• Category Archives T-storms
  • Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Clouds more bark than bite today
    • Stormy setup Sunday
    • Trending colder next week

    All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

    Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

    All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Growing Severe Threat Sunday…

    We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather.  From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.

    A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday.  Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s.  While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat.  We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual.  Late November 2013 comes to mind.

    It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates.  We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.

    A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.

     


  • A Cold Halloween On Tap…

    Highlights:

    • Cold and blustery Halloween
    • Unsettled, milder weather builds in
    • Stronger cold front arrives early next week

    Spooky Winds…Northerly breezes are strong and gusty and leading to wind chills in the lower-middle 20s across central Indiana this morning.  Heavier winter coats will be a smart choice out the door!  Otherwise, we’re a state divided from a cloud perspective: the southern half of Indiana will get in on the sunny act much sooner than the northern half of the state.  As we look towards the all-important trick-or-treat weather tonight, anticipate dry conditions, lighter winds, and unseasonably chilly conditions continuing.

    Our next storm system will approach Wednesday with showers.  Rain may be mixed with wet snow or sleet Wednesday morning, but with temperatures above freezing, don’t look for any accumulation.  Periods of showers and light rain will continue Thursday into Friday morning.  Heavy rain won’t occur, but it’ll be damp at times.  Saturday is a bit tricky- some solutions keep rain around, but we’re choosing the more “optimistic” approach for the purpose of this forecast update.  Stay tuned.

    Saturday will feature considerable cloudiness, slightly cooler air, and breezy conditions before a warmer close to the weekend.  A southwesterly flow will help boost highs into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will slide through here with showers and a couple claps of thunder Monday.  Much colder air returns Monday night into Tuesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Sunny Days; Pattern Change On The Horizon…

    Highlights:

    • Extended stretch of dry, sunny weather
    • Late weekend cold front
    • Much colder close to the month looms

    Ideal, Crisp Fall Day…Sheltered, lower lying communities are waking up to temperatures in the middle and upper 30s this morning with patchy frost.  The rest of us are in the lower to middle 40s with just enough breeze preventing a deeper overnight fall.  All of us we’ll moderate into the mid and upper 60s this afternoon under a clear sky.  Those mostly sunny conditions will continue into mid and late week with moderating temperatures.

    Our next storm system will arrive during the second half of the weekend in the form of a cold front.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the front.  Cooler air will invade behind the frontal passage, but the true chilly stuff will press in early next week.  Speaking of chilly weather, medium and longer range data continues to paint a cold close to the month and open to November.  Warm costumes will be needed for trick-or-treating this year.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Weekend Warmup Ahead Of The Coolest Air Of The Season…

    Highlights:

    • Weekend Warmup
    • Scattered showers Sunday morning
    • Gusty winds and falling temperatures

    Weekend Changes…Before we discuss our weekend weather, we should finally see the “doom and gloom” depart later this afternoon as enough of a southwest breeze and drier air helps scour out the low clouds, drizzle, and fog.  Improvements will come slowly, but surely as we progress into the afternoon hours.

    A delightful Saturday is dialed up, including what’s very likely to be our last 80° reading until next spring.  Northern portions of the state will get in on some shower activity Saturday, but we’ll remain dry and windy here on the home front.  As the cold front draws closer to the region, scattered showers and embedded thunder will blow into town Sunday morning.  This won’t be a significant rain event and the much bigger deal will be the falling afternoon temperatures and gusty northwest breeze.  You’ll need a jacket before the sun sets Sunday.

    The cooler ending to the weekend is a harbinger of things to come as we open the new work week.  In fact, temperatures will fall low enough to warrant a patchy frost risk for outlying areas away from the metro Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Sun-filled skies and cool, crisp afternoons are on tap next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

    Highlights:

    • Early morning rain ends
    • Cooler air arrives
    • Warm Saturday
    • Much cooler close to the weekend

    Buckle Up…Early morning showers and embedded thunder should press northeast of the region before the rush gets underway.  All the same, expect damp roads on the way in to work and school Wednesday morning.  Additionally, we’ll notice a much cooler feel to the day, including nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures.  After a seasonable high Thursday, dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be with us to wrap up the work week.

    Our next storm system will take aim on the region this weekend.  Dry conditions will prevail Saturday, along with a gusty southwest wind that will help aid in boosting temperatures to around 80° (where’s that college football weather)?!  That southwest (warm) wind will be in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver scattered showers Sunday.  Not everyone will get wet, but everyone will notice the much cooler close to the weekend.  Temperatures will fall Sunday evening with a gusty north breeze.

    Early next week will open dry and cool.  – Just classic fall weather that most of us have come to know and love this time of year around these parts!

    Looking ahead, there continue to be signs that point towards potentially a more significant shift in the weather pattern that would result in a rather dramatic cold transition to wrap up the month.  More on this later.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 1.00″


  • Active Week Of Weather…

    Highlights:

    • Warm open to the work week
    • T-storms return
    • Weekend cold front

    Active Times This Week…With the exception of patchy morning fog, the work week will get off to an uneventful start.  Unseasonably warm conditions will continue with sunshine.

    A storm system will move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will help spread an initial round of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana Tuesday morning, followed by more widespread showers and embedded thunder Tuesday evening into the predawn hours Wednesday.  Drier and cooler air will return Wednesday afternoon and Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest day of the week (very close to our average high of 66° for the date).

    The cool air won’t last long as a southerly air flow returns in advance of our next storm system.  Saturday will be dry and breezy before clouds increase Sunday and scattered thunderstorms arrive Sunday afternoon and evening.  A more significant shot of cool air will invade early next week behind the frontal passage.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

    For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

    A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

    Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

    It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

    An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

    The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

    In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

    Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

    A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

    Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…


  • Warm Saturday; Storms Rumble In Late…

    October has gotten off to a warm start (+ 8.4° at IND, to be exact) and that will continue this weekend as high temperatures top out between 80° – 85° Saturday.

    October has gotten off to a warm start across the Mid West.

    In addition to Saturday’s warmth, southwest winds will gust over 35 MPH at times- especially during the afternoon hours.

    Most of Saturday will remain rain free, but we’ll need to keep an eye towards the western horizon Saturday afternoon as a frontal boundary helps kick up a line of thunderstorms.

    The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a large portion of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday.  While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, a couple of embedded gusty storms are a good bet Saturday afternoon and evening.

    The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds.  While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.

    We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!