• Category Archives Spring
  • Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

    February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

    The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

    That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

    Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…


  • Awesome Weekend Weather Continues; Changes Ahead Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Spring-like weather rolls along
    • Shower chances return
    • Strong t-storm potential
    • Different tune next weekend

    Is This February?  Our stretch of unseasonably pleasant, spring-like, weather will continue for the second half of the weekend and as we progress into the early stages of the work week.  Find a way to get outside the next couple of days (that’s an order ;-)).

    A weak weather system will scoot through here Tuesday and serve to increase our cloud cover, along with a few scattered showers.  Dry conditions return Wednesday, but by then all eyes will be on an approaching stronger storm system that will provide increased shower coverage by Thursday and strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday.  Speaking of severe weather, we think this spring will offer up a busy severe weather season.  We’ll have additional updates on the severe potential as time gets closer, but just keep a mental note Friday could be a busy weather day.

    We’ll abruptly transition back to winter Friday night and the air will grow cold enough a week from today to allow scattered snow showers to fly in a gusty northwesterly breeze next Saturday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Uneventful Weather; Warming Up Late Week…

    Highlights:

    • Dry weather this week
    • Briefly cooler mid week
    • Weekend warm-up

    Sunglasses Required…We’re opening the work week with crystal clear blue skies and cold temperatures. Mostly sunny conditions will give way to increasing high level cloudiness this afternoon/ evening as a storm system passes by to our south.  That increase in cloudiness is about as “exciting” as it gets this week in the weather department.  Reinforcing chilly conditions will dive south into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we’ll remain precipitation-free.

    Like so many other cold blasts this winter, the chill won’t have staying power and we’ll get back to a moderating trend heading into the weekend.  Many places will likely come close to 70° by the second half of the weekend as dry conditions remain. Enjoy friends!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • High Pressure Supports A Quiet Week; Colder Then Warming Again…

    Quick post from the road on this Sunday morning before a more extensive update tonight. 

    High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and support a quiet week, overall. 


    A “pop” of cold air will flow into the state on gusty northerly winds Tuesday night and set-up a cold midweek stretch. 


    Highs will fall into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. However, like so many other cold shots over the past 6 weeks, it’s of the “in and out” variety. By late week, southwest winds are developing and helping temperatures moderate going into the weekend. 


    We should remain dry next weekend before a more significant storm system arrives during early portions of Week 2. With dry conditions, a strengthening southwest flow and strong upper ridge, highs next weekend will approach 65°-70°.  

    With two weekends in a row of spring-like weather in February we sure have to believe we’ll have to pay for the nice conditions late month into March before true sustained spring conditions can take hold…


  • Buckle Up: Spring, Winter, Spring…

    Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 7.04.56 AMHighlights:

    • Periods of storms Tuesday
    • Snowy Wednesday for some
    • Warming back up this weekend with storms

    Dramamine Required…The “tug of war” weather pattern will continue through the forecast period with winter and spring each having difficulty taking control for any length of time…

    Walking out the door this morning will have you checking the calendar to see if it, indeed, is early February.  As we type this Tuesday morning, temperatures are in the lower 60s across many central IN neighborhoods.  That unseasonably warm air mass will help fuel t-storm development through the mid afternoon hours and a couple of these storms could reach severe levels, including damaging winds.

    The cold front will sweep through the state this afternoon putting an end to the storminess and resulting in colder air spilling into the region tonight.  A disturbance will quickly move into the colder air mass Wednesday and this will result in an area of snow developing during the day.  This is a tricky system as the recent warm, wet ground would argue against much, if any, accumulation.  However, localized banding features likely will lead to more intense snowfall rates across portions of north-central IN Wednesday afternoon-evening and this would overcome the warm surface temperatures and lead to local slushy accumulations.  We feel at this time, the best bet for a potential 1″-2″ slushy snowfall will be just north of the city and we’ll have a snowfall forecast map out this evening (want to give the 12z modeling a good look).

    We’ll turn much colder Thursday before wrapping up the work week with a windy, milder feel Friday.

    The next storm will arrive over the weekend and serve to give the thermometer another spring-like look, but, similar to today, storms will follow Sunday…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

    1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

    gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

    gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

    gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

    02.01.17Teleconnections


  • Spring-Like Weekend, But Changes Loom…

    Screen Shot 2017-01-20 at 10.25.29 PMHighlights:

    • Spring-like weekend
    • Unsettled times continue
    • Winter returns

    Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel.  Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s.  Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day.  Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉

    A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend.  This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend.  The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening.  We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged.  Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.

    Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.

    We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Active Times, My Friend…

    We enjoyed a brilliant Saturday across central Indiana. Plentiful sunshine developed, as expected, after a cloudy, drizzly start in areas. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 60s for most. We’ll continue to enjoy the sun Sunday and temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s with a developing southwest breeze.

    All of that said, let’s be sure to enjoy the sunshine and quiet times while we can. Looking into the mid to long range suggests the “boring” weather days will be few and far between from here through the first week of May.

    We’re tracking storm systems in an almost every-other-day type format beginning Monday. 10-day rainfall numbers are impressive (2″-4″ locally) and many areas of the Ohio Valley, Mid West, and TN Valley will be significantly above normal precipitation during the period to close April and open May.

       
     
    Note the European ensemble highlighting the busy storm track over the upcoming 10 days. By the way, we’ll have to also keep a close eye on each system for thunderstorm (strong to severe) potential.

       
      
        

    There’s also growing confidence on a late season blast of chilly air as we open May, including a frost/ freeze threat.

       
     
    We’ll keep a close eye on that in the days ahead…

    Make it a great evening. A fresh 7-day will be posted tomorrow.

     


  • Strong To Severe Storms By Easter Evening…

    Happy Easter!  From all of us at IndyWx.com, we wish you a blessed day!

    Easter Sunday is off to a beautiful start with lots of sunshine, temperatures in the 40s, and light winds.  Unfortunately, things will begin to change in rather significant fashion as early as the evening hours.  Beforehand, expect sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower 70s across many central IN neighborhoods.  It’ll turn increasingly moist, as well, as surface dew points jump into the lower 60s.

    Highs today will reach the lower 70s.
    Highs today will reach the lower 70s.
    Dew points will climb into the lower 60s by evening.
    Dew points will climb into the lower 60s by evening.

    An approaching area of low pressure and associated cold front will provide just enough spin/ lift, in combination with the warmth and increasingly moist air mass, to ignite storms this evening.  Some of these storms will likely reach strong to severe levels.  We’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds and large hail.

    High resolution simulated radar data suggests storms ignite around 6p across central IN.  We caution that this image should be used as guidance and not taken verbatim.

    hrrr_ref_indy_11Have a way to get the latest weather information later this afternoon and evening.  Watches or warnings may be required…