• Category Archives Unseasonably Warm
  • Warmth Dominates Now, But A Cold & Wintry Pattern Is Lurking For The Holidays…

    The short-term weather pattern will continue to be dominated by rather “boring” conditions for this time of year, along with much milder than normal air.  A weak frontal system will swing through here Thursday and while a light shower is possible, that’s really the only significant (if you want to call it that) weather feature through the upcoming 7-10 days.

    In addition to the rather quiet weather, relative warmth will dominate as we open December.  When “normals” feature lows in the upper 20s and highs in the lower 40s, actual overnight lows will only fall into the low-mid 30s and highs will reach the middle to upper 50s.

    When we look ahead, the shelf life of this warmth is certainly limited.  The GEFS showcases this shift in the pattern from a warm open to the month towards a much colder pattern very nicely.  The GEFS has other model support, as well.

    This is the type of dramatic shift in the overall pattern that not only threatens to “lock in” a colder than average regime, but potentially lead to plenty of wintry mischief to boot, and just in time for the holiday season.

    There’s teleconnection support for the wintry shift, as well, leading to further confidence of a significant move towards cold, and potentially snowy/ icy, conditions as the true holiday and Christmas season approaches.

    To summarize, while unseasonably quiet and mild conditions will rule in the short-term, Mother Nature sure seems to have an attitude of making up for “lost time” in the medium to longer range.  This is the type pattern that we’ll have to monitor the potential of some sort of leader-follower scenario as the transition from warm to cold takes place, and given the blocky nature of the pattern, it sure seems like we’re heading into a busy time of things from a wintry perspective mid and late month.

    Perhaps this will be the scene as Christmas time nears across the Mid West, including central Indiana?  Time will tell…


  • Quiet Weather Continues…

    Highlights:

    • Dry and quiet weather remains
    • Shower chance Thursday
    • Sunny weekend ahead

    Boring Pattern Remains…An eerily quiet weather pattern will remain intact as we progress through the upcoming week.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwesterly breeze later today into Tuesday and this will help boost afternoon highs very near the 60° mark.

    A weak cold front will pass through Thursday and while a shower will be possible as the front moves through the region, this won’t be a significant weather event.  Slightly cooler air (not cold by any means) will arrive behind the cold front this weekend.  The bigger news will be the continuation of extended quiet and sunny weather.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.10″


  • Mostly Tranquil…

    Highlights:

    • Colder than normal, but dry
    • Windy, but mostly dry this weekend
    • Moderating ahead of the next storm

    Dry For The Big Travel Day…A cold front is passing through the state as we type this forecast with a light band of moisture (light rain ending as light snow).  This will serve up cold, but dry conditions for the big travel day, and continued dry conditions Thanksgiving Day.  “Average” temperatures Thanksgiving feature lows around 30° and highs in the middle 40s, and we’ll be pretty close to those values.  Black Friday will feature dry, but increasingly breezy conditions.

    Thankfully, weather conditions will be tranquil for “Iron Bowl Saturday” (WARRRR EAGLE)!!!  With the exception of an early shower, look for dry conditions along with a shifting breeze that will help push colder air in for the second half of the weekend.

    Those chilly conditions won’t last long as we get into an increasingly gusty southwesterly flow and milder conditions next week ahead of the next approaching storm system…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.10″


  • “Block Ready To Rock?” Cold Pattern Developing Around Thanksgiving…

    Model data continues to suggest a Greenland block will develop as we progress into late-November.  This kind of pattern creates a “log jam” of sorts in the weather pattern and is the type pattern notorious for unseasonably cold regimes across our region.  The overall agreement between various models raises our confidence in this pattern unfolding as Thanksgiving nears.

    Such a pattern illustrated above, per the European ensemble (image 1) and the GFS ensemble (image 2), would help drill a tongue of unseasonably cold air through the northern Plains, into the Mid West, and across the East.

    A look at the 00z teleconnections this morning shows 3/4 “big boy” drivers going to that cold look for late-November, as well:

    We’ve been discussing early snow cover across Canada and the northern tier for weeks and how models would have to “correct” colder as they realize the air masses traveling over the snowpack won’t be able to modify as they normally would without that snowpack.  The differences between this November and last are startling and show how the early snowpack is beginning to “feedback” on itself leading to early-season cold air.

    2016 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:

    2017 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:

    Given the overall look to the pattern downstream, I anticipate the cold will continue to “press” and eventually overwhelm the pattern east as we progress through the second half of the month.

    To close, we expect a developing Greenland Block to help drive an unseasonably cold late-November, including the Thanksgiving holiday.  This is the type pattern that can also help generate early season wintry “fun and games,” however it’s far too early to be specific with any sorts of potential wintry events that may eventually come in this pattern.  Stay tuned.


  • Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Clouds more bark than bite today
    • Stormy setup Sunday
    • Trending colder next week

    All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

    Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

    All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Growing Severe Threat Sunday…

    We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather.  From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.

    A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday.  Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s.  While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat.  We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual.  Late November 2013 comes to mind.

    It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates.  We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.

    A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.

     


  • Not Much Sunshine In This Forecast…

    Highlights:

    • Milder times
    • Unsettled heading into the weekend
    • Colder next week and remaining unsettled

    Vitamin D Needed…While we’re going through a milder stretch of weather between now and the end of the weekend, it’ll come with considerable cloudiness and periods of rain at times.

    Most of today will only feature light passing showers and mist, but a clap or two of thunder can be expected tonight as a cold front passes through the state.  The air mass behind the front won’t be particularly cold and a seasonable day is on tap to wrap up our work week Friday.

    A warmer southwesterly air flow will return this weekend and this will help boost temperatures to levels as much as 15° above average Sunday.  Scattered showers can be expected Saturday into Sunday and we’re monitoring the potential of a stronger storm Sunday afternoon and evening.  You’ll want to stay tuned for future updates on Sunday’s storm threat.

    As we rumble into a new work week, the active and wet pattern will continue and we’ll add a colder feel to the equation, as well.  Monday through Wednesday will feature a “step down” regime: seasonable conditions Monday before turning colder than normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″