• Category Archives Short term update
  • Wednesday Morning Update…

    Good morning and happy Wednesday! Forecast models continue to provide a bit of a headache concerning our developing weather situation, but here’s our best take moving forward:

    The morning is off to a pleasant start with partly cloudy skies. We note, yet again, some reporting sites are into the middle to upper 50s. Mid and high level cloudiness will increase today, especially during the evening hours. At the surface, low pressure will approach from the west late tonight through Thursday morning and spread moisture east into portions of the region. Locally, a dry air mass is in place and this combined with a continued dry east to northeast flow should limit how far north rain makes it across central Indiana. As of now heaviest rains should fall across extreme downstate with lighter amounts along the I-70 corridor. We’ll continue to monitor for changes.

    The system will pull out of the region Thursday evening and rain will diminish from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours. Drier air will return and set us up for a beautiful close to the work week. 

    *Fresh 7-day will be posted tonight.


  • Tuesday Evening Video Update!

    Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

    While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.
    While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.


  • Soaking Rain Ahead Tuesday Into Wednesday.

    We still think most of today is dry and while we’re off to a cloudy start, the latest scan of the visible satellite image would suggest some brightening of the sky is a good bet from time to time late morning into the afternoon.

    20140609_1145_sm_EVV_vis

    Enjoy whatever sunshine you see today, as clouds begin to lower and thicken this evening and widespread rain won’t be far behind.  The simulated radar shows rain and embedded thunder will be rather widespread Tuesday.

    6am Tuesday future radar product
    6am Tuesday future radar product
    11a Tuesday future radar product
    11a Tuesday future radar product
    2a Wednesday future radar product
    2a Wednesday future radar product

    Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be a good bet between Tuesday and Wednesday and we feel the short-term, high resolution, NAM forecast model has a good handle on the distribution of precipitation.  There will be locally heavier totals.

    hires_t_precip_ky_20

    We’ll have your complete 7-day forecast updated and posted later this evening!


  • Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

    Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

    Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

    Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

    All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

    UPDATED021714


  • Complicated And Complex…

    If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types.  In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”

    Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:

    A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.

    Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south.  Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night…  Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night.  What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday.  That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).

    We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above.  This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.

    hires_snow_acc_indy_18

     

     


  • Period Of Heavy Snow Coming

    Latest short-term, high resolution, models are showing what’s taking shape nicely this morning. We think the city and points north will undergo a period of moderate to heavy snow from late morning into the early afternoon hours.

    Within the highlighted area, we think snowfall rates will approach 1″ per hour between 10a-2p.  Yes, within that (4) hour time period, don’t be surprised if a few reports come in with 3-4 additional inches of snow atop what’s already fallen, particularly across the northern half of the highlighted area.

    HVYSnow

    Here’s a look at the latest HRRR model simulated radar showing the swath of moderate to heavy snow coming over the next few hours.  Again, high snowfall rates will make plowing duties difficult so if you must travel, please take things slow.

    hrrr_ref_ne_8

    South-central Indiana will see dramatically less snow due to mixing issues (as forecast) and the dry slot that is arriving now.  The track of the upper low should lock moderate to heavy snow into central and north-central Indiana into the early to mid afternoon.  All of the snow will then begin to diminish and move northeast during the early to mid afternoon, as our storm system departs.  This will then allow northwest winds to strengthen and become gusty this evening, with cold air pouring back into the region.


  • Short Term Update 5:34p: Another Line of Broken Showers?

    We note radar trends and short-term model data tries to swing another quick-moving broken line of showers and embedded thunder through central Indiana this evening.

    Radar as of 5:30p

    radar

    Short term model data continues to point to this broken line of showers and embedded thunder moving south and east with time as the secondary (more potent) cold front passes this evening.

    Capture

    Again, most stay dry, but don’t be surprised to see a quick-moving shower or clap of thunder later this evening.

    Your updated 7-Day forecast can be found below, and remember you can follow us on Twitter and Facebook for continuous updates on the go!