Category Archives: MJO

Some Thoughts Into Late June…

The first (12) days of June are in the books and we’re running drier and warmer than average, month-to-date.  Officially, IND reports a temperature departure of 3 degrees above normal and a rainfall deficit approaching 1″.

As we look ahead, the pattern is one that seems to favor the most sustained hot dome (mean ridge) position across the 4 Corners region and Southwest states.  This morning’s European ensemble data shows this well:

Ck1DCVXWsAEGcde.jpg-largeThe teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts.  They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally.  (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).

On another note, there are different times through the year when the respected positive and negative phases of the teleconnections below have more of an impact on our weather, particularly during the fall through spring months.

JuneTellesLooking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).

1

gem-ens_T2maMean_us_7

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region.  Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.”  There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.

Finally, to close, perhaps the MJO shows the pattern best over the next couple weeks.  Best word to describe the MJO’s idea?  Transient.  :-)

Screen Shot 2016-06-13 at 3.27.03 PM

Screen Shot 2016-06-13 at 3.27.25 PM

Overwhelming Evidence On Mid Month Cold…

The step-down cold pattern early January is ongoing, but we’ve been clear with our thinking of even colder air invading around mid month (Jan 10th-20th time period). We wanted to show the data that continues to come in supporting this idea.

All three major teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) are aligning in a fashion that supports cold weather for our particular part of the country.

  
The MJO suggests mid month cold rolls right through the next several weeks, as noted here.

   
 
Ensemble data continues to support the cold idea.

   
    
 
While individual storm systems with wintry potential will have to be dealt with as they come, it’s very easy and clear to see the shift towards a downright wintry feel in the days and weeks ahead…

Winter Delayed, Not Denied: Updated Canadian; MJO

We’ll talk later today about the upcoming winter storm threat next weekend. While nothing is set in stone at this juncture, the pattern is aligning in a fashion for the region to at least be on the table for wintry potential early week 2. Again, more later.

The updated Canadian monthlies are in and remain firm on the idea of a lot of winter as we progress into mid and late winter.

February upper air pattern, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.
 

February temperature anamolies, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

  

March upper air pattern, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.

  
March temperature anomalies, courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.

  
The model has things finally breaking come April.

  
It should also be pointed out the model led the charge on forecasting a cold January. Other data is jumping onboard the cold train for January now. 

Additionally, the MJO forecast supports this cold look in the upcoming several weeks, rolling right through the cold phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.

  
  
At the end of the day, we still don’t have changes in the short term (step-down process to cold the first half of January before turning colder in a more sustained fashion for the second half of the month) or long term (warm open to winter flipping to cold for mid winter into early spring). 

When we look back at the 2015-2016 winter, it’s likely going to be known for being a case of delayed, but certainly not denied…  

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. :-)

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.55.51 AM

 

 

 

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.59.42 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.57.56 AM

Contradiction In Model World…

After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.

Here’s the plot line…

The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.

NegativePNA

Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.


BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.



As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.

Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

ECMF_phase_51m_small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Wet, Stormy, And Warm…

Those are the words to sum up the mid to long range. While we’ll deal with a brief Easter weekend cool down, the overwhelming signals in the mid to long range include both warm and wet descriptions. 

There’s strong support in the active wet times from the MJO swinging through phases 2-3.

   

 

Warmer than average times will also be the rule. Note the flip coming from week 1 to week 2.

   

 

And the warmer times don’t stop there. Long range data points to warmer than normal weather into mid and late April.

  

In the shorter term, we’re tracking a sun-filled couple days ahead before thunderstorms rumble into the picture Thursday. More details on your 7-day can be found below. 

  

Catching Up And Looking Ahead…

From the IndyWx.com family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support over the years! We appreciate it more than we can tell you.

After one of the coldest Thanksgivings’ on record (official IND high Thursday was 31°), Black Friday shoppers are having to bundle up against blustery and frosty air (don’t worry, we won’t start singing Christmas carols on here). It’s just a continuation of a brutally cold November to date.

IMG_1915.GIF

A byproduct of the cold pattern is also a drier than normal pattern, albeit slightly so after last weeks rains.

IMG_1914.GIF

Note Thanksgiving snow cover is impressive for the second straight year from a national perspective. See the clipper system that deposited snow to our west Thanksgiving eve and the nor’easter snow east.

IMG_1917.JPG

The upcoming 7-10 days will feature a milder pattern, but still with plenty of challenges. After a cold Friday, temperatures will moderate courtesy of a southwesterly air flow this weekend. Along with the milder air will come clouds and light rain/ drizzle.

IMG_1920.PNG

Colder air returns Monday and the combination of cold high pressure north and a boundary lurking just to our south will keep us on our toes this weekend for possible changes. Northward shifts happen in modeling from mid range to short range from time to time and we’ll keep a close eye on things.

IMG_1921.PNG

Towards day 7 a milder rain storm is on the models.

IMG_1922.PNG

It’s all part of a “topsy-turvy” pattern in the short to medium range as noted on the latest GEFS temperature anomalies. After the mild spike this weekend we chill early week.

IMG_1923.PNG

Longer range, we remain bullish of a heavy-hitter winter for the region. SSTs are aligning in classic form that feature colder and snowier than normal conditions across our region.

IMG_1916.JPG

The latest JAMSTEC agrees on a cold winter locally.

IMG_1918.GIF

IMG_1919.GIF

Note the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) rumbling into the colder phases of 7,8, and 1. This has sparked interest particularly mid and late December for an uptick in wintry potential…

IMG_1924.GIF

IMG_1926.PNG

IMG_1925.PNG