locally heavier totals.  The other item on the agenda will be blowing and drifting snow that we’ll have to deal with Monday afternoon through the night and into Tuesday.

    Arctic high pressure will settle overhead Tuesday night through the midweek stretch, allowing sunshine to return, but we’ll remain well below average (average temperatures this time of year include highs in the mid-30s and lows around 20).

    A moderating trend takes place late week, but the “less cold” air will come with gusty southwesterly winds and increasing clouds Friday.  Those clouds will give way to periods of rain along with milder conditions over the weekend as an area of low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 2″ to 4″ (locally heavier totals)
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ to 0.75″


  • Wintry Forecast; New “Plowable” Snow Event Arrives Monday…

    Highlights:

    • Sleet changes to snow
    • New snow and wind maker Monday
    • Bitter air returns

    Double Shot Of Impactful Winter Weather…A mixture of sleet and freezing rain will begin to transition to snow from west to east as we progress through the late morning into the early afternoon.  We don’t have any significant changes to our snowfall forecast (remember this doesn’t include the freezing rain and sleet accumulations that have led to travel issues this morning already).  Embedded snow bands will likely result in enhanced snowfall rates into the early afternoon across central Indiana.

    Precipitation will end for all except southeastern portions of the state by mid-to-late afternoon and then we’re left with the “clean up” from round one.  Saturday and most of Sunday will feature dry and very cold conditions.

    Our attention this weekend will then shift to a potent clipper system that has eyes on central Indiana late Sunday night into Monday.  Snow will overspread the region during this timeframe and given the nature of this event, heavier, more intense snow bursts are also expected to accompany the fresh arctic air that will drill in here Monday evening.  This will be an impactful event not only from the new falling snow, but from problems that wind and drifting will bring, along with a new batch of sub-zero temperatures.  Our snowfall forecast Monday hasn’t changed since yesterday, including widespread additional amounts of 2″ to 4″.

    Dry, but bitterly cold conditions return for the mid and late week stretch.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″

    *Please note the 7-day precipitation forecast outlined above is for Indianapolis proper.


  • Growing Concern For Significant Ice Event…

    Just wanted to touch base on some of the latest data this evening and concern is growing around an extended period of freezing rain and sleet that will develop within a few hours, continuing through the morning rush for the majority of central Indiana.  Some of our high resolution data is suggesting significant amounts of freezing rain overnight- in some cases more than one quarter inch across southwestern and central portions of the state.  This is enough to create concern for the potential of downed tree limbs and power lines in spots.

    Forecast radar (time stamp at 4a below) shows widespread freezing rain developing during the overnight, including the greater Indianapolis area.

    The model finally suggests that freezing rain will begin to transition to sleet around the morning rush hour.

    An icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected to transition to snow late morning into the early afternoon hours across the region.

    We suggest ensuring you charge your electronic devices and cell phones tonight in the event you lose power overnight or Friday morning.  We’ll hope for a faster transition to sleet and snow than data currently suggests, but the concern is certainly present this evening for an impactful ice storm for portions of southwestern and central Indiana.

    The morning commute Friday will be heavily impacted and if you don’t have to travel we recommend remaining indoors.


  • Ice Transitions To A Double Shot Of Snow; Frigid Times Return…

    Highlights:

    • Bye-bye thaw
    • Ice to snow Friday
    • Second snow maker Sunday night

    Active Forecast Period…A breezy southerly flow will dominate our weather today ahead of an approaching cold front.  Showers and unseasonably mild conditions can be expected today.  (Despite the snow lover in me, I will admit that it’s been mighty nice being able to jog outside without worrying about slipping on ice or snow the past couple days).

    Things begin to change in rather dramatic fashion tonight as the cold front presses through the state and allows much colder air to “ooze” back into central Indiana.  At the same time, a wave of energy will track northeast along the cold front and help spread more widespread moisture into the colder air at the surface.  We expect rain to begin mixing with and changing to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain after midnight across western and central portions of the state, and closer to 5a-6a across eastern Indiana.  Eventually, as the entire column of air cools, icy precipitation will transition to snow.  If the sleet to snow transition occurs faster, snowfall totals will be at the higher end of the first call numbers outlined below.  Should sleet hold on for a longer period of time, snowfall amounts will be on the lower end of forecast totals.  We think snow will end around noon west of the city, but steady snow will hang on much longer across eastern sections of the viewing area- well into the evening hours.

    Here’s our first call snowfall forecast for Friday.  While this doesn’t include freezing rain amounts, we think a glaze up to 0.10″ is a good bet – especially on elevated and exposed surfaces.

    Dry conditions will return Saturday along with a much colder feel.  Quiet times won’t last long as another snow system will quickly begin to impact the state Sunday evening into Monday.  Widespread steady snow is expected to develop and will actually be a more uniform, bigger, event for most of the viewing area.  We’ll add in wind and arctic air which will lead to blowing and drifting issues as the day progresses Monday into Tuesday.  Here’s our first call for additional snow amounts Sunday evening-Monday.

    The forecast period will wrap up dry and bitterly cold.  With a fresh snowpack down, it’s safe to say we’ll add at least another night to the sub-zero “club!”

    Stay tuned, friends!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ to 0.75″

    *Please note the 7-day precipitation forecast outlined above is for Indianapolis proper.  


  • Brief Thaw; Severe Winter Event Looms For A Portion Of The Region…

    Highlights:

    • Fog and drizzle
    • Major winter storm looms
    • Frigid air returns

    Brief Thaw; Major Winter Storm On Deck…The short-term will be dominated by low clouds and areas of fog, along with patchy drizzle.  Areas of freezing fog and drizzle are possible early Wednesday morning before conditions “warm” in earnest through the afternoon and evening.

    A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday with showers and gusty southerly winds.  This southerly air flow will deliver a briefly milder time of things during the day Thursday before the cold front settles south Thursday night.  As this transpires, surface low pressure will organize along the southern end of the boundary before tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.

    We continue to favor a track up west of the spine of the Appalachians and note some of the more progressive data is beginning to correct west to align closer with the other guidance that’s been spitting out big snow numbers over the past few days.  Before we discuss snow, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall across the region late Thursday night into early Friday.  We expect precipitation to transition to all snow Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday.  At times, heavy snow is likely.

    While we aren’t ready to lay out an accumulation map just yet, the heaviest snow axis will likely include 8″ to 12″+ amounts somewhere through central portions of the state.  We’ll aim to provide a first call snowfall map this time tomorrow.  Furthermore, there will also be a wind component to this storm.  What’ll initially be a wet, heavy snow will turn more “powdery” in nature as arctic air gets pulled into the storm.  That powder will get blown and drifted about Friday night and Saturday and travel will be significantly impacted.

    Frigid conditions will return over the weekend before another accumulating snow pushes into town Monday.  Behind this snow maker, a brutal push of sub-zero air is likely next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 6″+
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″


  • Gloomy Stretch; Ohio Valley Winter Storm Brewing…

    Highlights:

    • Foggy days
    • Late week winter storm
    • Much colder air returns

    Low Beam Weather…Widespread low clouds, fog, and areas of drizzle will impact the region as we progress through the next couple days.  If venturing out early this morning, be extra careful as sub-freezing temperatures combined with the moisture has created slick spots- particularly on side streets and sidewalks.

    A southerly flow will take control briefly Wednesday evening into Thursday and help lead to a quick “thaw,” along with more widespread rain showers Thursday.  This is in association with a cold front that will sink south through the state Thursday night into Friday morning.  As this is taking place, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end of the cold front and track northeast.  That low will spread moisture back into what will be an airmass turning much colder Friday into Saturday.  The end result will be a potentially significant event of an icy mix (sleet and freezing rain) transitioning to snow Friday into Saturday.  Much colder air will pour in here over the weekend and additional upper energy will result in widespread snow early next week.

    If you have travel plans Friday into Saturday, please keep abreast of the latest forecast.  A significant event looms, but we’re still a couple of days from being able to put the heaviest snow zone in “concrete.”

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ to 1.00″