• Category Archives Weekly Outlook
  • Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

    The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

    Week 1
    Week 2
    Weeks 3-4

    Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

    • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
    • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

    Now…the CFSv2:

    Weeks 1-2
    Weeks 3-4

    Key take-aways:

    • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

    While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

    To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

  • JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • An unseasonably cool close to July
    • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
    • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

    Week 1:

    A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

    Week 2:

    The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.

  • JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
    • Seasonal pattern takes hold
    • Heat builds across the Northeast region

    Week 1:

    Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

    Week 2:

    It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

  • Upcoming Week Headliners…

    I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

    A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

    II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

    Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

    III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

    Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

    IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

    Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

  • JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
    • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
    • Active NW flow regime to open July

    Week 1:  

    The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

    Week 2:  

    The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

    Weeks 3-4:  

    As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

  • Quiet Open To The Work Week Turns Stormy By Midweek…

    After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead.  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon.  Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon.  Enjoy!

    High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week.  This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine.  With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings.  Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

    High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.

    A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period.  Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.

    Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.

    We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north.  Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend.  We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.

    Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

  • Looking At The Week Ahead…

    The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times.  Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana.  Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!

    Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.

    Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state.  A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.

    High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).

    There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently.  The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower.  We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly.  The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.

  • Word On The Weeklies…

    New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

    The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

    Week 1:

    Week 2:

    Weeks 3-4:

    The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

  • Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

    1.)  It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana.  Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.

    Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.

    2.)  Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week.  There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast.  Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.

    Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.

    3.)  We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year.  In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.

    Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.

    4.)  Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week.  That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best.  It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week.  Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.”  One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period.  In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.

    The weather turns active next weekend.

  • Winter Having A Tough Time Finding Staying Power…

    Through (5) weeks of meteorological winter, it’s been a frustrating time for snow and cold weather enthusiasts across the beautiful state of Indiana.  We’ve seen a few storms cut into the central Lakes, taking their respected snow swaths northwest of central Indiana.  Despite an “overachieving” arctic wave on the 13th and an icy glaze event the following Friday night, it’s been a rather uneventful winter so far.  In ironic fashion, a significant winter event is poised to impact portions of the Lower 48 this weekend, but the general consensus in modeling is for this event not to cut northwest, but, instead, remain suppressed and impact portions of the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians with heavy snow.  Now, sure, there’s still time for this to “correct” north, but as of this writing, there’s just as much argument in the suppressed idea.

    Admittedly, we, personally, believed we would be much farther along in the snowfall department than we are through the first 1/3 of meteorological winter.  Looking ahead, there really isn’t much to “like” about the longer term data as far as getting snow prospects. Sure, an arctic shot is still inbound come mid week with very cold air.  We note AK ridging and blocking “trying” to develop over Greenland.

    gfs-ens_z500amean_namer_1This will take us through mid week and into the weekend with lows in the single digits and lower teens and highs generally in the lower and middle 20s.  We still need to watch Thursday evening-night for a wave of low pressure that may attempt to deliver light snow, but this doesn’t look like a significant event from this distance.

    Additionally, we’ll keep a close eye on the weekend for the prospects of snow, but confidence remains very low in regards to this system.  The GFS ensemble members show the wide range of possibilities Saturday.  Taken verbatim, the respected (or not ;-)) solutions, range from “no snow for you” scenarios to a big hit.

    gefs_ptype_ens_ky_22To further complicate matters, the European and Canadian solutions are much less robust and result in a more suppressed scenario.  Forecasters (including yours truly) can only wish for the days to return of worrying about respected snow/ mix/ rain lines amongst the various data, versus the present time of models showing a storm only to take it away from run-to-run and other modeling not even showing the storm.

    But once to mid-month, the overall pattern is forecast to break down yet again and results in a much warmer look for the east.

    gfs-ens_z500amean_namer_12That brings us to our next point and that’s the modeling performance, itself.  For really the better part of a year now, modeling has been poor, at best- even in the short-term solutions.  More recently speaking to the last few months, I can’t recall model data ever performing worse (13 years of forecasting experience).  It leads to a very low confidence forecast in basically anything beyond (7) days right now.  Additionally, conflicting signals are present (as posted this morning, the AO, EPO, WPO favor cold versus the MJO strongly favoring warmth in the longer range).  The signals are competing with themselves to try and take over the overall weather pattern for mid and late winter, but I’m not sure we’re really ever going to get to a point where we “lock-in” to any one particular warm or cold pattern for any sustained length of time this winter.  As far as snow goes, there’s no way in early January you’ll ever see us greatly alter the long-standing ideas posted originally in the winter outlook.  When a given city averages 26″ of snow on the winter, it only takes one storm to come along and put you in a “good spot” (relative to average).  That said, we hear your frustrations (and know they will only grow louder this weekend if our friends down south cash in on the snowy goods).  Once to late January, we’ll revisit this idea.

    The one thing we try to do here is eliminate the “noise” in the short, mid, and long range data by analyzing it all and building a forecast using a blend of the said data, along with teleconnections, etc.  You’ll never see us update our forecast based on a model run every time in comes in.  We don’t buy into the idea of “knee jerk” forecasting.  Let’s sit back and watch the next few days unfold.  Unfortunately, in this weather pattern, we just don’t see confidence increasing in forecasts much past the 3-7 day window at this juncture.