• Category Archives Long Range Discussion
  • Bet On The Cold…

    During wholesale pattern transitions, operational data will struggle at times, including some wild run-to-run swings.  Earlier this week, the European wanted to put early next week in the lower 50s.  At the same time, the GFS suggested lower single digits.  Precisely, it was a difference of 46° between the two models for a high?!  🙂

    We note the teleconnections (in particular, the EPO) are aligning in a manner conducive for widespread cold.

    The GEFS might be a bit quick on dropping the arctic hammer, but the consistency of the model is impressive.  Meanwhile, the European (even it’s ensemble data) has been much less consistent and has really been struggling the past couple of winters, overall, as a whole.

    While we can argue as to just how cold it’ll get through the early part of February, the overwhelming message is that a prolonged colder than normal pattern will develop during this time period.

    Let’s also keep in mind that the initial cold onslaught is coming in the face of the MJO still rumbling through the warm phases.  We note the European is consistently having to correct towards a more “amped up” MJO- swinging into the cold phases as we approach mid-month.  And it’s mid-February that continues to have us concerned for the potential of truly nasty, severe cold.

    As for snow, it’ll come in this pattern.  Again, don’t get caught up in the operational output, but understand that the pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days favors numerous fast-moving snow systems.  While most of these will be light, we’ll have to keep a close eye on things as the potential exists for one of these waves to spin up a moderate event.

    As we look ahead to Week 2, the potential is there for a more widespread significant phased interior threat prior to the dumping of the bitterly cold air for mid-month.

    As it is, both the GEFS and EPS “mean” paint a bullish signal for piling snow up over the next couple weeks…


  • Transition Begins Back To A Prolonged, Sustained Wintry Pattern…

    The January “thaw” has taken hold the past 7-10 days.

    Despite the milder air over the past week, January, as a whole, is still running 4° below average at Indianapolis- a byproduct of just how frigid the first half of the month was.

    While the January thaw has been nice, times are changing and winter sure seems to be reloading for a very active second half.

    Initially, we think it’s the storminess that will be most impressive as a “fight” develops between resistance from southern ridging and a new mean trough pushing southeast.  The end result should be multiple snow and ice makers from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and northeast over the upcoming couple of weeks.

    Once we get a snowpack laid down, arctic highs oozing southeast will likely lead to bitterly cold air.  Recall our expectation for this pattern to yield at least (1) night of double-digit below zero lows, but it’s more towards mid-month that we think the severe cold takes hold.

    Teleconnections are lining up and in overall agreement of cold, wintry times returning.

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to rotate into the colder phase 8 as we rumble from early to mid February.  Given the amplitude of the MJO, it should continue to rumble right through the cold phases of 1,2, and 3.

    All of these moving pieces that lead up to extended periods of cold, wintry conditions are part of a bigger outcome low solar, easterly QBO winters deal up.  What we should experience with this setup is a 6-7 week period of wintry conditions, including times of severe cold.  It appears to be a snowier version of what we went through late-December through mid-January.  Hang in there, spring will come…eventually.


  • Potential On The Table For A Spectacular Period Of Winter Weather…

    Right out of the gate, our expectation is that the period Feb. 1st through March 6th will provide a memorable period of winter weather across central Indiana.  Included in our thinking is that between 15″-20″ of snow falls at IND during the period and at least (1) night features lows between 10° and 15° below zero.

    Before we get into a new period of wintry conditions, the region will enjoy an unseasonably pleasant stretch of weather, overall, over the upcoming week.  Temperatures will run much milder than average most days and precipitation events will remain relatively light and insignificant until we get to late next week.

    While we’ll deal with light rain Saturday morning, light snow Monday with upper energy and a transient shot of cold air, the primary message through next Wednesday is that our weather pattern will be rather benign considering we’re in the “heart” of winter.  In fact, our current 7-day reflects (3) days of highs of 50°, or greater.  That’s impressive for late January, and you have our full permission to enjoy every minute of it!  🙂

    As we transition into February, the ball begins rolling towards a new period of significant winter weather.  Initially, this will likely come in a “step down” fashion.  We forecast the initial jab of cold to arrive late next week and this will likely be accompanied by a period of rain switching over to a period of snow Thursday (accumulating snow is on the table with this event).  We note the GEFS sees the transition to cold as we enter the second month of the year.


    A combination of ingredients will come together to initially lead to a very active/ stormy period for the first half of February.  Within this initial couple weeks of the month, we expect an expanding snowpack to encompass the Mid West and Ohio Valley region.  While we can’t get specific on any one particular storm more than two weeks out, confidence is higher than normal on the pattern putting down greater than average amounts of the white stuff.  Snow enthusiasts, locally, have to be “salivating” over the resistance put up from the eastern ridge and the resurgent cold pressing into the Plains and Midwest.  A busy interior storm track seems like a good bet.

    It’s as we get into mid-February where we think significant, bitter cold will take the headline.  It’s a “feedback” of sorts between getting the snowpack laid down first and then having the MJO swing through the phases that favor late-winter arctic intrusions into the eastern portion of the country.  Unlike the past couple of winters, plenty of cold is building- and waiting at the gate to be unleashed southeast over the next several weeks.

    Finally, we also note the new European Weeklies remain bullish on a prolonged colder than average stretch of weather, accompanied by above normal precipitation, February into mid-March.  This is significant as run-to-run consistency has been noted and is backed up by long-term pattern techniques.

    We’ll revisit our call of 15″-20″ Feb. 1 through March 6th, including at least one night of lows between 10°-15° below, on March 7th…  In the meantime, we’ll be here with blog updates and videos through the active upcoming several weeks ahead.


  • Frigid Air Relaxes; What Awaits?

    2018 has opened on an absolutely frigid note.  Indianapolis is running an amazing 11° below average through mid-month.

    Eight mornings so far this winter have plunged below zero.  We’ll see if we can add another to that list this morning (IND is officially at 0° as we write this).

    52% of the country is covered in snow.  In fact, my old stomping grounds of Auburn, AL received 3″ of the white stuff overnight!

    If you’re sick and tired of the cold, wintry conditions relief is on the way.  We’ll turn “less cold” through late-week and above normal over the weekend (around 40° Saturday and into the upper 40s Sunday).

    A storm system will cut into the ridge Sunday with showers (image 1) followed by “backlash” snow showers and gusty winds Monday (image 2).

    Thereafter, models see another storm that will approach the region late next week.  Since cold air won’t be readily available, it’ll take the perfect track to get impactful wintry conditions from this next event.  We’ll monitor things closely next week.  With this near Day 10, models will continue to struggle with timing, track, and intensity over the next few days.

    As a whole, the second half of January should run milder than average.  However, as we all know, that doesn’t mean we won’t have wintry challenges to deal with.  The upcoming (10) days illustrates that nicely.  Looking ahead, we note the MJO is forecast to rumble through the warmer phases (especially if you’re reading this from the eastern regions of the country- where we expect warmth to be most anomalous into early February).

    Other teleconnections also support a relaxation of the cold, and warmer times, overall, with the exception of the Arctic Oscillation which remains negative through the period.

    It should be noted that the longer range data and overall trends, supported by our analogs, suggest winter roars back with authority as we get into February.  In fact, winter might not be so quick to leave this year either.  Data paints a cold, wintry open to meteorological spring this year, but we’re getting way ahead of ourselves.  It is only mid-January, after all.  🙂


  • Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…

    The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region.  Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average.  Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?

    Week 1:

    Week 2:

    Weeks 3-4:

    28 Day Mean:

    After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region.  This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall.  If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.

     


  • Colder Pattern Ahead To Close October; Open November?

    October, month-to-date, has been nothing short of a blow torch.  Officially, IND is running +9° through the 11th.

    In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits.  Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.

    The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts.  Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage.  The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.

    A more significant pattern change appears dialed up prior to Halloween and this is one that seems suited to lead to more prolonged and significant cold to wrap up the month and head on into November.  Notice the evolution of things from October 21st to the 25th, courtesy of the GEFS off the fantastic tropicaltidbits.com.  Other model data is in general agreement, leading to a rather high confidence level for this time period.

    It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later!  Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening.  Make it a great day!


  • The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

    High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

    High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

    As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

    Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

    Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

    As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

    What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.


  • JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

    • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
    • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
    • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

    Week 1:

    The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

    Week 2:

    The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

    Weeks 3-4

    While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.