• Category Archives Summer
  • Time Is Ticking On This Summer Heat…

    There are no changes to our ongoing forecast of “bonus” summer-like conditions into early next week.  Highs will continue to zoom into the upper 80s and overnight lows will remain well above average (mid-to-upper 60s).  (Keep in mind, averages now feature highs in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s).

    However, a cold front will approach the middle part of next week and while this won’t be an efficient rain producer, it will serve to deliver a return of fall-like air as we close September and open October.  From a precipitation stand point, rainfall amounts look “anemic” at best over the upcoming 7-10 days.

    At this distance, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the FROPA, but many will remain rain-free and even those that do pick up a shower or storm shouldn’t expect significant rains.  What will be a much bigger deal will be the return of an authentic fall feel by next Friday, continuing into early October.


  • Scattered Storms; Summer-like Feel…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered t-storms
    • Dry weather returns
    • True summer-like feel

    Unseasonably Warm Weather Continues…Similar to the past 24 hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the central Indiana landscape through midweek.  As has been the case, there will continue to be “haves and have nots” over the next couple of days.  Some neighborhoods will get lucky with localized slow moving downpours while others miss out entirely.  All in all, it’s a very summer-like regime- both from a temperature/ humidity standpoint, as well as a precipitation perspective.

    As we flip the page and head into the upcoming weekend, dry times will return.  A big ole upper level ridge will balloon over the mid west and eastern portion of the country and this will serve to lead to a continuation of summer-like warmth- certainly well above average.  It sure won’t feel like fall as we officially welcome in the new season Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…

    So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.

    That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold.  The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow.  Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).

    Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week.  Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.

    Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10.  This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches.  We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…


  • Still Some Summer Left In The Tank…

    Highlights:

    • Warmth builds
    • Storms chances (finally) return
    • Rinse and repeat

    Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…We may be inching ever so much closer to the official start of autumn (next Friday), but don’t tell Mother Nature that.  After an unusually cool close to August and open to September, we’re set to make up for lost time over the next couple of weeks.  Heat will build and expand across the Mid West this weekend and that will set the tone for the upcoming forecast period.

    Weather conditions should remain dry to kick off the weekend (great day for the Whitestown Brewfest, by the way), but moisture will return for the second half of the weekend.  Combine the increasing moisture with enough lift and widely scattered thunderstorms will fire Sunday.  Overall coverage won’t be particularly impressive, but will be a harbinger of things to come as the new week unfolds.  A couple of surface fronts will push up against the strong ridge in place as we progress through the work week.  While these will “wash out” over the Ohio Valley, they’ll be sufficient enough to provide scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms next week.  Our parched soils will take anything they can get!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

    The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

    Week 1
    Week 2
    Weeks 3-4

    Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

    • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
    • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

    Now…the CFSv2:

    Weeks 1-2
    Weeks 3-4

    Key take-aways:

    • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

    While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

    To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.


  • BIG Reversal Coming…

    Through August and the first half of September, the mean trough position has been located across our part of the country.  This has helped lead to an extended period of below normal temperatures and an early start to fall.

    Well below normal temperatures have dominated the first half of September.

    You knew summer wouldn’t go away without fighting back at least once more, didn’t you?!  Sure enough, over the next couple of weeks, ridging will expand across the east and this will provide late-season summer heat in the exact area where it’s been coolest month-to-date.

    This will deliver temperature anomalies 5° to 10° above average as we traverse the back half of the month, including highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

    Meanwhile, our friends out west (where it’s been warm, month-to-date) will begin to experience early winter-like conditions, including high elevation snowfall across the central and northern Rockies.

    Looking ahead, after our period of summer-like conditions comes to an end late month, a more transient (active) pattern should develop.  This will serve to do a couple of things:

    • Lead to a rather wet regime
    • Pops of cold air become increasingly likely behind FROPAs

    It’ll be interesting to see what the NEW Weeklies look like today, including the European and JMA.  We’ll post on our thoughts with both later.


  • Monday Evening Rambles: Looking Towards October….

    Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.

    Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…

    European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.


  • Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

    Highlights:

    • Rain and storm chances increase
    • Late week cold front
    • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

    Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

    Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

    A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

    Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″