• Category Archives T-storms
  • Warm Week With Increasing Rain Chances…

    Highlights:

    • Dry open to the work week
    • Warming trend develops
    • Turning more unsettled

    Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week.  This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.

    This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.  Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage.  We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.

    Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″


  • Summer Continues Into Next Week Before Cool Changes Take Over…

    Highlights:

    • Summer-like heat continues
    • Dry times prevail
    • Much cooler air looms

    A Little Something For Everyone…If you’re a fan of summer, this forecast has it!  If you’re a fan of fall, this forecast has that, too!  Summer-like heat will dominate through the short-term with only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm today.  Most will remain dry and that dry theme will carry us into the new work week ahead.  Unseasonably hot (upper 80s to near 90 is downright hot) conditions will also continue as we open up the new week.

    That said, a long advertised cold front will push towards the region by midweek and this will provide enough lift to create widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning.  Significant and widespread rains aren’t, unfortunately, anticipated.  The bigger deal will be the much cooler air that will spill into the region Thursday and set the stage for an unseasonably cool open to October.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Scattered Storms; Summer-like Feel…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered t-storms
    • Dry weather returns
    • True summer-like feel

    Unseasonably Warm Weather Continues…Similar to the past 24 hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the central Indiana landscape through midweek.  As has been the case, there will continue to be “haves and have nots” over the next couple of days.  Some neighborhoods will get lucky with localized slow moving downpours while others miss out entirely.  All in all, it’s a very summer-like regime- both from a temperature/ humidity standpoint, as well as a precipitation perspective.

    As we flip the page and head into the upcoming weekend, dry times will return.  A big ole upper level ridge will balloon over the mid west and eastern portion of the country and this will serve to lead to a continuation of summer-like warmth- certainly well above average.  It sure won’t feel like fall as we officially welcome in the new season Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…

    So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.

    That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold.  The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow.  Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).

    Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week.  Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.

    Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10.  This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches.  We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…


  • Still Some Summer Left In The Tank…

    Highlights:

    • Warmth builds
    • Storms chances (finally) return
    • Rinse and repeat

    Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…We may be inching ever so much closer to the official start of autumn (next Friday), but don’t tell Mother Nature that.  After an unusually cool close to August and open to September, we’re set to make up for lost time over the next couple of weeks.  Heat will build and expand across the Mid West this weekend and that will set the tone for the upcoming forecast period.

    Weather conditions should remain dry to kick off the weekend (great day for the Whitestown Brewfest, by the way), but moisture will return for the second half of the weekend.  Combine the increasing moisture with enough lift and widely scattered thunderstorms will fire Sunday.  Overall coverage won’t be particularly impressive, but will be a harbinger of things to come as the new week unfolds.  A couple of surface fronts will push up against the strong ridge in place as we progress through the work week.  While these will “wash out” over the Ohio Valley, they’ll be sufficient enough to provide scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms next week.  Our parched soils will take anything they can get!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Mid-October Weather…

    Highlights:

    • Widely scattered storms this afternoon
    • Well below average temperatures
    • Overall dry pattern continues

    Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air).  Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow.  Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening.  Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.

    There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period.  Dry weather will dominate.  Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period.  We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.

    Tropics:  Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so.  This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.”  Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.

    Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida.  Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″


  • VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…

    The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening.  Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).

    MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week.  Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.


  • Strong Cold Front Delivers Storms And Another Surge Of October-Like Air…

    Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.

    However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches.  A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms.  The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.

    After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in.  As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.

    6p forecast radar
    8p forecast radar
    9p forecast radar
    10p forecast radar

    Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass.  Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October.  We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.

     


  • Pleasant Labor Day Weekend; Another Cool Shot Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Dry Labor Day weekend
    • Cold front arrives early Tuesday
    • Another cool shot next week

    Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday.  Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches.  We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east.  Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday.  We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning.  Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.

    A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday.  Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer.  That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state).  Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region.  With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.

    Tropics:  Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week.  It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely.  In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Grab The Jacket!

    Highlights:

    • Harvey’s remnants
    • Windy and October-like
    • Improving weather for Labor Day weekend
    • Another blast of cool air next week

    Is It The First Of September Or October?!  Harvey’s remnants will track northeast along the Ohio River (tonight) and into the central Appalachians (Saturday).  The combination of a tight pressure gradient between the circulation around what’s left of Harvey and an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in strong and gusty easterly winds to wrap up the work week.  Factor in temperatures that will run close to 20° below normal and jackets will be required today!  We don’t have any changes in regards to our rainfall forecast: heaviest and steadiest rain will remain downstate.  Lighter showers will begin to overspread central parts of the state, including Indianapolis, later this evening.

    Early showers will pull off to the east Saturday and we should end the day with increasing sunshine.  Those improvements will continue Sunday into Labor Day with dry conditions.

    A cold front will approach early next week and result in an increasingly windy regime Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  The front will sweep through the state Tuesday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms followed by another shot of unseasonably cool air by the middle of next week.  Lingering upper level energy will result in spotty showers Wednesday with the cooler conditions.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″