• Category Archives Spring
  • Rain Chances Go Up Late…

    Highlights:

    • Shower and t-storm chances increase late
    • Another storm system arrives Monday afternoon
    • Late-week questions

    Active Period…Most of Saturday across central Indiana will feature dry conditions.  It’s not until we get to Saturday evening and into the overnight that shower and thunderstorm coverage will begin to really increase in earnest.  Periods of showers continue Sunday (especially the first of the day day).

    A dry start to Monday will give way to increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms arriving by the afternoon and evening hours.  This fast-moving area of low pressure will then depart as quickly as it arrives and leave us with dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

    We’re then left with late-week questions.  The GFS is significantly cooler than the European and we’ll craft this portion of the forecast with a blend- leaning more in the direction of the warmer European solution.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday into Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″


  • Wednesday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  Temperatures this morning are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago.  Many central IN neighborhoods are waking up to temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

    2.)  Speaking of cold, to-date, March is running slightly colder than average (by 1.1°).  Note the spring and summer-like warmth across the SW.  “Pieces” of that warmth will eject northeast in modified fashion late March into April.

    3.)  High pressure will supply a dry, but cold Wednesday.  Highs will run close to 10° below average (lower 40s), but at least we’ll enjoy the sun!

    4.)  Temperatures will begin to warm as we progress through the latter portions of the week.  We’ll be near seasonal norms Thursday (low 50s), and above normal Friday into the weekend (mid-upper 60s).  With the warmer air, rain and storm chances will also be on the increase.  As of now, we target best rain chances late Saturday into Sunday.  A couple thunderstorms are also possible.  Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ seem like a good bet with locally heavier amounts.

    5.)  This is just the beginning of an active stretch of weather to wrap up the month of March.  (3) additional storms will have to be monitored next week.  Accordingly, precipitation anomalies will run above normal.


  • Weekend Improvements…

    Highlights:

    • Chilly Saturday
    • Brighter Sunday
    • Unsettled week ahead

    Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

    Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

    A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

    Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.


  • Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

    1.)  All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time.  Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in.  Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.

    2.)  It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.

    3.)  Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s.  That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days.  Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.

    4.)  Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day.  A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening.  A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning.  “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total.  By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.

    5.)  We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well.  A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns.  High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).

    6.)  Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month.  Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings.  Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air.  From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.


  • Winter Finally Shows Up…

    Highlights:

    • Much colder than average
    • Snow prospects to open the week
    • Busy pattern continues

    Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

    Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

    Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

    Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…

    Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.

    This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday.  An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.

    The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.

    We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates.  Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region.  It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night.  Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front.  Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes.  Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.

    Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight.  The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.

    We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours.  We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast).  Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

    Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.

    A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?).  The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.

    That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday.  This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day.  60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!

    More updates in the AM!  Have a great night, friends!


  • Looking Ahead To Spring…

    Meteorological spring begins in a few days (runs March through May).  We’ve already touched on the expected busy severe weather season and want to dedicate this post towards looking deeper into the weather pattern and the resulting precipitation and temperature impacts.

    The latest longer-range data continues to be in very good agreement on the upper air pattern.  In short, the balance of the spring season looks to offer up a continued theme of warmer than average temperatures for our region.  (Not saying we won’t have to deal with a wintry “trick or two” over the first couple weeks of March).  When we look at spring, as a whole, we believe it’ll be one known more for the warmth and active, stormy times.

    CFSv2 March Temperature Anomalies
    CFSv2 April Temperature Anomalies
    CFSv2 May Temperature Anomalies
    JAMSTEC March through May Temperature Anomalies

    The latest JMA monthly idea is one that has to raise an eye brow as it would paint an early summer across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  Anomalous warmth (true summer-like air) would develop with a strong ridge over the Great Lakes and northeast.  This is something we’ll have to keep an eye on.  A big caveat here is how strong and quickly the coming El Nino develops.  It should be noted, El Nino years can feature some of the hottest air early, not late, in the summer season (relative to averages), and the JMA would, indeed, yield an early summer with such a look.

    JMA May Forecast 500mb Pattern

    It should also be noted modeling is suggesting a wet look, locally, especially during the early portions of spring.  The JAMSTEC and JMA are particularly bullish on a wet pattern.

    JAMSTEC March through May Precipitation Anomalies
    JMA March through May Precipitation Anomalies

    The CFSv2 hits the wet March hard before a drier regime mid and late spring.

    March Precipitation Anomalies
    April Precipitation Anomalies
    May Precipitation Anomalies

    In closing, we seem to have a bit of a bumpy ride in front of us as meteorological spring begins.  While Old Man Winter hasn’t been seen much as of late, don’t be shocked if he makes his presence felt a few more times through the first half of March- both from a cold and snow perspective.  That said, data really points towards more of an overall warm regime developing the second half of the month, and continuing through the majority of spring, for that matter.  We’re keeping a close eye on May for an early summer-like feel to take hold, locally.  Subsequent JMA updates will be monitored closely.  We also remain confident of an active severe weather season.  Note the tendency of model data (above) to pull the mean trough position to the northwest March into April.  The clash of late-season wintry conditions west, combined with unseasonably warm temperatures across the east (not to mention the warmer than average Gulf of Mexico) likely will equal busy times as we progress through the spring severe weather season.


  • Don’t Get Lulled To Sleep…

    Overall, as mild as this winter has been (particularly on the snow front), it’s easy to think we’re done with wintry precipitation- especially after this stretch of 60°+ weather.  That said, we still have to get through March, and as long-time Midwesterners know, the third month of the year can yield some wild swings, including late season wintry events.  Yes, including even the mild winters of the past…

    Modeling is beginning to show at least a shift towards unseasonably cold conditions as we progress through the first couple of weeks of March.  In the face of the prolonged stretch of April-like warmth of late, this will be a shock in and of itself.


    Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small.  Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.

    Before that, we have a couple of weeks in front of us to open March that won’t only provide out-of-season cold, but we must also pay close attention to the potential of northwest flow clipper systems.  There’s no reason to get detailed and specific from this distance, but the pattern suggests we need to be on the look-out for the potential of one or two snow makers as we move through the first couple weeks of the month.  March clippers can be a headache as the March warmth south of the track of the system can help add energy and turn a weak event into an impactful snow event to the north of the low’s track.  Hoosiers don’t have to be reminded how significant March clippers can be at times.  Is this the year we have to deal with one or two of these stronger clippers?  Wouldn’t it be ironic after such a mild winter thus far?  Don’t let Mother Nature “lull” you to sleep…


  • Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

    February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

    The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

    That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

    Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…


  • Awesome Weekend Weather Continues; Changes Ahead Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Spring-like weather rolls along
    • Shower chances return
    • Strong t-storm potential
    • Different tune next weekend

    Is This February?  Our stretch of unseasonably pleasant, spring-like, weather will continue for the second half of the weekend and as we progress into the early stages of the work week.  Find a way to get outside the next couple of days (that’s an order ;-)).

    A weak weather system will scoot through here Tuesday and serve to increase our cloud cover, along with a few scattered showers.  Dry conditions return Wednesday, but by then all eyes will be on an approaching stronger storm system that will provide increased shower coverage by Thursday and strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday.  Speaking of severe weather, we think this spring will offer up a busy severe weather season.  We’ll have additional updates on the severe potential as time gets closer, but just keep a mental note Friday could be a busy weather day.

    We’ll abruptly transition back to winter Friday night and the air will grow cold enough a week from today to allow scattered snow showers to fly in a gusty northwesterly breeze next Saturday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″