• Category Archives Tornadoes
  • Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Clouds more bark than bite today
    • Stormy setup Sunday
    • Trending colder next week

    All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

    Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

    All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Growing Severe Threat Sunday…

    We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather.  From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.

    A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday.  Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s.  While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat.  We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual.  Late November 2013 comes to mind.

    It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates.  We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.

    A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.

     


  • Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

    Highlights:

    • Stormy Wednesday
    • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
    • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
    • Busy times return next week

    Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

    We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

    After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

    Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″


  • Timing Thursday Storms…

    Happy Wednesday!  Today’s sunshine sure was nice and I hope you had an opportunity to get outside and enjoy it.  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather won’t last as a storm system begins to impact central Indiana as early as the overnight period.  Clouds will continue to thicken tonight and showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) will arrive during the predawn hours.

    We note short-term, high resolution, forecast radar data brings the initial wave of thunderstorms through the city during the 2a-3a time frame early Thursday morning.

    Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.

    As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover.  This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.

    In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates.  This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.

    Forecast radar paints a stormy picture Thursday evening and, as mentioned above, a few of these storms could become severe.

    As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential.  “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.

    Ensure you remain weather-aware Thursday and have a means of getting the latest warnings.


  • Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…

    Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.

    This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday.  An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.

    The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.

    We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates.  Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region.  It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night.  Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front.  Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes.  Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.

    Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight.  The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.

    We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours.  We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast).  Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

    Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.

    A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?).  The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.

    That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday.  This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day.  60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!

    More updates in the AM!  Have a great night, friends!


  • Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Record warmth
    • Severe t-storm potential this evening
    • Scattered snow showers Saturday
    • Active pattern next week

    Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

    Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

    A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

    Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…

    An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today.  This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.

    Severe Weather Outlook:

    This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday.  This includes all of central Indiana.

    Summary:

    A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning).  Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.

    Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday.  Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours).  Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play.  The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.

    Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.

    Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.

    Threats and Timing:

    Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar.  The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening.  All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.

    As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.


  • Wednesday Evening Thoughts: For The Love Of Weather, We Have To Get Better…

    Indiana is blessed with a truly incredible weather community.  Please understand that I’m not just throwing around the word “community” lightly here.  The relationships that have stemmed from one single common trait, the love of weather, have simply blown me away.  I can’t tell you how many conversations started years ago, based solely on a snowstorm, tornado outbreak, arctic blast, flood, heat wave, etc. that have now blossomed into a full blown friendship.  Please know that the interactions, whether it be face-to-face, or via social media mean more than you know.  They’re truly treasured.

    The post this evening is filled with emotion.  On one hand, I find it downright incredible that we’re not hearing of a loss of life or widespread severe injuries this evening.  Cutting right to the heart of the matter, you don’t need me to tell you this was a bonafide tornado outbreak across Indiana this evening.  When the surveys are in, I’m sure they’ll only reaffirm the fact of multiple, significant tornadoes that touched down across the great Hoosier state.  8.24.16  will be remembered for a long, long time.  We have improved technology to thank for the lack of injuries and loss of life, but, more importantly, an incredibly talented weather community communicating information at warp speed with one single goal in mind- saving lives.

    I say that to get to this point: we have to get better.  On a day where multiple, violent tornadoes touched down across our state, there’s no reason we should’ve only been in a “Marginal” risk of severe weather.  I say that not to be critical, but to simply face a fact and urge the entire meteorological community to continue pushing for more- each and every day.  Looking in the mirror, myself, I should’ve taken a deeper dive into the set-up and dynamics in play early this morning.  I begin sifting through data around 5a each and every morning and post various information on our social media accounts and here at IndyWx.com.  Today, that wasn’t enough.  End of the story.

    In the past couple of months, significant tornadoes have touched down across central IN when, in all actuality, the environment at play was less than even close to being “textbook” to spawning such events.  The issue at hand is multi-faceted and requires a great deal of work continuing to improve modeling, but also communication.  Tireless work is required.  Data has to improve, but so does communication.

    Understand that I’m not placing blame on any one, or any organization, but simply urging each and every one of us to continue pushing for more.  It’s not okay to have multiple, violent tornadoes touch down in our forecast area with a “Marginal” risk of severe weather the morning of the event.  IndyWx.com had mention of “strong to severe” storm potential in this morning’s discussion.  That’s not acceptable given the events that played out today.  WE have to get better and improve the ultra-fine line of preparing the public of the potential without crossing the line of panic.  Please know, at the end of the day, my promise to each and every single viewer of IndyWx.com is that’s exactly what we will strive to do.

    At the end of the day, only God knows what the future holds.  It’s incredibly peaceful knowing that.  With that said, it can’t stop us from trying to maximize our time on this earth continuing to strive for better warning of looming storms and reaching for even more lead time when it comes to saving lives.

    ** IndyWx.com specializes in medium and long-term forecast information and discussions, and should never be used as a sole provider of warning information.  Please refer to the National Weather Service for up to the second warning information.