• Category Archives Windy
  • Monday Evening Rambles: Looking Towards October….

    Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.

    Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…

    European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.


  • Pleasant Labor Day Weekend; Another Cool Shot Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Dry Labor Day weekend
    • Cold front arrives early Tuesday
    • Another cool shot next week

    Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday.  Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches.  We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east.  Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday.  We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning.  Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.

    A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday.  Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer.  That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state).  Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region.  With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.

    Tropics:  Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week.  It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely.  In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Grab The Jacket!

    Highlights:

    • Harvey’s remnants
    • Windy and October-like
    • Improving weather for Labor Day weekend
    • Another blast of cool air next week

    Is It The First Of September Or October?!  Harvey’s remnants will track northeast along the Ohio River (tonight) and into the central Appalachians (Saturday).  The combination of a tight pressure gradient between the circulation around what’s left of Harvey and an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in strong and gusty easterly winds to wrap up the work week.  Factor in temperatures that will run close to 20° below normal and jackets will be required today!  We don’t have any changes in regards to our rainfall forecast: heaviest and steadiest rain will remain downstate.  Lighter showers will begin to overspread central parts of the state, including Indianapolis, later this evening.

    Early showers will pull off to the east Saturday and we should end the day with increasing sunshine.  Those improvements will continue Sunday into Labor Day with dry conditions.

    A cold front will approach early next week and result in an increasingly windy regime Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  The front will sweep through the state Tuesday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms followed by another shot of unseasonably cool air by the middle of next week.  Lingering upper level energy will result in spotty showers Wednesday with the cooler conditions.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″


  • Pleasant Now; Very Cool, Wet (For Some), And Windy Close To The Week…

    Highlights:

    • Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
    • Harvey’s remnants impact the region
    • Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day

    Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather.  Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.

    Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants.  The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds.  While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state.  Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely).  The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday.  Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready.

    Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.

    We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself.  Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday.  Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week.  Get set for an October-like feel…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″


  • Big Changes Loom…

    Highlights:

    • Wet and stormy at times to close the work week
    • Much cooler air ahead
    • Pleasant weekend on deck

    Summer Weather Gives Way To An Early Fall Feel…Seasonably warm and humid conditions will help power widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms again Wednesday.  More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Thursday evening into early Friday as a cold front sweeps through the state.  Winds will shift around to the northwest and turn gusty Friday afternoon, helping usher in an unseasonably cool air mass for the first Friday of August.  This cooler regime will remain with us through the weekend.  A quick-moving light shower is possible over the weekend, but most of the area will remain rain-free with mixed clouds and sun.

    Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms early next week (and really throughout the majority of the first half of August) with scattered rain chances returning to our forecast.  Looking beyond the current 7-day period shows our next storm system of significance approaching mid-to-late next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall:  0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier amounts)


  • Tuesday Morning Rambles: Shower Chances Return Today…

    1.)  2017 continues to fly along.  August features 3.13″ of rain during the month and temperatures that start out with an average high and low of 84°/ 65° and 83°/ 62° to end the month.  Needless to say, temperatures this weekend will feature well below normal conditions that will feel more like it should jumping forward 6 weeks, or so.

    2.)  Moisture returns today and results in scattered shower coverage this afternoon and Wednesday.  Most of both days will remain rain-free, but don’t be surprised by a passing shower at times.

    Scattered showers return this evening across central Indiana.

    3.)  More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as a strong cold front presses into the state.  Localized heavy rain is possible and rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ can be expected (with locally heavier amounts under stronger storms) between now and Friday.

    4.)  As surface low pressure wraps up over the Great Lakes Friday, it’ll help pull unseasonably cool air south into the state, along with gusty northwest winds.  In fact, temperatures will remain steady or slowly fall as we move through the day Friday.  It sure won’t feel like the first weekend of August as temperatures tumble into the 50s area-wide Saturday morning.

    Temperatures will feel more like late-September this weekend.


  • More Heavy Rain Today, But Improving Conditions As We Move Into The Weekend…

    After a relative “lull” in the rainfall coverage and intensity overnight, rain is expanding in coverage and intensity yet again this morning.  While there will be a rather sharp cut-off to the west, additional heavy rains are ahead from northwestern Indianapolis ‘burbs (including places such as Brownsburg, Whitestown, and Sheridan), Indianapolis, and points south and east.

    HRRR simulated radar shows this rain shield nicely as we progress through mid and late morning.

    Additional rainfall of 1″-1.5″ is likely from Indianapolis and points south and east with this band of rain before drier weather finally works in here this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, expect continued windy, cold, and raw conditions today as temperatures remain in the 40s this afternoon, including wind chills in the 30s.

    Looking ahead, one last batch of rain will arrive on the scene Saturday morning.

    We’ll finally get rid of the rain and introduce a drier regime Saturday afternoon into Sunday, including a sunny close to the weekend.  With the drier air, overnight lows will fall to frosty levels Sunday and Monday mornings (lower to middle 30s).

    More on the longer range this weekend!