• Category Archives Monthly Outlook
  • Thursday Evening Rambles…

    1.) 10-day Client discussions (Pro and Premium) and our March Outlook (Premium) has been sent to your inbox.

    2.)  A windy warm-up is still on track as we wrap up the work week.  Temperatures tomorrow through Sunday will have many craving spring, including anomalies more than 20 degrees above normal.  Winds will be strong and gusty, however, with gusts upwards of 50 MPH a good bet Friday across central IN.  A “big hair warning” remains in effect. 🙂

    3.)  Find a way to get out and enjoy the warmth tomorrow and Saturday as better rain chances invade Sunday.

    4.) Winter is far from over and things should turn much colder as early as the early to middle part of next week.  We still have our eyes on another significant winter storm mid week, but, as has been the case this winter, most data keeps this significant event east of our region.  Nonetheless, we will continue to keep a close eye on things.

    5.) We have to watch for clipper activity late next week/ next weekend in the colder and active NW flow.

    If you’d like more information about our consulting services and detailed long range commercial video updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for further details.


  • Winter Delayed, Not Denied: Updated Canadian; MJO

    We’ll talk later today about the upcoming winter storm threat next weekend. While nothing is set in stone at this juncture, the pattern is aligning in a fashion for the region to at least be on the table for wintry potential early week 2. Again, more later.

    The updated Canadian monthlies are in and remain firm on the idea of a lot of winter as we progress into mid and late winter.

    February upper air pattern, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.
     

    February temperature anamolies, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

      

    March upper air pattern, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.

      
    March temperature anomalies, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.

      
    The model has things finally breaking come April.

      
    It should also be pointed out the model led the charge on forecasting a cold January. Other data is jumping onboard the cold train for January now. 

    Additionally, the MJO forecast supports this cold look in the upcoming several weeks, rolling right through the cold phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.

      
      
    At the end of the day, we still don’t have changes in the short term (step-down process to cold the first half of January before turning colder in a more sustained fashion for the second half of the month) or long term (warm open to winter flipping to cold for mid winter into early spring). 

    When we look back at the 2015-2016 winter, it’s likely going to be known for being a case of delayed, but certainly not denied…  


  • Iron Bowl Saturday: December Rambles…

    This is a special day in the McMillan house.  Iron Bowl Saturday only comes around one day a year… Needless to say, the Auburn flags have been on the vehicles since Wednesday, we’re decked out in our orange and blue, and game faces are on for this evening’s matchup.  WAR EAGLE!

    As we get set to flip the calendar to December, we wanted to post some latest thinking.

    Let’s take a look at the latest teleconnections.  As we’ve been talking, there’s a lot of “noise” in model land, including conflicting signals.  The positive NAO and AO argue for warmer than average conditions, while the positive PNA suggests chillier than normal times should prevail.

    We wanted to post the latest model predictions of each teleconnections, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  Additionally, courtesy of madusweather.com, here’s what each teleconnection “phase” would normally lead to in December.

    NAO

    Screen Shot 2015-11-28 at 10.55.21 AMNAOpos_12dec

    AO

    Screen Shot 2015-11-28 at 10.55.07 AMAOpos_12dec

    PNA

    Screen Shot 2015-11-28 at 10.55.34 AMPNApos_12decSimply based on the teleconnections, you would build a December forecast that would lean more warm than cold, as the short term positive AO and NAO should trump the positive PNA.  As we look at the month, as a whole, the AO and NAO are forecast to trend more neutral, while the PNA remains solidly positive.  Does this suggest colder air, relative to normal, would invade mid and late month?  – Certainly something to watch.

    Additionally, the latest Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), has begun to take a negative hit.  This is after weeks of positive SOI values- relative to the base state.

    Screen Shot 2015-11-28 at 10.47.52 AM

     

     

     

     

    While it takes a while to impact the pattern, locally, this negative hit does suggest mid and late month could be a bit more interesting from a wintry perspective.  We shall see.

    The CFSv2 remains very consistent on a warm month, relative to normal, particularly across the northern tier.

    cfs_anom_z500_noram_201512_w3cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201512_w3

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    While we can’t post the European weeklies here, the latest run suggests colder, and stormy times around Christmas week.  Now, we should also note the overall performance of the Weeklies hasn’t been as accurate compared to normal over the past few months, but it’s another interesting trend to keep an eye on.

    The MJO will begin the month in Phase 3 before going into the “wheel house.”  All-in-all, we don’t get a “hat tip” from the expected monthly MJO forecast, with the exception of Phase 3 to begin (warm phase).

    EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full

    Screen Shot 2015-11-28 at 11.53.45 AMTo sum up:  Long range forecasting is always a gamble.  Only the good Lord knows what the future holds.  That said, there are times when we feel more confident about our long range, monthly outlooks, more so than normal.

    We’ll lean warmer than normal for December (+ 1.5 at IND), and this really plays into our Winter Outlook (slow start expected with the emphasis on the cold and snow mid and late winter), but that doesn’t mean we’re expecting a “boring” month.  Keep in mind November has been both warmer AND snowier than normal, with a very busy 2nd half of the month.

    We’ll have plenty of challenges to handle as we rumble through the month no doubt, but we expect the positive AO and NAO to trump the positive PNA to start to the month.  As we progress into mid and late month, we’ll have to be on alert for potential impacts of that significant SOI hit to open the month.  We’ll also keep the Weeklies in check to see if the colder, stormy look Christmas week remains.  It’ll be fun, as always.

    To close, here’s one more emphatic WAR EAGLE from our home to yours! 🙂


  • CFSv2 Catching On?

    Just a quick post to highlight the recent trend from the CFSv2. Note as we’ve progressed through the past couple weeks the model has been shifting the mean ridge position further and further west for October.

    9.14.15-9.28.15 average:

     
    9.21.15-9.28.15 average:

     9.25.15-9.28.15 average:

      
      
    With each updated model chunk the mean ridge position is shifting further and further west. We would lean towards this trend continuing as the model continues to update. 

    The end result is a colder than average pattern for the Plains into the east in the face of what was once projected (by the CFSv2) to be a very warm October for the aforementioned area. Needless to say, this is interesting and something to consider as we continue to rumble deeper into the colder months ahead….


  • August Outlook

    Before we dive into what we expect for the month of August, here’s a look at where we stand so far for July (with 4 days left as of this post).

    This was our July forecast upper air pattern, issued 6.29:

    July2015UAHere’s a look at temperature anomalies through 7.27:

    ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomWhile overnight lows have been running warm with all of the clouds and moisture, daytime highs have been significantly below average:

    tmax30dydevWith four days left in the month, it’s already been the wettest month on record at IND.  The Corn Belt, as a whole, has been quite wet month-to-date.

    nws_precip_conus2_mtd nws_precip_indy_mtd precip30dydevAs we progress into August (where does time go) we think we continue in an active pattern, locally, biased cooler than normal and wetter than normal.

    AugustUA2015While modeling disagrees with the specifics in regards to the timing, most mid to long range modeling does agree on the overall idea of the hot dome (ridge) backing west and setting up shop over the southwest portion of the country early August which will put our region in (you guessed it) the favorable northwest flow for active weather.  Similar to July, disturbances will ride the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest and offer up plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms.  That’s not to say we’re looking at setting another record for greatest amount of rain within a month, but it is saying precipitation should be above average yet again.

    From time to time the ridge will attempt to expand northeast, but we don’t think it’s potentially until the last portion of the month before the ridge has much chance to encompass our region for any staying power more than a few days.  We suggest getting used to this 500mb look:

    EarlyAugThe latest NAEFS and CFSv2 highlights the cooler than normal period we should undergo early August (especially after the 5th).

    wk1.wk2_20150726.NAsfcT2015072712_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186The latest European Weeklies suggest there may be a window for a “calmer” regime after the 25th.  That said, it’s a rather volatile pattern.

    Yet another tool we’ve been keeping a close eye on the past few months has been the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) as it’s been a big help in tipping us off for prolonged wet weather.  Note the consistent negative SOI:

    Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 11.22.11 PM

     

     

     

     

     

     

    World

    Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think the relentless wet weather pattern “keeps on keepin’ on” as we progress through August.  It’s very interesting to note the dynamics at play between the strengthening El Nino and warm northeast PAC waters… More on that, and the implications we feel for fall and winter, in the weeks and months ahead. 🙂

    July2015SST