• Category Archives Tornadoes
  • Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

    Highlights:

    • Stormy Wednesday
    • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
    • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
    • Busy times return next week

    Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

    We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

    After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

    Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″


  • Timing Thursday Storms…

    Happy Wednesday!  Today’s sunshine sure was nice and I hope you had an opportunity to get outside and enjoy it.  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather won’t last as a storm system begins to impact central Indiana as early as the overnight period.  Clouds will continue to thicken tonight and showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) will arrive during the predawn hours.

    We note short-term, high resolution, forecast radar data brings the initial wave of thunderstorms through the city during the 2a-3a time frame early Thursday morning.

    Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.

    As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover.  This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.

    In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates.  This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.

    Forecast radar paints a stormy picture Thursday evening and, as mentioned above, a few of these storms could become severe.

    As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential.  “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.

    Ensure you remain weather-aware Thursday and have a means of getting the latest warnings.


  • Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…

    Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.

    This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday.  An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.

    The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.

    We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates.  Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region.  It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night.  Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front.  Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes.  Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.

    Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight.  The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.

    We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours.  We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast).  Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

    Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.

    A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?).  The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.

    That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday.  This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day.  60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!

    More updates in the AM!  Have a great night, friends!


  • Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Record warmth
    • Severe t-storm potential this evening
    • Scattered snow showers Saturday
    • Active pattern next week

    Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

    Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

    A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

    Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…

    An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today.  This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.

    Severe Weather Outlook:

    This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday.  This includes all of central Indiana.

    Summary:

    A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning).  Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.

    Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday.  Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours).  Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play.  The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.

    Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.

    Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.

    Threats and Timing:

    Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar.  The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening.  All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.

    As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.


  • Wednesday Evening Thoughts: For The Love Of Weather, We Have To Get Better…

    Indiana is blessed with a truly incredible weather community.  Please understand that I’m not just throwing around the word “community” lightly here.  The relationships that have stemmed from one single common trait, the love of weather, have simply blown me away.  I can’t tell you how many conversations started years ago, based solely on a snowstorm, tornado outbreak, arctic blast, flood, heat wave, etc. that have now blossomed into a full blown friendship.  Please know that the interactions, whether it be face-to-face, or via social media mean more than you know.  They’re truly treasured.

    The post this evening is filled with emotion.  On one hand, I find it downright incredible that we’re not hearing of a loss of life or widespread severe injuries this evening.  Cutting right to the heart of the matter, you don’t need me to tell you this was a bonafide tornado outbreak across Indiana this evening.  When the surveys are in, I’m sure they’ll only reaffirm the fact of multiple, significant tornadoes that touched down across the great Hoosier state.  8.24.16  will be remembered for a long, long time.  We have improved technology to thank for the lack of injuries and loss of life, but, more importantly, an incredibly talented weather community communicating information at warp speed with one single goal in mind- saving lives.

    I say that to get to this point: we have to get better.  On a day where multiple, violent tornadoes touched down across our state, there’s no reason we should’ve only been in a “Marginal” risk of severe weather.  I say that not to be critical, but to simply face a fact and urge the entire meteorological community to continue pushing for more- each and every day.  Looking in the mirror, myself, I should’ve taken a deeper dive into the set-up and dynamics in play early this morning.  I begin sifting through data around 5a each and every morning and post various information on our social media accounts and here at IndyWx.com.  Today, that wasn’t enough.  End of the story.

    In the past couple of months, significant tornadoes have touched down across central IN when, in all actuality, the environment at play was less than even close to being “textbook” to spawning such events.  The issue at hand is multi-faceted and requires a great deal of work continuing to improve modeling, but also communication.  Tireless work is required.  Data has to improve, but so does communication.

    Understand that I’m not placing blame on any one, or any organization, but simply urging each and every one of us to continue pushing for more.  It’s not okay to have multiple, violent tornadoes touch down in our forecast area with a “Marginal” risk of severe weather the morning of the event.  IndyWx.com had mention of “strong to severe” storm potential in this morning’s discussion.  That’s not acceptable given the events that played out today.  WE have to get better and improve the ultra-fine line of preparing the public of the potential without crossing the line of panic.  Please know, at the end of the day, my promise to each and every single viewer of IndyWx.com is that’s exactly what we will strive to do.

    At the end of the day, only God knows what the future holds.  It’s incredibly peaceful knowing that.  With that said, it can’t stop us from trying to maximize our time on this earth continuing to strive for better warning of looming storms and reaching for even more lead time when it comes to saving lives.

    ** IndyWx.com specializes in medium and long-term forecast information and discussions, and should never be used as a sole provider of warning information.  Please refer to the National Weather Service for up to the second warning information.


  • Another Wet Day…

    Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 7.37.17 AMHighlights:

    • Periods of rain
    • Increasing sunshine as we push into late week
    • Weekend cold front

    Keep The Rain Gear Handy…Whew, after an incredibly busy evening, things will be much quieter today.  Despite not having a severe threat, we will have to deal with wet times as periods of rain continue.  Rain coverage will diminish Wednesday, but we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast.

    Drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday, including a partly cloudy sky.  The next weather item on the horizon is a weekend cold front.  This frontal boundary will help increase storm chances Saturday into early Sunday (a few storms Saturday evening could be on the strong side).  MUCH cooler, early fall-like, air awaits next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

    Here are a few photos I shot Monday evening (8.15.16), between 6:47p-6:55p, just after the tornado touched down in Whitestown.

    Tornado81516

    Tornado281516

    Tornado381516

    Tornado481516

    Tornado581516


  • Latest Thinking On What Will Be A Busy Wednesday…

    The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) maintains a significant severe weather risk across Indiana Wednesday.  A Slight risk encompasses the southern portions of the state, while an Enhanced risk takes up residence across central Indiana.  Finally, a Moderate risk is located across the northern third of the state.  Given the latest data, we wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of the Enhanced/ Moderate risk areas are upgraded to a rare High risk during the early Wednesday morning SPC update.  Regardless, we want to be very clear that Wednesday is a potentially dangerous weather day across Indiana.

    2We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.

    That said, there are unknowns.  How does morning convection impact our ability to heat/ destabilize things during the afternoon?  Are models underestimating the cold pool that will likely develop with the storms during the afternoon/ evening?  If so, a further southeast track and more robust situation could unfold (when compared to what forecast radar products suggest as of this post Tuesday evening).

    While all modes of severe weather are certainly possible, for our immediate region, we’re particularly concerned for the threat of widespread damaging winds and flash flooding.  It wouldn’t surprise us if localized 3″+ amounts fall across portions of central and northern IN Wednesday.  Precipitable water values (PWATs) surging to 2″+ give increased confidence on localized flash flooding, especially considering the recent wet times.

    6

    FlashFloodThreatThe first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.

    1We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours.  We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.

    3

    4Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours.  Timing will have to be fine tuned as Wednesday morning arrives.

    To close, if you take anything from this post, please understand the importance of knowing your family’s severe weather safety plan.  Have a means of getting the latest watch and warning information from the National Weather Service and take any and all bulletins seriously.

    Much more later!