• Category Archives JMA
  • Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

    The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

    Week 1
    Week 2
    Weeks 3-4

    Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

    • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
    • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

    Now…the CFSv2:

    Weeks 1-2
    Weeks 3-4

    Key take-aways:

    • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

    While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

    To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

  • JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • An unseasonably cool close to July
    • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
    • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

    Week 1:

    A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

    Week 2:

    The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.

  • JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
    • Seasonal pattern takes hold
    • Heat builds across the Northeast region

    Week 1:

    Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

    Week 2:

    It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

  • Thursday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning.  In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago.  Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!

    2.)  With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday.  Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning.  Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.

    3.)  While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week.  We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region.  Again, details still have to be determined.  While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.

    4.)  The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.

  • JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

    • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
    • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
    • Active NW flow regime to open July

    Week 1:  

    The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

    Week 2:  

    The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

    Weeks 3-4:  

    As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

  • JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

    • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
    • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
    • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

    Week 1:

    The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

    Week 2:

    The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

    Weeks 3-4

    While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

  • Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…

    The new JMA Weeklies paint a wet and active picture for Week 1, but begin to suggest we get into a milder, drier pattern as we push into the middle and latter portions of May…

    Week 1:

    The “mean” upper air pattern places coastal ridges with a cool trough settling into the central.  The end result will be a wet and active regime, locally, this weekend into next week.  Though we’ll see a “spike” in temperatures Sunday, the overall theme is a chilly one as we open the month of May.  In fact, temperatures will trend significantly cooler than average as we push into next week.

    Week 2:

    While it still looks chilly (compared to average), the JMA Weeklies suggest a “calmer” weather pattern moving in.  Wet anomalies are noted through the Rockies and Central, but a drier trend across the east, including the Ohio Valley.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Wet times remain across the Central and spread into more of the southern tier, as well.  Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are also forecast across the Southeast.  Budding warmth seems to develop over the West.

  • Word On The Weeklies…

    New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

    The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

    Week 1:

    Week 2:

    Weeks 3-4:

    The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…