• Category Archives Unseasonably Cool Weather
  • Sunny Days; Pattern Change On The Horizon…

    Highlights:

    • Extended stretch of dry, sunny weather
    • Late weekend cold front
    • Much colder close to the month looms

    Ideal, Crisp Fall Day…Sheltered, lower lying communities are waking up to temperatures in the middle and upper 30s this morning with patchy frost.  The rest of us are in the lower to middle 40s with just enough breeze preventing a deeper overnight fall.  All of us we’ll moderate into the mid and upper 60s this afternoon under a clear sky.  Those mostly sunny conditions will continue into mid and late week with moderating temperatures.

    Our next storm system will arrive during the second half of the weekend in the form of a cold front.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the front.  Cooler air will invade behind the frontal passage, but the true chilly stuff will press in early next week.  Speaking of chilly weather, medium and longer range data continues to paint a cold close to the month and open to November.  Warm costumes will be needed for trick-or-treating this year.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Falling Temperatures Today; Dry Weather Returns…

    Highlights: 

    • Temperatures fall through the day
    • Sunshine returns this week
    • Pleasant stretch of weather ahead

    Jackets And Sweaters Required By This Afternoon…A cold front will continue to march east this morning and this will push a broken band of showers east through the state.  Rainfall amounts won’t be significant, but will be enough to be a nuisance on the way to church or brunch this morning.  This afternoon, we’ll notice an increasingly gusty breeze and falling temperatures.  While it’s mild this morning, it’ll feel much cooler as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Jackets and sweaters will be required!

    High pressure will settle overhead for the upcoming week and this will lead to an extended period of dry, pleasant weather.  Temperatures will moderate from seasonably cool early-week to unseasonably mild by late-week.  As expected, the late September and early October warmth (particularly warm overnight lows) really stunted our fall foliage this year.  That said, the cool, calm nights ahead this week will be sufficient enough to at least ignite some of the remaining leaves on trees for what should be a couple weeks of “decent” color ahead.

    Longer term, there are big goings on behind the scenes that will help drive a dramatically different weather pattern to wrap up the month of October and head into November.  Heads up to the parents out there, you may want to nudge the kiddos into picking a warm costume this Halloween…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Weekend Warmup Ahead Of The Coolest Air Of The Season…

    Highlights:

    • Weekend Warmup
    • Scattered showers Sunday morning
    • Gusty winds and falling temperatures

    Weekend Changes…Before we discuss our weekend weather, we should finally see the “doom and gloom” depart later this afternoon as enough of a southwest breeze and drier air helps scour out the low clouds, drizzle, and fog.  Improvements will come slowly, but surely as we progress into the afternoon hours.

    A delightful Saturday is dialed up, including what’s very likely to be our last 80° reading until next spring.  Northern portions of the state will get in on some shower activity Saturday, but we’ll remain dry and windy here on the home front.  As the cold front draws closer to the region, scattered showers and embedded thunder will blow into town Sunday morning.  This won’t be a significant rain event and the much bigger deal will be the falling afternoon temperatures and gusty northwest breeze.  You’ll need a jacket before the sun sets Sunday.

    The cooler ending to the weekend is a harbinger of things to come as we open the new work week.  In fact, temperatures will fall low enough to warrant a patchy frost risk for outlying areas away from the metro Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Sun-filled skies and cool, crisp afternoons are on tap next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Colder Pattern Ahead To Close October; Open November?

    October, month-to-date, has been nothing short of a blow torch.  Officially, IND is running +9° through the 11th.

    In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits.  Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.

    The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts.  Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage.  The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.

    A more significant pattern change appears dialed up prior to Halloween and this is one that seems suited to lead to more prolonged and significant cold to wrap up the month and head on into November.  Notice the evolution of things from October 21st to the 25th, courtesy of the GEFS off the fantastic tropicaltidbits.com.  Other model data is in general agreement, leading to a rather high confidence level for this time period.

    It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later!  Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening.  Make it a great day!


  • Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

    Highlights:

    • Early morning rain ends
    • Cooler air arrives
    • Warm Saturday
    • Much cooler close to the weekend

    Buckle Up…Early morning showers and embedded thunder should press northeast of the region before the rush gets underway.  All the same, expect damp roads on the way in to work and school Wednesday morning.  Additionally, we’ll notice a much cooler feel to the day, including nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures.  After a seasonable high Thursday, dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be with us to wrap up the work week.

    Our next storm system will take aim on the region this weekend.  Dry conditions will prevail Saturday, along with a gusty southwest wind that will help aid in boosting temperatures to around 80° (where’s that college football weather)?!  That southwest (warm) wind will be in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver scattered showers Sunday.  Not everyone will get wet, but everyone will notice the much cooler close to the weekend.  Temperatures will fall Sunday evening with a gusty north breeze.

    Early next week will open dry and cool.  – Just classic fall weather that most of us have come to know and love this time of year around these parts!

    Looking ahead, there continue to be signs that point towards potentially a more significant shift in the weather pattern that would result in a rather dramatic cold transition to wrap up the month.  More on this later.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 1.00″


  • Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

    For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

    A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

    Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

    It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

    An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

    The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

    In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

    Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

    A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

    Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…


  • Bonus Summertime…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
    • Warm pattern continues
    • Changes loom later next week

    Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

    As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

    Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″