Category Archives: Spring

Almost Summer-like Today Before Sunday Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-04-18 at 8.02.52 AMHighlights:

  • Lower 80s today!
  • Heavy rain and storms Sunday
  • Cooler, showery Monday
  • MUCH cooler next week

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANIThis morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies.  This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days.  Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening.  After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning.  With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well.  Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!

Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_12Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead.  Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.

hires_ref_indy_32 hires_ref_indy_37 hires_ref_indy_40An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday.  The model breakdown is below.

The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.

GEMTotThe GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.

GFSTotThe high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.

NAMTotThe RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.

RGEMTot

 

Warm Now, But Cooler Times Loom…

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 7.28.41 AMHighlights:

  • Early morning dense fog
  • Warm and dry close to the week
  • Wet and stormy second half of the weekend
  • Much cooler next week
  • 7-Day model average precipitation totals range from 1″ to 1.5″, with locally heavier totals

SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANIThe infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range.  Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.

Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana.  Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend.  Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_t2m_max_indy_5

hires_t2m_max_indy_12Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley.  This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_ref_indy_61The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.

day3otlk_0730As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east.  Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.

D4

Warm Close To The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 7.25.29 AMWarm And Dry To Close The Week; MUCH Cooler Next Week…After a wet and noisy night for some, we can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm really at any time today, particularly across southeastern parts of the state.  However, most of the day will be dry.

Drier air will win out tonight and set the stage for a beautiful and warm close to the week.  Both Friday and Saturday look to offer lots of sunshine and well above normal warmth!  Get out and enjoy, friends!

A cold front will move into the region Sunday into Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Some of these storms may be strong.  Stay tuned.

The story next week will be one that’s MUCH cooler.  The weather pattern will shift in rather drastic fashion to wrap up the month.  Gone will be the warm southwesterly air flow we’ve come to enjoy most of the month and in it’s place will be a significant trough and associated northwest flow.  As such, we can expect multiple surges of cooler than normal air during the last 7-10 days of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Weekend Questions…

Screen Shot 2015-04-14 at 9.38.13 PMNot As Bad As It May Look…Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.  Moisture will stream in from the south Wednesday evening and nighttime showers will develop across central Indiana, continuing into Thursday (though we can also expect several dry hours).

Friday will also feature mostly dry conditions, but we’ll maintain a mention of a widely scattered shower.  Overall, increasing sunshine and a southerly air flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s Friday.

The weekend features lots of questions as two of our more trusted computer models are in totally different camps as of this evening.  The European suggests dry and warm conditions (a great weekend, weather-wise) will rule; however, the GFS model is more unsettled and cooler.  For now we’ll take a blend of the two, leaning more towards the GFS due to better run-to-run consistency.  Stay tuned as updates will be required.

Cooler air will become the story as we open next week and jackets may be needed Tuesday with a gusty northwest breeze.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Cooler Times Ahead…

April so far has run much warmer than normal across our region, and a large part of the country.

  

However, a rather significant shift in the pattern will take place around the 20th (give or take a day or two) that will send much cooler air into areas that have been so warm month-to-date. 

Ridging across western Canada will likely help send a couple of surges of unseasonably cool air into the Mid West and Ohio Valley, including the threat of frost and freeze conditions.

  

This isn’t too out of the ordinary for late season cold, but will serve as a rude shock to the system for a month that’s been running so warm. In fact, the median date of the last freeze across our region runs between mid and late April.

  

Chilly air will likely carry us through the end of April and, at times, combine with damp conditions. This will lead to rather raw conditions where the jacket will certainly be needed, but is good news in the severe weather department as quieter than normal times look likely in that department. 

   

 

Nice Close To The Weekend…

Screen Shot 2015-04-12 at 10.07.58 AMWrapping Up The Weekend On A Nice Note…Look for lots of sunshine to start the day before mid and high level cloudiness slowly increase during the second half of the day.  It’ll be a warm afternoon as highs approach 70 degrees.

Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front that will sweep through central Indiana Monday afternoon/ evening.  Some of the shorter term forecast models are hinting at a thin line of thunderstorms preceding the frontal passage Monday afternoon.

We’re back to dry and pleasant conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but the dry times won’t last.  A rather unsettled pattern appears to lie ahead late week and heading into next weekend. There’s considerable inconsistencies with run to run output from our computer models, so the forecast confidence during the aforementioned period is lower than normal.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″ – 1.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Sun-Filled Weekend; Rain Returns Monday…

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 8.01.05 AMWell Deserved Sunshine…After a week of storms and rain, this forecast should be music to the ears of most Hoosiers.  We forecast both today and Sunday to offer up plentiful sunshine and very pleasant temperatures.  Get out there and enjoy it!

Moisture increases Monday and we’ll introduce showers into the forecast as a southerly flow takes hold in advance of a weak cold front.

Mid week should feature drier conditions before a stronger storm system provides a wet end to the week, complete with thunderstorms Thursday and cooler, more showery weather Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

ECMF_phase_51m_small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Severe Weather Thursday; Nice Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-08 at 9.13.14 PMStay Weather Aware…As we type this central Indiana is enjoying a brief lull in what’s been a rather active day, complete with strong to severe thunderstorms.  Latest scans of our short term forecast models suggest the quiet times don’t last long as more thunderstorms rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  Hail, vivid lightning, and additional flooding is possible with overnight/ early Thursday morning storms.

Attention then shifts to the possibility of a rather significant severe weather outbreak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, particularly if we get rid of morning convection and cloud debris.  Tonight’s data would suggest we do clear things out Thursday afternoon and this would add “fuel to the fire” for potential severe weather Thursday night.  All modes of severe weather are in play Thursday night, including large hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Flash flooding will also remain a concern as some areas have accumulated more than 3″ of rain today alone.

The cold front and associated surface low responsible for Thursday’s severe weather will sweep the state Friday and usher in a much cooler and breezy regime Friday evening that will continue into Saturday.  Sunshine returns in full force Saturday and Sunday.  Perfect timing, huh?!

Enjoy that sunshine and calmer times of the weekend as rainy and stormy conditions return quickly early next week.  All-in-all, the overall theme remains a warm, wet, and stormy one.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.50″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″