Category Archives: MJO

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.









combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.
















The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Wet, Stormy, And Warm…

Those are the words to sum up the mid to long range. While we’ll deal with a brief Easter weekend cool down, the overwhelming signals in the mid to long range include both warm and wet descriptions. 

There’s strong support in the active wet times from the MJO swinging through phases 2-3.



Warmer than average times will also be the rule. Note the flip coming from week 1 to week 2.



And the warmer times don’t stop there. Long range data points to warmer than normal weather into mid and late April.


In the shorter term, we’re tracking a sun-filled couple days ahead before thunderstorms rumble into the picture Thursday. More details on your 7-day can be found below. 


Catching Up And Looking Ahead…

From the family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support over the years! We appreciate it more than we can tell you.

After one of the coldest Thanksgivings’ on record (official IND high Thursday was 31°), Black Friday shoppers are having to bundle up against blustery and frosty air (don’t worry, we won’t start singing Christmas carols on here). It’s just a continuation of a brutally cold November to date.


A byproduct of the cold pattern is also a drier than normal pattern, albeit slightly so after last weeks rains.


Note Thanksgiving snow cover is impressive for the second straight year from a national perspective. See the clipper system that deposited snow to our west Thanksgiving eve and the nor’easter snow east.


The upcoming 7-10 days will feature a milder pattern, but still with plenty of challenges. After a cold Friday, temperatures will moderate courtesy of a southwesterly air flow this weekend. Along with the milder air will come clouds and light rain/ drizzle.


Colder air returns Monday and the combination of cold high pressure north and a boundary lurking just to our south will keep us on our toes this weekend for possible changes. Northward shifts happen in modeling from mid range to short range from time to time and we’ll keep a close eye on things.


Towards day 7 a milder rain storm is on the models.


It’s all part of a “topsy-turvy” pattern in the short to medium range as noted on the latest GEFS temperature anomalies. After the mild spike this weekend we chill early week.


Longer range, we remain bullish of a heavy-hitter winter for the region. SSTs are aligning in classic form that feature colder and snowier than normal conditions across our region.


The latest JAMSTEC agrees on a cold winter locally.



Note the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) rumbling into the colder phases of 7,8, and 1. This has sparked interest particularly mid and late December for an uptick in wintry potential…