• Category Archives Tropics
  • The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

    High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

    High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

    As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

    Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

    Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

    As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

    What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.

  • Considerable Cloudiness To Open The Work Week…


    • Mostly cloudy start to the work week
    • Another cold front moves in
    • Turning cooler late in the weekend

    Comfortable Late-Summer Week Ahead…Talk about a bust of a Sunday forecast on our part.  Dry air and lack of forcing resulted in steady rains remaining across southern parts of the state.  With the exception of a couple of brief showers, central and northern portions of the state remained dry most of the day.

    While we’ll remain with mostly cloudy skies today, most of the region will once again remain free of any rain.  The exception will be across southeastern Indiana where steady rains have been falling this morning.  That will continue to move east into Ohio as we push forward.  Otherwise, drier air will arrive tonight and set the stage for increasing sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday.  With low humidity and below normal temperatures, both days will be great to spend time outdoors, or perhaps a trip to the Indiana State Fair is in order?

    Moisture will begin to return by Thursday and with an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the weekend.  As of now, most widespread storm coverage is expected late Saturday into Sunday morning.  We’ll turn significantly cooler than normal (yet again) early next week.

    Tropics:  As expected in August into September, the tropics are turning increasingly active.  This morning, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to grab headlines as he is becoming more organized and positioned to impact the Yucatan today through Wednesday.  From there, Franklin is anticipated to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.  With very warm waters and a low shear environment, Franklin should strengthen yet again before making a second landfall late in the work week along the east-central Mexican coast.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

  • Heavy Rain Gives Way To A Gorgeous Weekend…


    • Heavy rain and storms through the daytime
    • Much cooler and drier air on the way
    • Pleasant week ahead

    Tropical Downpours Today…The remnant tropical moisture of Cindy is lifting northeast this morning while a cold front is dropping south.  The combination of these two weather features will result in an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms across central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected.  Thankfully, this won’t be a long duration event and a much drier air mass will invade from northwest to southeast by evening.  We’ll easily notice this drier trend as dew points go from about as high (lower-middle 70s) as we ever see them this morning to a very crisp feel (dew points in the 50s) tonight.

    The cooler and drier theme will continue through the weekend into the majority of the upcoming week ahead.  As noted in previous discussions, a fast-moving northwest flow will be responsible for sending a couple of minor upper level disturbances southeast into the region.  For the most part, we believe scattered showers will remain north of central Indiana until Monday afternoon and evening.  While this won’t be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination, a couple of showers are possible.

    Our air flow will eventually shift around to the southwest by the middle of the week and this will begin to send a warmer and increasingly moist air mass north by Thursday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ (locally heavier amounts)

  • VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Overnight Into Friday…

    The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.  A much cooler and drier air mass will arrive Friday evening and set the stage for an incredible, almost early fall-like, stretch of weather through the weekend into the first half of next week.

  • Friday Squeeze Play; Much Cooler Air Coming…


    • Breezy, warm Thursday
    • Heavy rain Friday
    • Drier and much cooler air on deck

    Heavy Rains Likely Friday…A warm front is draped to our north this morning and this is helping spark a few showers across northern portions of the state.  Here on the “home front,” with the exception of an isolated shower or storm, most should remain rain-free through the day, locally.  Things begin to change late tonight into Friday as the region feels the effects of a “squeeze play” between Cindy’s remnant tropical moisture tracking through the TN Valley and an approaching cold front to our north.  The combination of the two will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms across central IN.  With a tropical nature to the airmass Friday, some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall.  Most widespread rain and storm coverage should occur Friday morning into the afternoon before a drying trend develops from northwest to southeast Friday evening.

    Our cold front will push southeast and clear the state Friday night which will allow a much drier and cooler air mass to settle in for the weekend, continuing into next week.  You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about our weather through the period as a stretch of beautiful summer conditions take on an almost early fall-like feel through Tuesday.  While we’ll have to keep an eye on a sneaky disturbance riding into the region on the fast northwest flow (could spark a quick passing shower), most of the period should remain rain-free.  Eventually our air flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the middle of next week and this will help transport an increasingly moist feel back into the region.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  1.00″ – 2.00″ 

  • Active Weather Pattern Remains; Much Cooler To Close June…


    • PM storms
    • Dry midweek
    • Wet close to the work week
    • Much cooler air looms

    Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.

    Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.

    We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend.  A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.

    The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air.  Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

  • Refreshing Open To The Week; Scattered Storm Chances Remain…


    • Feelin’ nice
    • Scattered storms remain
    • More widespread storms late week

    Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so.  Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday.  With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.

    Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb.  While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point.  We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain).  Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week.  Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

  • Upcoming Week Headliners…

    I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

    A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

    II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

    Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

    III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

    Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

    IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

    Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

  • Hot And Humid; Storms Chances Return…


    • Dry conditions continue
    • Hot and turning humid
    • Storm chances return

    Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon.  Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above).  With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free.  Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state.  This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.  It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.

    We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend.  Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

    Tropics:  Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month.  Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet.  That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″