Category Archives: Spring

Great Weekend Weather Ahead…

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.40.39 PMHighlights:

  • Another chilly start
  • Lots of weekend sunshine
  • Rain chances continue to decrease for the Indy 500
  • More humid times next week

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.43.59 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above).  As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day.  An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run.  Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening.  A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening.  We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.

Chilly Now; Continuing To Keep A Close Eye On Sunday…

Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24 temperature change (image 1) and the departure from normal (image 2). 

   
 

A storm system to our west is delivering more high mountain snow to CO and also responsible for tornadoes in TX. This system will weaken dramatically over the next 12-24 hours. Dry air will really “eat away” at the more significant precipitation and we’ll maintain mention of light rain in your Wednesday forecast (forecast radar at 12-noon is below) before it’s back to sunshine Thursday!

  
Friday and Saturday will be fantastic days- slowly moderating temperatures and lots of sunshine! 

Attention turns to Sunday and as of now we still don’t have any changes to our forecast. There will be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but it continues to look like best rain and storm chances will remain off to our west most, if not all, of Sunday. Highs will be around 80°. 

Better chances of scattered storms appear to arrive Monday. At this juncture it really doesn’t look like a bad Memorial Day weekend is shaping up in the least. 

   
   

Much Cooler Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-05-18 at 7.35.41 AMHighlights:

  • Spotty shower or storm today
  • Much cooler Tuesday-Thursday
  • Light rain chances Wednesday
  • Keeping a close eye on Race Day/ Memorial Day wknd

A cold front still sits to our west and as the front passes through the region later this evening, an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible, with best chances across the southeast portion of the state.  A much cooler air mass will then filter into the region for mid and late week.  A weakening disturbance may hold together just long enough to deliver some light rain Wednesday.  With added cloudiness and moisture, temperatures may not even make it out of the 50s for highs Wednesday.  Our next chance of rain will arrive Sunday, but this doesn’t appear to be any sort of significant event at this juncture- just a scattered afternoon shower or storm chance at this point.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

1A cold front will move through the region this evening and this could spark a thunderstorm, particularly across southeastern IN.

2Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday.  Factor in increased cloudiness and the unseasonably cool air mass in place and you have the makings for a rather cool, raw day.

Thoughts On The Big Week Ahead…

With the combination of the race and Memorial Day weekend, a busy week is ahead. Here are a few weather headlines that have our attention as we open the week:

  
1.) Short term model data shows the passage of a cold front Monday evening. Before the boundary passes, a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm will remain possible. 

  
2.) Models differ on the chance of rain Wednesday. The European model is most aggressive in delivering just under one quarter inch of rain as a weakening disturbance passes to our west. We’ll include a mention of a shower and some light rain Wednesday, but this doesn’t look to be a big deal as of now. 

  
3.) An unseasonably cool air mass (lower to middle 60s Tuesday through Thursday) will settle into the region tomorrow night and remain with us through the week. Temperatures will slowly begin to moderate heading into the weekend.

  
4.) Focus will remain high on the long weekend ahead. As things stand now, Friday and Saturday will be sunny and very nice, but moisture will be on the increase Sunday. We’re not expecting any all day rains, but do need to maintain a mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. 

One More Pleasant Day Before Warmth And Humidity Increases…

Screen Shot 2015-05-13 at 9.33.32 PMHighlights:

  • Another chilly start
  • Warmth and humidity on the uptick heading into the weekend
  • More dry hours than wet this weekend
  • Much cooler next week

We’ll enjoy one more beautiful day Thursday, though we’ll note an increase in afternoon cloudiness.  While a shower will be possible Thursday evening (courtesy of a warm front passing through the region), it won’t amount to much as dry air will “eat away” at what will look like a rather impressive surge of moisture to our west Thursday morning.  Once the warm front blows through tomorrow night, a much more humid and unseasonably warm air mass will engulf the region to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.

A widely scattered storm will be possible, but there will be many more dry hours than wet.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday night/ Monday as a cold front presses through the region.  Total rainfall potential between this weekend and Monday looks to fall in the half inch to one inch range for most.  A much cooler and drier air mass returns next week (even cooler than this current air mass).

1A light shower will be possible Thursday evening as a warm front lifts through the region.

2Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick Friday and continue through the weekend.  Prepare to sweat as dew points approach 70 degrees this weekend.

3Most widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday evening into Monday, courtesy of a cold front passing through the region.

4A MUCH cooler air mass will settle into the Mid West region next week.  In fact, next week’s chill looks more impressive than our current cool air mass- both from a duration perspective and absolute temperature.

A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 8.51.04 PMHighlights:

  • Much cooler and drier through Thursday
  • Moisture increases this weekend
  • Stormy early next week

A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this.  That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return.  High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend.  Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

hrrr_t2m_indy_14A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning.  Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_9High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_16A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley.  Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

cmc_total_precip_indy_33After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week.  Localized torrential downpours are likely.  Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.

Sunday Morning Thoughts…

First and foremost, here’s wishing a very happy Mother’s Day to all of the moms out there!

May has gotten off to a much warmer and drier than normal start. 

   
 

Today will feature scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm, though, like Saturday, there will also be plenty of dry time.

  
One final push of showers and thunderstorms will arrive Monday. If models are correct, early morning convection would limit the threat of severe weather Monday afternoon. We’ll keep an eye out, but thinking this morning places the emphasis on severe weather across far eastern IN into OH.

   
 

High pressure and a much cooler, drier air mass will invade tomorrow night and carry us through the better part of the week. Tuesday through Thursday look absolutely beautiful. 

  
We’ll keep an eye on the details around a potential storm system arriving late this week that could increase rain chances by the weekend. That said, timing is up for debate and some data pushes better rain chances to early next week. 

Lots Of Dry Time This Weekend, But Scattered Storms Will Be Around…

Screen Shot 2015-05-09 at 10.38.36 AMHighlights:

  • More dry time than not this weekend
  • Strong storm potential Monday
  • Cooler and much drier air moves in Monday night

The region remains in a very warm and moist air mass this weekend and this could help promote a scattered shower or thunderstorm really at any point over the next couple of days.  That said, best concentration of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.  All-in-all, the weekend will feature many more dry hours than not.  A final push of showers and thunderstorms will blow through Monday and some of these could reach strong to severe levels.  We’ll keep a close eye out.  A much cooler and drier air mass arrives Monday night and that will carry us through Thursday.

hrrr_ref_indy_10Most of today will be dry, but forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) suggests showers and thunderstorms build into central IN this afternoon and evening.  Plan on taking rain gear with you if you have outdoor plans and have a means of getting inside should a storm be nearby.

day3otlk_0730The SPC has highlighted a large portion of the Ohio Valley for the threat of severe weather Monday.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be of greatest concern at this time.  While this doesn’t look like a significant widespread severe weather outbreak for our immediate region, let’s remember it only takes one severe storm impacting a community to be significant in that particular neighborhood.

Friday Morning Rambles…

 
May has gotten off to a warm (dare I say hot?) start. The past couple days have felt more like July than May with mid to upper 80s commonplace.

We’ll add humidity this weekend and it’ll feel downright sultry at times as dew points climb to around 70°. Talk about muggy. 

 
This combined with precipitable water values climbing to 1.5″-2″ will promote locally torrential downpours over the weekend into Monday. It won’t rain the entire time and there will be several hours of dry weather in between.

 

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the threat of severe potential Monday as a cold front sweeps the region.

 
A MUCH cooler and drier feel will blast into the state early next week. Note the difference in air masses from what we showed you above and the much drier air coming Tuesday. 

 
We have a few more days of unseasonably warm and humid conditions ahead before a more comfortable brand of air moves in. Also, while it won’t rain all weekend, keep that rain gear handy for localized storms developing later this evening, continuing in an off and on fashion through the weekend.