Good Wednesday afternoon! As we analyze the latest data, one thing that screams out to us is that our warmer than normal pattern is going to continue at least for the next couple weeks. That’s not saying we won’t see bouts of cool air (it is October, after all), but it is saying that when you total everything up, we think temperatures are warmer than average, and most likely significantly so, over the next couple weeks.
The PNA is currently driving the pattern and I see nothing to signify a radical change in the near future. Troughs and associated cold air will plunge into the western half of the nation and as they (“they” refers to the cool air masses in this particular case) come east, the air will modify in significant fashion.
Here’s a look at the PNA. We note there’s at least some attempt to get back closer to neutral or slightly positive towards the middle of the month. We’ll keep an eye on this. Should the data remain consistent on signaling a mid month PNA change to positive, that could signal a more sustained cool period for the back end of October.
Latest data for the mid range period suggests a highly amplified look. We feel the European model is the way to lean as the current PNA forecast would lead to a deeper trough and associated colder look for the Plains and points west, with milder conditions here. BTW, my old stomping grounds of Breckenridge, CO should do quite well in the early season snow department with this type of pattern. To be fair, both models are in fairly good agreement here, but we want to emphasize the slightly further west placement of the trough in the 8-10 day seems to be the best idea at this point, per the European.
Speaking of the European, ensemble data suggests a warmer than average, to much warmer than average, pattern persists over the next (10) days, despite a slight “set back” Sunday and Monday. In fact, taken verbatim, the European suggests the 80s return here later next week.
The GFS sees a warmer than normal Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, as well, over the next (16) days.
Finally, the Climate Prediction Center (otherwise referred to as CPC) sees October shaping up like this: warmer than average over our region.
At the end of the day, only Mother Nature will either confirm or deny whether our current thinking is the right one! 🙂 Again, I want to stress we’re not saying that we won’t see bouts of chill through the month of October. That’s not the case at all. We’re just trying to make sure we’re clear with our thinking over the next couple of weeks that we remain in a pattern that should yield additional above average warmth.
Your complete forecast will be posted here later this evening, Indy!