• Category Archives NAM Model
  • Snowy Morning Commute…

    Our high resolution data concentrates a period of moderate to heavy snow bracketed between 5a-8a Tuesday. * Localized intense bands of snow will likely be embedded and may lead to near whiteout conditions at times. 

       
     
    You’ll want to allow plenty of extra time to reach work or school later this morning as snow will likely be falling at a good clip across central IN.

    Temperatures will plummet this afternoon. Winds will also increase late morning into the afternoon and gust upwards of 40 MPH. Blowing and drifting will be a concern.

    No changes to our thinking of 1″-3″ across the area before all is said and done. 


  • Periods Of Heavy Rain…

    Saturday will dawn dry across the region, but that will quickly begin to change as morning progresses into afternoon. Moisture is streaming north and a “wavy” frontal system will remain draped across our region through the weekend into early next week before a surface low finally sweeps a cold front through here Monday evening.

    Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows rain expanding in coverage this afternoon.

      
    Periods of heavy rain will fall across the region between this afternoon and Monday. 

       
       
    We note precipitable water reaches in excess of 1.5″ and adds to our confidence of heavy rain coming. Note also the true GOM connection with this storm system.

      
    Models agree on heavy to excessive rains falling with widespread storm totals between 3″-5″.

       
       
    The storm system will finally begin to pull away Monday night, leaving drier, breezy, and cooler air in it’s wake. 

      
    The true push of cold air awaits until the end of the week.

    Your full 7-day outlook can be found here.


  • Heading In The Wrong Direction…

    Screen Shot 2015-04-20 at 3.32.01 PMHighlights:

    • Prolonged unseasonably cool weather
    • Band of showers late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
    • Frost potential late week
    • Watching a storm system Friday night/ Saturday

    SAT_ERG2_VIS_ANISurface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN.  Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing.  It’s a gusty day and that will continue.  Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period.  The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday.  Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track.  Stay tuned.

    1Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.

    2The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend.  The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.

    3Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends.  After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.


  • Line Of Showers And T-storms Early This Afternoon…

    A thin line of showers and thunderstorms will push through central Indiana around lunchtime through the early afternoon hours. 

    The HRRR (top) is much less aggressive than the high resolution NAM. Nonetheless, both shorter term models push this thin line of showers and storms into central parts of the state around, or just after, the lunchtime hour.

       

     

    Rainfall totals won’t be terribly heavy, but expect some brief downpours, gusty winds, and lightning. For the most part, rainfall totals of 0.10″-0.25″ are a good bet. Some isolated heavier totals are possible downstate.

      

    Rain and storms will begin to press south of the area by late afternoon and evening as drier air arrives. 

    We’re back to sunshine and pleasant temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region. 

      


  • Icy Tuesday Morning…

    We continue to be very concerned about the likelihood of an icing event across central Indiana late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. A significant snowpack in place won’t allow temperatures to “warm” fast enough to prevent  a rather significant freezing rain event during this time frame. Travel will likely be highly impacted. 

    Freezing rain will develop during the overnight tonight and continue through the morning hours Tuesday. 

    

    

    High resolution data shows temperatures not making it above freezing for most of central Indiana until early Tuesday afternoon (somewhere between 1p-3p). That’s nearly 12 hours of icing potential. 

    

    As for the heavy rain and potential flooding issues, we target downstate for those concerns. Across most of central Indiana we don’t think temperatures will warm enough (barely to 40° before falling late Tuesday night), nor that rainfall will be heavy enough. Note the high resolution NAM focuses the heavy rain threat across the southeastern portion of the state. 

    


  • Winter Storm Tonight-Saturday

    Good morning and happy Friday, friends!  Boy, Old Man Winter is really beginning to turn some minds around from thinking this was an easy winter to one that’s quite impressive, especially from a cold standpoint.  By the way, there’s MUCH more from where this came from!  Essentially we remain on “lock down” for more brutally cold and wintry conditions for the upcoming 7-10 day period.  More on that later.

    Here’s a look at our initial snowfall forecast map for tonight and Saturday:

    2201522115SnowMapForecast radar shows heavy wet snow encompassing central Indiana Saturday morning:

    hires_ref_indy_29Bullet point highlights you need to know:

    • Snow will overspread central Indiana from the southwest between 10p-1a
    • Snow will become heavy at times between 3a-7a
    • Sleet and freezing rain will accumulate significantly downstate
    • Most of the snow will be east of the area by 3p Saturday
    • You’ll want to plow and clean snow up Saturday night as cold air quickly returns Sunday
    • Arctic outbreak next week likely will feature record cold, and colder than this week has been
    • No let-up in sight from this unrelenting winter pattern


  • Snowy Evening Ahead…

    We’re still on track for accumulating snow arriving into central Indiana this afternoon and continuing through the evening. Expect the rush hour to be impacted.

    Snow will overspread central Indiana between 3 and 4 o’clock. Snow intensity, for the most part, will be light, but don’t be surprised for a couple moderate bursts at times. Snow should begin to diminish and push south towards 8 or 9 o’clock. On average we still expect 1″-3″ to fall across the region (those 2″-3″ amounts likely will be confined to areas north of I-70).

    (null)

    (null)

    (null)

    (null)

    The other big story will be the frigid air that settles over the region tonight. Most should awake to single digits (below zero wind chill values) Thursday morning. Also note the deeper snow cover up north allows temperatures to really bottom out into the single digits below zero.

    (null)

    Plan for a snowy and slick evening commute, friends. Take it slow and leave extra time to get to your destination.


  • Wet Stretch Ahead…

    First, be sure and scroll down to the next post (from Thursday night) on our long range thinking.

    We’re focusing on a wet 24 hours ahead, Hoosiers. Rain will build into the region by mid morning. Here’s a look at forecast radar at 10a with rain knocking on our doorstep.

    IMG_1952.PNG

    Waves of rain will move through central Indiana this evening into the overnight. Periods of heavy rain will be likely tonight into early Saturday morning.

    IMG_1955.PNG

    IMG_1956.PNG

    Rain should be east of the area by lunch time Saturday and we’ll begin the drying process.

    IMG_1957.PNG

    Rainfall totals between Friday morning and Saturday morning will range anywhere from 1-2″ across southern and central parts of the state.

    IMG_1953.PNG


  • Tuesday Morning Wintry Mix….

    Our high resolution models continue to be rather aggressive on the idea of a wintry mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain falling across central Indiana Tuesday morning. The HRRR and high resolution NAM suggest we need to pay attention to things closely.

    IMG_1928.PNG

    IMG_1927.PNG

    While we likely aren’t looking at significant accumulations of wintry precipitation, we’ll continue to monitor as it won’t take much to lead to a slick commute for some Tuesday morning. It’s all part of the challenging weather pattern that features a combination of cold high pressure systems across the northern tier (feeding just enough chill into the region) and a stalled front south.