• Category Archives Irma
  • Irma’s Remnants Limp Into The Region; Warming Up This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Showers and breezy conditions thanks to what’s left of Irma
    • Sunshine returns
    • Warmth builds

    Irma’s Remnants…What’s left of Irma will begin to impact the state today.  As promised, this won’t be a big deal, locally.  We’ll notice scattered to numerous showers lifting north through the day, continuing Wednesday.  Greatest overall rainfall coverage across central parts of the state should occur tonight into Wednesday.  We’ll also note east and northeast winds gusting over 20 MPH at times.  All in all, not a big weather event in the least for our region and our thoughts and prayers remain with our neighbors to our south beginning clean up/ rebuilding efforts.

    High pressure will return as we wrap up the work week and move into the weekend.  Additionally, a southerly air flow will help pump unseasonably warm conditions northward to encompass the Ohio Valley and Mid West.  Our next weather maker will be a cold front that will make a run at the region Monday.  Early indications are this front will “wash out” as it nears the region with only a few showers/ embedded thunder expected.

    Looking ahead, much more active times loom as we progress through late September and open October…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Monday Evening Rambles: Looking Towards October….

    Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.

    Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…

    European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.


  • Chamber Of Commerce Weather…

    Highlights:

    • Plentiful sunshine
    • Unseasonably cool
    • Watching Irma

    High Pressure Dominates…There’s no reason to get “wordy” with the short-term forecast, as high pressure will dominate our region.  This will result in plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and unseasonably cool, refreshing temperatures.  Find time to spend the weekend outside!

    All eyes will most certainly be on dangerous Hurricane Irma as she begins to impact the Florida peninsula as early as Saturday.  Our thoughts and prayers are with all in Irma’s path, including interior portions of the southeast that will also deal with hurricane conditions late in the weekend into early next week.  Here on the home front, we still only expect minimal impacts from Irma.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty easterly breeze late Monday into Tuesday.  Additionally, showers are possible (especially across the southern half of the state) Tuesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Thursday Afternoon: Quick Word On Irma…

    As of this update (4p Thursday), Irma remains a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH winds, moving WNW at 16 MPH.  Some fluctuations in strength are likely over the next couple of days, but Irma will remain a category 4-5 hurricane over the next couple of days.

    Interests along the Florida peninsula (impacts beginning late Friday night-Saturday) all the way up the coast to include GA (beginning late Saturday-Sunday) and the Carolinas (beginning Sunday evening-Monday morning) should remain abreast of the latest developments with Irma.  It should also be noted that this won’t just be a coastal problem.  In fact, areas well inland, including the southern Appalachians, can expect significant impacts from Irma as she races north early next week.  It’s a particularly concerning scenario when you combine the expected inland track of Irma with the orientation of the NC mountains.  Flooding and damaging winds are a good bet given current data taking Irma over the high country (keep in mind Irma’s remnants are likely to track over mountains exceeding 6k feet).  The topography will not only result in enhanced rainfall from orographic lift, but result in tropical storm and low-end hurricane force wind gusts.

    We’ve also had several questions with respect to Irma potentially impacting central Indiana.  As of now, we still forecast an increasingly gusty easterly wind Monday afternoon and evening followed by increasing clouds and showers lifting from southeast to northwest Monday night.  Breezy conditions and showers remain in the forecast Tuesday, especially for the southern half of the state as Irma’s remnants track into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region.  While this is still a fluid situation, as of now we don’t anticipate big problems with either wind or rain across central Indiana.  Stay tuned.


  • All Eyes On Irma…

    Highlights:

    • Unseasonably cool weather continues
    • All eyes on Irma
    • Impacts TBD, locally

    Unseasonably Cool; Irma Dominates Headlines…Upper level energy did, indeed, spark a couple of showers (even some small hail was reported in stronger showers) Wednesday evening.  Here at IndyWx.com HQ, we picked up a quick half inch of much needed rainfall!  While a couple of showers are possible once again this afternoon, these will be primarily confined to northern portions of the state.  Otherwise, the balance of the upcoming forecast period is easy through the weekend: dry with reinforcing cool air arriving over the weekend.

    Hurricane Irma will continue to dominate the headlines and will require our focus, locally, for potential impacts early next week.  While we’ve built rain into our forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, it’s crucial to note this is an incredibly tough forecast and will require a great deal of fine tuning as we move forward.  With that said, a blend of latest data and upper air analysis does suggest portions of the region (particularly eastern areas of the state) do stand a chance to get in on the action of Irma’s remnants Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  Otherwise, breezy easterly winds are expected for the entire region beginning Monday evening.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze things.  Thoughts and prayers are certainly with residents and family along the Southeast coast from southern FL to the Carolinas, including the southern Appalachian region.  Speaking of, it should be noted Irma’s impacts will stretch well inland.  Irma is forecast to remain a major hurricane wherever she comes ashore (window of opportunity for landfall up from the southern tip of FL all the way up to the Carolina coastline) and her forward speed into the southern Appalachians will combine with the rugged terrain and high elevations to create significant problems inland given the most up-to-date forecast track.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″ (highly dependent on where Irma’s remnants track)


  • Mid-October Weather…

    Highlights:

    • Widely scattered storms this afternoon
    • Well below average temperatures
    • Overall dry pattern continues

    Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air).  Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow.  Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening.  Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.

    There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period.  Dry weather will dominate.  Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period.  We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.

    Tropics:  Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so.  This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.”  Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.

    Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida.  Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″


  • Feeling Like Fall…

    Highlights:

    • Increasing sunshine
    • Scattered showers Wednesday
    • Cooler than average

    More Like October Than September…A cold front moved through the region last night.  As expected, there were “haves and have nots” with the frontal passage, including some rainfall totals over 2″ (especially north and east of the city) while other neighborhoods barely picked up a tenth of an inch.

    Northwest winds are blowing now and ushering in much cooler temperatures that will be with us through the forecast period.  In fact, temperatures will turn so cool it’ll feel more like October (especially Wednesday and Thursday) than September.  Additionally, upper level energy will help create scattered showers Wednesday (not a big deal).

    Dry conditions will return as we wrap up the work week and head into early next week.  Reinforcing cool air will arrive this weekend and we’ll also note a gusty easterly wind at times, thanks to the circulation between a high off to our northeast and Irma pushing north across the southeast region.

    Tropics:  Speaking of Irma, she continues to strengthen this morning and very near category 5 status.  Preparations should be underway across the Florida peninsula now.  We still have time to watch things unfold, but it’s looking increasingly likely that southern Florida will begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Friday, followed by a potential landfalling major hurricane over the weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″


  • VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…

    The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening.  Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).

    MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week.  Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.