• Category Archives Unseasonably Warm
  • Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

    I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

    Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
    Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

    II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

    III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

    IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…


  • Warm And Muggy; “Splash And Dash” Storms…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered storms
    • Saturday showers
    • Surge of heat ahead of a late week cool down next week

    More Dry Time Than Stormy…A warm and moist southwesterly air flow will have things feeling quite muggy today.  This tropical feel will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms by evening, continuing into tonight.  While everyone won’t get wet today, those that do have the potential of picking up a quick 1″ in a short period of time.  A cold front will cross the state Thursday and will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going.  While this isn’t a uniform soaking, we’ll take what we can get as things have been bone dry around these parts lately.

    After a quiet and slightly cooler Friday, an upper level disturbance will deliver another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday.  Dry weather will return to wrap up the weekend Sunday.

    Looking ahead, a surge of heat, albeit brief, will have things feeling quite toasty around the Mid West early next week.  We think we flirt with, or exceed, the 90° mark both Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest.  Behind the front, data still paints a much cooler regime for the second half of next week; fall-like!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • Gorgeous Weekend; Humidity Returns Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Beautiful weekend dialed up
    • Humidity returns
    • Scattered storms late week

    Refreshing Conditions Continue…A cold front settled south of the region last night, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to filter in during the overnight.  That sets the stage for the weekend as we can expect dry and refreshing conditions, along with below average temperatures.

    Dry skies will continue into the new work week, but humidity will slowly begin to increase once we get to midweek.  A southwesterly air flow will develop ahead of our next storm system that will deliver scattered thunderstorms by Thursday.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Friday morning, however, early indications suggest next weekend is also dry.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

    Cool August:  The month has opened impressively cool with a CONUS average anomaly of – 2.75° through the 10th.  More specifically to Indianapolis, we’re running 3° below normal through the 11th.


  • JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • An unseasonably cool close to July
    • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
    • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

    Week 1:

    A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

    Week 2:

    The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.


  • Periods Of Storms Interrupt An Otherwise Hot, Humid Regime…

    Highlights:

    • Periods of storms
    • Heat and humidity makes things uncomfortable
    • Drier early next week

    Mother Nature Calls…Many awoke early this morning as a complex of thunderstorms rumbled southeast into central Indiana.  Some local rain gauges are already registering 2″+ across the region.  Eventually, we think clouds will thin enough later today to allow temperatures to zoom close to 90°.  Factor in the moisture-rich nature of our air mass and heat indices will approach 105° later this afternoon.

    We’ll keep mention of scattered storms this evening and while most of the daytime Saturday looks dry, we’ll have to keep a close eye on Saturday night as models try to deliver another round of storms into central Indiana.  Ingredients will be in place for the potential of severe thunderstorms Saturday night, with damaging winds being the biggest concern from a severe perspective.

    A frontal boundary will push south and we’ll finally begin to see humidity levels fall as we close the weekend and open next week.  It’ll feel very refreshing during the Monday-Tuesday stretch.

    Heat, humidity, and storm chances return by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1″ – 3″


  • Increasingly Hot And Humid…

    Highlights:

    • Increasingly hot and humid
    • Isolated storm coverage becomes more widespread
    • Relief next week

    Air You Can Wear…The big weather story will be the increasingly hot and humid feel as we progress through the week and on into the weekend.  The combination of dew points in the 70s and wet soils across the state should “beat back” the heat from getting to where it otherwise could (mid-upper 90s), but it’ll feel oppressive, nonetheless.  Plan to hydrate and wear cool, lightweight clothing if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time.

    While we can’t completely rule out a renegade storm through Friday, most neighborhoods will remain free of any rain through the remainder of the work week.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend into early next week as the transition from hot, humid weather begins to give way to a more pleasant feel.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Monday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.

    2.)  While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.

    3.)  The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend.  While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week.  Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.

    4.)  Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last.  Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.”  You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain.  As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.


  • Afternoon And Evening Rumbles…

    Highlights:

    • T-storms arrive this afternoon
    • Heating up this week
    • Stormy periods late-week

    Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day!  The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening.  One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).

    As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week.  Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel.  Prepare to sweat.

    Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch.  Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″