• Category Archives Weather Rambles
  • Wednesday Evening Rambles…Cold Reinforcements Tonight; Weekend Moderation…

    I.  A look at the current snowpack shows the northwest flow nicely, and another storm is just missing central Indiana to the north and northeast this evening (not included in this morning’s snowpack update).  The southern Appalachians have also been capitalizing in this northwest flow pattern, not to mention the southern stream event that dumped hefty snows on the Deep South.

    II.  While the sticking snows will miss us this go around, scattered snow showers will impact central IN overnight into early Thursday morning.  There’s also still the potential of a skinny lake effect snow band to impact a narrow portion of western and north-central IN early Thursday.

    III.  Reinforcing cold air will plunge south Thursday.  Highs will remain below freezing along with wind chill values in the 10s most of the day.

    IV: A milder southwesterly air flow will result in slightly “warmer” temperatures this weekend (mid 40s for highs Saturday) before showers arrive to close the weekend.  Despite the slight relaxation of the cold, this will come with a gusty breeze over the weekend.


  • Tuesday Evening Rambles: Wintry Weather And More Christmas Week Chatter…

    I.) The pattern we’re currently dealing with is one that presents multiple challenges in the near term.  East-central and northeastern portions of the state have gotten in on the snow act today, but, so far, most of central Indiana has missed out on the snowy goods. With such a fast-paced northwest flow, we have to remain on guard for potential “surprises” in this pattern.  Perhaps the HRRR is beginning to pick up on this.  Latest runs want to deliver a “pop” of snow Wednesday morning, associated with “warm” air advection (WAA).  We’ll monitor tonight.

    9a forecast radar Wednesday

    II.  The northwest flow will continue to provide disturbances plenty capable of producing periods of snow again Wednesday evening through the end of the week.  Are these monster storms?  Hardly, but they can “suddenly” become sufficient enough to create travel problems given the pattern.  For those who live across the northern half of the state, plan to keep close tabs to local forecasts if you have travel plans through the end of the week.

    III.  A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region.  For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs.  It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time.  The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch.  As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm.  Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups.  Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…


  • Warmth Dominates Now, But A Cold & Wintry Pattern Is Lurking For The Holidays…

    The short-term weather pattern will continue to be dominated by rather “boring” conditions for this time of year, along with much milder than normal air.  A weak frontal system will swing through here Thursday and while a light shower is possible, that’s really the only significant (if you want to call it that) weather feature through the upcoming 7-10 days.

    In addition to the rather quiet weather, relative warmth will dominate as we open December.  When “normals” feature lows in the upper 20s and highs in the lower 40s, actual overnight lows will only fall into the low-mid 30s and highs will reach the middle to upper 50s.

    When we look ahead, the shelf life of this warmth is certainly limited.  The GEFS showcases this shift in the pattern from a warm open to the month towards a much colder pattern very nicely.  The GEFS has other model support, as well.

    This is the type of dramatic shift in the overall pattern that not only threatens to “lock in” a colder than average regime, but potentially lead to plenty of wintry mischief to boot, and just in time for the holiday season.

    There’s teleconnection support for the wintry shift, as well, leading to further confidence of a significant move towards cold, and potentially snowy/ icy, conditions as the true holiday and Christmas season approaches.

    To summarize, while unseasonably quiet and mild conditions will rule in the short-term, Mother Nature sure seems to have an attitude of making up for “lost time” in the medium to longer range.  This is the type pattern that we’ll have to monitor the potential of some sort of leader-follower scenario as the transition from warm to cold takes place, and given the blocky nature of the pattern, it sure seems like we’re heading into a busy time of things from a wintry perspective mid and late month.

    Perhaps this will be the scene as Christmas time nears across the Mid West, including central Indiana?  Time will tell…


  • Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

    For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

    A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

    Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

    It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

    An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

    The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

    In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

    Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

    A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

    Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…


  • A Note And Some Perspective On Next Week’s New Warm Surge…

    After a cool, fall-like, weekend, we still expect a new surge of summer-like air to return next week as a strong (and expansive) ridge of high pressure “balloons” over the eastern half of the nation.

    This will be enough to send temperatures into the 85° to 90° range by the early to middle of next week.  To shed some perspective on that, our averages for early October include low temperatures in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.  For at least a couple of days next week, overnight lows will be much closer to where our afternoon highs should be this time of year.

    There are differences on how modeling handles the evolution of things once past midweek.  The European model has been jumping on a potential wet weather maker and much cooler trend in the medium term (late next week), but the GFS is having none of that- keeping us dry and hot.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and have a fresh 7-day soon!

    Finally, we’re receiving many questions that are centered on whether or not the current overall warm pattern is an indication of what we can expect this winter.  The simple and short answer to that question is an emphatic “no.”  Transitional seasons are fickle, regardless of ENSO state.  Throw in an emerging Nina and all sorts of additional “fun and games” ensue.  With that said, there’s no direct correlation specifically between warm (or cold) patterns this time of year and the winter ahead.  In fact, there’s been many instances where unseasonably warm Octobers give way to cold winters, and vice-versa.

    More later!  Make it a great Friday!


  • Tuesday Morning Rambles…

    I.)  Overnight rain and storms impacted central Indiana during the overnight.  Some of the slow moving storms dumped a quick 2″ of rain in isolated areas, but most ended up accumulating 0.5″-1″.  Additional isolated to widely scattered storm activity is possible today, but many more dry hours than stormy can be expected.

    II.)  A “backdoor” cold front will drop south through the state Thursday and while an isolated storm is possible as the front slips through the area, the bigger deal with be the cooler and breezy finish to the work week (mid-50s for lows Friday morning and highs in the lower-middle 70s).

    III.)  We continue to monitor data for the potential of Harvey’s remnants to impact the region this weekend.  At this time, the greatest risk of heavy rain appears to lie across southern portions of the state, but we’ll include rain in our weekend forecast as far north as central Indiana.  There will be a very sharp cutoff between no rain at all and heavy amounts (2″+), and it appears this dividing line will setup shop across the heart of the state.  Due to Harvey’s forward motion, long lasting heavy rains aren’t anticipated, locally.

    IV.)  The coolest air since last spring is poised to plunge into the region by the early and middle portions of next week.  A strong cold front will push in Labor Day night and result in scattered showers and thunderstorms before an abrupt wind shift to the north.  Things will be feeling more like October rather than September later next week (lows in the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s).


  • Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

    I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

    Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
    Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

    II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

    III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

    IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…