• Category Archives T-storms
  • Weekend Of Changes: Storms To Snow…

    Highlights:

    • Big changes this weekend
    • Relatively calm Thanksgiving week
    • Chilly Thanksgiving

    Storms To Snow This Weekend…An approaching storm system will lead to an active open to the weekend.  Beforehand, thankfully, we’ll close the work week out on a rather quiet note.  The daytime hours will remain dry before moisture begins to return this evening.  An initial round of showers will move across central Indiana (thinking between 8p-9p) before steadier and heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms blow into town Saturday.  A strengthening surface low will move from the central Plains tonight and into the southern Great Lakes Saturday.  This will lead to a briefly milder surge of air Saturday morning into the early afternoon before a cold front sweeps through the state and leads to a sharply colder close to the day.  Right ahead of the cold front, a skinny, but potentially intense, line of thunderstorms will track across central Indiana late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts are possible as this thin line of storms advances across central and southern Indiana.  Winds will then shift around to the northwest and help drive much colder air into the region through the afternoon and evening.  In fact, we’ll turn cold enough to allow precipitation to end as a touch of wet snow Saturday evening.

    We’ll wrap up the weekend and kick off Thanksgiving week on a much calmer note.  Chilly high pressure will build in Sunday, allowing sunshine to return, but temperatures will run around 15° below normal.  A dry cold front will pass through the state Tuesday.  With the exception of a wind shift and a few more clouds we really shouldn’t expect much more in the way of “excitement.”  This will allow unseasonably cool air to return for Thanksgiving, itself.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Multiple Cold Fronts Keep Us Busy…

    Highlights:

    • Wet Wednesday
    • 2nd cold front Friday night
    • 3rd cold front arrives Tuesday night

    Busy Weather Pattern…Rain is pressing into central Indiana this morning ahead of the first of three cold fronts we’re tracking between now and early Thanksgiving week.  Rain will be most widespread this morning into the early afternoon hours before diminishing mid to late afternoon.  Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town tonight and we’ll be in between storm systems Thursday.

    Our second storm system will lead to increasing clouds Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms arriving overnight into Saturday morning.  Due to the slower timing of this storm, the late week severe threat has diminished significantly.  Nonetheless, it’ll be a windy afternoon and we’ll notice rising nighttime temperatures Friday as the cold front approaches.  Morning rain will continue Saturday before a sharp transition to much colder conditions with falling daytime temperatures.  We’ll kick off Thanksgiving week on a dry and cold note.

    Finally, yet another cold front will approach Tuesday night.  Once this front sweeps through the state, the coldest air of the season will settle into the area just in time for Thanksgiving.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 1.75″


  • Busy Week Of Weather…

    November is off to a chilly start and longer range data suggests the chill grows more significant as we venture through the second half of the month.  Officially, IND is running more than 1° below normal through the 12th.

    Despite an active weather week ahead, the open to the new work week will be rather uneventful.  Weak high pressure will keep us dry today and Tuesday.  Fog and low clouds should give way to an increasingly bright sky by this afternoon (still more clouds than sun today) and partly cloudy skies Tuesday.

    Our next weather feature approaches Wednesday in the form of a cold front.  This will return showers to the area midweek.  Rainfall amounts Wednesday should generally fall in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range.

    A stronger storm will impact the region as we close out the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will track into the Great Lakes and drag a trailing cold front through our region Friday evening.  A briefly milder southwesterly air flow will push temperatures close to 60° Friday afternoon/ evening before the sharply colder push of air blows into town for the weekend.  The transition may include strong to severe thunderstorms Friday PM, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a large portion of the region under a severe risk Friday.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to future updates.  Even outside of potentially damaging thunderstorm gusts, non-t-storm winds will gust over 40 MPH Friday.

    Once the cold front sweeps through the region, a sharply colder air mass will plunge into the Ohio Valley for the weekend.  Overnight data has trended even colder and would suggest falling Saturday temperatures (most of the day will be spent in the 30s) and highs only in the lower to middle 30s Sunday.

    Speaking of cold, Thanksgiving week is looking unseasonably cold, and there’s also the potential of early-season snow (far too early for specifics).


  • Tracking A Couple Of Cold Fronts This Week…

    Highlights:

    • Calm open to the work week
    • Two cold fronts impact the region
    • Much colder air blows in this weekend

    Calm Open; Busy Close…The work week will open with weak high pressure in control of our weather.  This will result in sunshine returning along with unseasonably chilly conditions (average highs are in the mid 50s this time of year).

    The first of two cold fronts will push through the state Wednesday.  Clouds will increase Tuesday evening and showers will blow into town Wednesday morning.  Breezy and chilly conditions will go along with the damp weather.

    A second (stronger) cold front will impact the area to close the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Friday evening and help pull a briefly warmer air mass into the state.  Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread ahead of the approaching cold front and a few of these could be strong to severe.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and update accordingly.  Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will reach 40 MPH+ before shifting around to the northwest once the trailing cold front sweeps through the region.  This will drive a sharply colder air mass southeast and the potential is there for lingering moisture to end as a touch of wet snow late Friday night.  The weekend will feature dry, windy, and unseasonably cold conditions.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall:  Trace
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Clouds more bark than bite today
    • Stormy setup Sunday
    • Trending colder next week

    All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

    Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

    All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Growing Severe Threat Sunday…

    We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather.  From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.

    A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday.  Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s.  While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon.  Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat.  We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual.  Late November 2013 comes to mind.

    It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates.  We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.

    A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.

     


  • A Cold Halloween On Tap…

    Highlights:

    • Cold and blustery Halloween
    • Unsettled, milder weather builds in
    • Stronger cold front arrives early next week

    Spooky Winds…Northerly breezes are strong and gusty and leading to wind chills in the lower-middle 20s across central Indiana this morning.  Heavier winter coats will be a smart choice out the door!  Otherwise, we’re a state divided from a cloud perspective: the southern half of Indiana will get in on the sunny act much sooner than the northern half of the state.  As we look towards the all-important trick-or-treat weather tonight, anticipate dry conditions, lighter winds, and unseasonably chilly conditions continuing.

    Our next storm system will approach Wednesday with showers.  Rain may be mixed with wet snow or sleet Wednesday morning, but with temperatures above freezing, don’t look for any accumulation.  Periods of showers and light rain will continue Thursday into Friday morning.  Heavy rain won’t occur, but it’ll be damp at times.  Saturday is a bit tricky- some solutions keep rain around, but we’re choosing the more “optimistic” approach for the purpose of this forecast update.  Stay tuned.

    Saturday will feature considerable cloudiness, slightly cooler air, and breezy conditions before a warmer close to the weekend.  A southwesterly flow will help boost highs into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will slide through here with showers and a couple claps of thunder Monday.  Much colder air returns Monday night into Tuesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Sunny Days; Pattern Change On The Horizon…

    Highlights:

    • Extended stretch of dry, sunny weather
    • Late weekend cold front
    • Much colder close to the month looms

    Ideal, Crisp Fall Day…Sheltered, lower lying communities are waking up to temperatures in the middle and upper 30s this morning with patchy frost.  The rest of us are in the lower to middle 40s with just enough breeze preventing a deeper overnight fall.  All of us we’ll moderate into the mid and upper 60s this afternoon under a clear sky.  Those mostly sunny conditions will continue into mid and late week with moderating temperatures.

    Our next storm system will arrive during the second half of the weekend in the form of a cold front.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the front.  Cooler air will invade behind the frontal passage, but the true chilly stuff will press in early next week.  Speaking of chilly weather, medium and longer range data continues to paint a cold close to the month and open to November.  Warm costumes will be needed for trick-or-treating this year.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″