This Is More Like It…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend. With the exception of a weak disturbance that may kick up a couple showers across northeastern portions of the state Saturday, the balance of the upcoming 7-day period will be rain-free. This extended dry spell is certainly well deserved and should continue into early next week. Get out there and make the most of it!
A southwesterly air flow will help transport a warmer and increasingly muggy air mass into the region next week. While we’ll need to keep an eye on this increasingly moist and unstable air mass for storm chances, we’re siding with a more “optimistic” approach to the forecast period and hold storm chances off until Thursday. Regardless of storm chances, next week will certainly take on a more summer-like feel…to the delight of many!
A cold front will settle south today and lead to quite the temperature gradient across the state. Cooler north breezes will result in slowly falling or steady temperatures across the northern half of the state (upper 50s to lower 60s), while southern portions of Indiana rise into the lower and middle 70s this afternoon.
A new batch of showers will ride east and impact areas mainly along and south of I-70 as we move into late morning and early afternoon. While some embedded thunder is possible, severe weather isn’t expected today.
Drier and cooler air wins out for all tonight and paves way for a gorgeous weekend ahead. High pressure will support plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions. More on the weekend and next week’s weather later today in an updated 7-day!
While it won’t rain the entire weekend, central Indiana should be prepared for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days. For those with outdoor plans this weekend, unfortunately what we’re seeing this evening is only the beginning of stormy times ahead. There will be periods of dry weather in between the waves of storms, but the big story will be the hefty rain totals come Monday morning and embedded severe storms to boot.
Moisture content continues to increase across central Indiana this evening.
Forecast radar shows the waves of moisture that will impact the region throughout the night. We project most widespread heavy rain arrives on the scene Saturday morning.
While scattered strong to severe storms will remain in our forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday, we think the most widespread rains will diminish as we progress through the afternoon hours Saturday. That said, with such high moisture content, any storms that develop will be plenty capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short timeframe. It should also be mentioned that as the warm front lifts north, central Indiana will get into an increasingly warm and moist air mass Saturday afternoon and Sunday. In fact, highs Sunday may approach the lower to middle 80s. Add in a dew point that will approach 70°, a true muggy, summer-like feel will result.
Overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to, once again, increase Sunday evening into the overnight period. Additional heavy rain is expected and with saturated soils in place, flash flooding may result. If you live near a creek or stream, please pay attention to the water levels into early next week.
The Storm Prediction Center outlines the region for the potential of severe weather tonight through Sunday (don’t be surprised if the “Slight Risk” is pulled further north on Sunday in future updates from the SPC).
Once all is said and done, we anticipate widespread 2″-3″ rainfall totals through central Indiana, but also note there will be localized heavier amounts. Once to Monday we’ll look at a much cooler, windy, and “showery” regime. Look for falling temperatures through the day Monday and this will set the stage for the week ahead: MUCH cooler, overall…. More on that later this weekend!
We still have a few nice days to enjoy this week before our forecast takes an increasingly wet shift as we progress through the weekend. As a side note, we still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but this shouldn’t be a significant event, locally.
What will become an increasing concern is the threat of periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms this weekend. The overall setup is a classic one for widespread heavy rain.
An area of high pressure will be located off the Mid Atlantic coast while surface low pressure develops in the southern Plains and tracks north over the weekend. The combination of these two ingredients will help pull abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Ohio Valley. With a true Gulf connection, moisture-rich air will overspread the region this weekend. In addition to feeling truly muggy for the first time this year, this will also aid in periods of heavy rain this weekend.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ at times this weekend and that’s plenty enough to create a localized flash flood concern.
From this distance, it appears like widespread 2″ to 3″ of rain will fall over the weekend, but localized heavier totals are expected where thunderstorms “train” over the same areas. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, times of wet weather will outnumber dry hours and if you live near a creek or stream, keep abreast of this developing weather situation as significant water rise is expected over the weekend.
After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead. Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon. Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon. Enjoy!
High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week. This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine. With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings. Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period. Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.
We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north. Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend. We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.
Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.
Jackets Required Today, But Improving Weather Tomorrow…A stiff northeast wind is “eating away” at the northern extent of rain today. Steadiest rains will fall across the southern third of the state, but a couple of showers may make it as far north as Indianapolis later this afternoon. The bigger story will easily be the brisk northeast flow and unseasonably chilly air. In fact, we’re waking up to wind chills in the 30s this morning. Jackets are required today.
Drier air arrives on the scene tonight and clouds will decrease overnight, paving way for a beautiful Sunday. Expect plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures. Dry and pleasant weather continues into midweek before an approaching cold front delivers our next chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening.
Another fast-moving weather maker will deliver thunderstorm chances to close the work week.
Thursday Rumbles…While storms have pressed through the northern portions of the state today, we’ve enjoyed a couple days of pleasant weather across most of central Indiana. That will come to an end Thursday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours. A few of these storms could become strong-to-severe, including damaging wind and large hail potential. The cold front will pass Thursday night and help usher in a briefly drier and much cooler air mass to close out the work week.
Our next storm system will pass south of the region Saturday and result in thickening and lowering clouds Friday evening, and showers Saturday. With a stiff east wind, showers at times, and temperatures well below average, we have the makings for a downright “raw” spring day Saturday. The second half of the weekend will easily be “the pick” as we return to drier air and increasing sunshine Sunday afternoon.
Early next week looks to get off to a pleasant start, including plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures.
Central Indiana will undergo significant temperatures swings over the upcoming week. A southerly and southwesterly flow will push an unseasonably warm and moist airmass north to encompass all of the region as we progress through Wednesday and Thursday.
As a cold front slices into the summer-like warmth (highs will approach 80° Wednesday afternoon), scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into Thursday.
We then will shift gears rather abruptly as we move through the latter portions of the work week and on into the weekend with well below normal chill. In fact, if current data comes to fruition, most of the weekend will be spent in the 40s.
Factor in a stiff northeast wind and periods of rain, we have the makings for a downright “raw” weekend. We suggest having indoor activities planned this weekend as an extended period of damp, blustery, and unseasonably cool weather awaits.
We still have a few days to continue watching the data, but early indications suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible (1″-2″) across the region…
Pleasant Open To The Week…High pressure will slowly build into the Ohio Valley through early portions of the work week. Periods of clouds will be with us today before we clear things out in earnest tonight, resulting in a mostly sunny and beautiful Tuesday.
Our next storm system arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning with scattered thunderstorms. With a southerly wind flow in place, a touch of humidity can also be expected Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will pass early Thursday and result in a much cooler close to the work week.
Attention then shifts to our next storm system that will, unfortunately, arrive on the scene this weekend. Clouds will overspread the region Saturday and rain will develop. Early indications suggest we’ll also need to hit the wind and unseasonably cool air, as well for the weekend.