We enjoyed a brilliant Saturday across central Indiana. Plentiful sunshine developed, as expected, after a cloudy, drizzly start in areas. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 60s for most. We’ll continue to enjoy the sun Sunday and temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s with a developing southwest breeze.
All of that said, let’s be sure to enjoy the sunshine and quiet times while we can. Looking into the mid to long range suggests the “boring” weather days will be few and far between from here through the first week of May.
We’re tracking storm systems in an almost every-other-day type format beginning Monday. 10-day rainfall numbers are impressive (2″-4″ locally) and many areas of the Ohio Valley, Mid West, and TN Valley will be significantly above normal precipitation during the period to close April and open May.
Note the European ensemble highlighting the busy storm track over the upcoming 10 days. By the way, we’ll have to also keep a close eye on each system for thunderstorm (strong to severe) potential.
There’s also growing confidence on a late season blast of chilly air as we open May, including a frost/ freeze threat.
We’ll keep a close eye on that in the days ahead…
Make it a great evening. A fresh 7-day will be posted tomorrow.
Happy Easter! From all of us at IndyWx.com, we wish you a blessed day!
Easter Sunday is off to a beautiful start with lots of sunshine, temperatures in the 40s, and light winds. Unfortunately, things will begin to change in rather significant fashion as early as the evening hours. Beforehand, expect sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower 70s across many central IN neighborhoods. It’ll turn increasingly moist, as well, as surface dew points jump into the lower 60s.
Highs today will reach the lower 70s.
Dew points will climb into the lower 60s by evening.
An approaching area of low pressure and associated cold front will provide just enough spin/ lift, in combination with the warmth and increasingly moist air mass, to ignite storms this evening. Some of these storms will likely reach strong to severe levels. We’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds and large hail.
High resolution simulated radar data suggests storms ignite around 6p across central IN. We caution that this image should be used as guidance and not taken verbatim.
Have a way to get the latest weather information later this afternoon and evening. Watches or warnings may be required…
Ice Scrapers Needed This Morning…Many Indiana neighborhoods awoke to temperatures in the 20s this morning. Thankfully, that late March sun angle will help boost temperatures quickly today to around 50 for afternoon highs.
A warm front will lift through the region Tuesday and could spark a shower or two, but most will remain dry. We’ll turn briefly milder Tuesday and Wednesday before better coverage of showers and embedded thunder arrive on scene Thursday. This is in association with a cold front that will deliver a quick pop of colder air to close the week, including Good Friday. There’s the chance enough cold air could catch lingering moisture to allow for a few snow showers late Thursday night before we dry things out completely.
As we look ahead to Easter, another storm system will arrive quickly. As such, we’re forced to increase rain chances (and coverage) Easter Sunday.
Longer term, indications continue to point towards a rather rude open to April, including well below normal temperatures.
1.) Indianapolis is running much warmer (+9.1°) and slightly drier than normal (-0.15″) month-to-date.
2.) Snow is flying to our southwest, and accumulating for some in and around St. Louis this morning. This is in association with the upper energy providing southern parts of our state with rain this morning.
3.) Temperatures fell into the middle and upper 20s for many central IN neighborhoods this morning and we’ll repeat that again tonight/ Monday morning. Additional sub-freezing temperatures will be with us heading into Easter weekend (after a briefly warmer mid week).
4.) As you’d expect this time of year, there will be periods of warmer (ridge) and colder (trough) than normal conditions. The PSD shows that this week.
5.) Speaking of periods of transition, the warmer mid week will give way to a cold front Thursday. As such, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday.
6.) As mentioned above, we’ll turn colder Good Friday and Saturday, but the active pattern remains. Some modeling likes the idea of rain returning Easter. Other solutions keep us dry. We’ll continue to monitor. Regardless, bank on more changes in the days ahead. Data leans more on the cooler side to open April…
Keep The Jackets Nearby…We’ve enjoyed April and May-like temperatures over the past couple weeks, so you knew we had to make up for the warmth sooner or later. Thankfully, the pending weekend chill isn’t anything we can’t handle. That said, it will serve as a rather rude shock to the system for those craving sustained spring.
We’ll wrap up the work week on a mostly dry note (only a spotty shower chance), but we’ll increase overall coverage of shower activity Saturday. While it’ll be far from a wash out, when you combine the areal increase of shower coverage and much colder air, it may be a day to spend indoors watching basketball (any excuse will work, right? ;-)). As colder air gets involved, it’s possible rain ends as a wet snow flake, or two.
We’ll turn briefly milder early and middle parts of next week as a warm front passes with showers Tuesday. Steadier rains arrive Wednesday before colder air returns yet again heading into the Easter weekend.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
Rain chances continue to decrease for the Indy 500
More humid times next week
An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above). As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day. An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run. Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening. A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24 temperature change (image 1) and the departure from normal (image 2).
A storm system to our west is delivering more high mountain snow to CO and also responsible for tornadoes in TX. This system will weaken dramatically over the next 12-24 hours. Dry air will really “eat away” at the more significant precipitation and we’ll maintain mention of light rain in your Wednesday forecast (forecast radar at 12-noon is below) before it’s back to sunshine Thursday!
Friday and Saturday will be fantastic days- slowly moderating temperatures and lots of sunshine!
Attention turns to Sunday and as of now we still don’t have any changes to our forecast. There will be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but it continues to look like best rain and storm chances will remain off to our west most, if not all, of Sunday. Highs will be around 80°.
Better chances of scattered storms appear to arrive Monday. At this juncture it really doesn’t look like a bad Memorial Day weekend is shaping up in the least.
Keeping a close eye on Race Day/ Memorial Day wknd
A cold front still sits to our west and as the front passes through the region later this evening, an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible, with best chances across the southeast portion of the state. A much cooler air mass will then filter into the region for mid and late week. A weakening disturbance may hold together just long enough to deliver some light rain Wednesday. With added cloudiness and moisture, temperatures may not even make it out of the 50s for highs Wednesday. Our next chance of rain will arrive Sunday, but this doesn’t appear to be any sort of significant event at this juncture- just a scattered afternoon shower or storm chance at this point. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
A cold front will move through the region this evening and this could spark a thunderstorm, particularly across southeastern IN.
Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday. Factor in increased cloudiness and the unseasonably cool air mass in place and you have the makings for a rather cool, raw day.