• Category Archives Unseasonably Warm
  • Another Cold Week; Snow Showers Develop Overnight…

    Highlights:

    • Snow showers develop overnight
    • Another arctic shot
    • Milder for the weekend

    Snow Showers Develop Overnight…Another fast moving upper air disturbance is on the move southeast this morning and will result in a mostly cloudy and blustery open to the work week. As cold air advection (CAA) kicks in overnight and Tuesday, snow showers will develop across the region.  We’ll also note the potential of a more intense and persistent lake effect band setting up across east-central Indiana (where a couple inches will accumulate Tuesday).  If your travels take you into eastern and northeastern portions of the state Tuesday, prepare for sudden drops in visibility and slick travel.

    Additional upper level energy will scoot through here during the middle part of the work week and while this will help to reinforce the cold, it’ll also provide scattered snow showers.

    We’ll switch gears and get into a briefly milder southwesterly air flow over the upcoming weekend.  Strong and gusty southwest winds will aid in giving a boost to the mercury, but showers will make for a damp end to the weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting (for most) to 2″ across east-central Indiana
    • Rainfall: 0.25″


  • Here Comes Winter…

    Highlights:

    • Falling temperatures Tuesday
    • Much colder
    • Active northwest flow

    Winter Engaged…Showers and embedded thunderstorms will rumble across the state during the overnight as a cold front draws closer.  This is a “game changer” of a cold front, separating anomalous warmth over the past few days to a locked and loaded winter pattern.  Temperatures will fall through the day Tuesday and just enough wrap around moisture will be present to support mention of evening flurries.

    Morning scattered snow showers will continue early Wednesday before a reinforcing blast of arctic air blows into town at night.  This will set up a frigid close to the work week and feature a fast paced northwest flow pattern into the upcoming weekend.  We’ll have to remain very focused on upper level energy over the weekend.  Models have been struggling (as expected given the pattern) on the specifics and we know this type regime can overachieve in the snow department.  As things stand now, a period of snow showers with light accumulation still seems like a good bet Friday into Saturday.

    Another (potentially more significant) snow event looms early next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″


  • Winter Sets In…

    Highlights:

    • Showers and t-storms Monday night
    • Turning much colder
    • Snowy close to the work week

    Changes Loom…We couldn’t have asked for a more delightful weekend to open December.  Plentiful sunshine helped warm afternoon highs into the 55-60 degree range both Saturday and Sunday across central Indiana.  We sure hope you found a way to get out and enjoy it as major changes loom.

    A cold front responsible for ushering in these changes will blow through the state Tuesday morning.  Ahead of the cold front, look for a line of showers and thunderstorms Monday night.  For the most part, rain should be southeast of our region before the morning rush Tuesday.  Winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much colder air mass through the day.  This will set the tone for what the rest of the week will hold (and for that matter, most of the rest of the month).

    Cold, dry conditions will be with us for midweek before a vigorous upper level disturbance races southeast across the Ohio Valley to close the work week.  Snow showers and unseasonably cold conditions are a given Thursday night through Saturday morning and we’ll have to continue to monitor things closely for the prospects of the season’s first accumulating snow Friday.  These type events have been known to “overachieve.”

    The cold pattern is just setting in and shows no signs of departing in the longer range.  Additional wintry “mischief” looms next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Enjoy The Mild Weather While You Have It…

    Highlights:

    • Mild open to December
    • Early week rain and storms
    • Hello winter

    Great Weekend By December Standards…High pressure will build in overnight and provide beautiful weather to open December.  We’ll enjoy plentiful sunshine and well above average temperatures through the weekend and on into early next week.  Take our word for it: Enjoy it while you have it!

    An approaching storm system will lead to increasing clouds later Monday along with an increasingly gusty southwest breeze Monday afternoon into the evening.  A cold front will move through the state Tuesday with widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms.  Strong and gusty winds will continue.  Once the front sweeps through the state, falling temperatures can be expected Tuesday evening.

    The true shift to winter will begin the middle of next week, complete with MUCH colder air, gusty northwest winds, and scattered snow showers.  Speaking of winter, if you’re a fan of the cold and snow for the holiday season, the upcoming pattern change will put a smile on your face.  A prolonged stretch of cold and wintry conditions should continue through the holidays and into the new year…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 1″ – 2″


  • Quiet Weather Continues; Big Changes Loom…

    Highlights:

    • Weak front passes through Thursday
    • Sun-filled, mild weekend
    • Big changes await

    Enjoying The Relatively Quiet Weather While We Can…Dry conditions will remain in place today before a weak frontal boundary passes through the state Thursday.  Enough moisture will return in advance of this front to help spark a couple of light showers, but this won’t be a big deal and several neighborhoods won’t pick up any rainfall.

    We’ll get back to dry, quiet weather over the weekend as high pressure builds in.  Sunshine and mild weather will continue.  Given what looms, it’ll be a perfect weekend to complete any lingering outdoor work or get those Christmas lights up!

    Big changes await next week as winter gets ready to settle in.  The leading edge of the cold air will be accompanied by showers as we open the work week.  Easily the coldest air of the season awaits for later next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Warmth Dominates Now, But A Cold & Wintry Pattern Is Lurking For The Holidays…

    The short-term weather pattern will continue to be dominated by rather “boring” conditions for this time of year, along with much milder than normal air.  A weak frontal system will swing through here Thursday and while a light shower is possible, that’s really the only significant (if you want to call it that) weather feature through the upcoming 7-10 days.

    In addition to the rather quiet weather, relative warmth will dominate as we open December.  When “normals” feature lows in the upper 20s and highs in the lower 40s, actual overnight lows will only fall into the low-mid 30s and highs will reach the middle to upper 50s.

    When we look ahead, the shelf life of this warmth is certainly limited.  The GEFS showcases this shift in the pattern from a warm open to the month towards a much colder pattern very nicely.  The GEFS has other model support, as well.

    This is the type of dramatic shift in the overall pattern that not only threatens to “lock in” a colder than average regime, but potentially lead to plenty of wintry mischief to boot, and just in time for the holiday season.

    There’s teleconnection support for the wintry shift, as well, leading to further confidence of a significant move towards cold, and potentially snowy/ icy, conditions as the true holiday and Christmas season approaches.

    To summarize, while unseasonably quiet and mild conditions will rule in the short-term, Mother Nature sure seems to have an attitude of making up for “lost time” in the medium to longer range.  This is the type pattern that we’ll have to monitor the potential of some sort of leader-follower scenario as the transition from warm to cold takes place, and given the blocky nature of the pattern, it sure seems like we’re heading into a busy time of things from a wintry perspective mid and late month.

    Perhaps this will be the scene as Christmas time nears across the Mid West, including central Indiana?  Time will tell…


  • Quiet Weather Continues…

    Highlights:

    • Dry and quiet weather remains
    • Shower chance Thursday
    • Sunny weekend ahead

    Boring Pattern Remains…An eerily quiet weather pattern will remain intact as we progress through the upcoming week.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwesterly breeze later today into Tuesday and this will help boost afternoon highs very near the 60° mark.

    A weak cold front will pass through Thursday and while a shower will be possible as the front moves through the region, this won’t be a significant weather event.  Slightly cooler air (not cold by any means) will arrive behind the cold front this weekend.  The bigger news will be the continuation of extended quiet and sunny weather.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.10″