• Category Archives Independence Day
  • Monday Morning Rambles…

    An early look at the radar this morning shows a couple of lone storms near Decatur and Blufton. These are moving off to the east. 

    While we’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered thunderstorm today and Independence Day, the majority of both days will remain rain-free. 

    A wave of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday and this will result in an uptick in storm coverage. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. While some localized totals could be higher, we think widespread rains of 1″-1.5″ is a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday. 

    High pressure will build in over the weekend and aid in a drier and cooler theme.

    Lows will return to the 50s across central Indiana Sunday morning and refreshing (upper 50s at night and upper 70s to lower 80s during the day) air will remain with us into early next week. 


  • Mainly Dry Weekend; Stormy Weather Returns Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Mostly dry this weekend
    • Unsettled next week
    • Locally heavy rain

    Classic Summertime Weather…While we’ll deal with some clouds from time to time today, most of the region will remain rain-free.  Best chances of seeing a passing shower will be across the southern half of the state.  Sunday will feature partly cloudy and seasonable conditions.  It’ll be a great day to be outdoors!

    Unsettled conditions will return next week, including Independence Day.  Storm coverage will be most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours in this “rinse and repeat” pattern through late week.  That said, each day will offer up many more dry hours than stormy.  Just have a “plan B” in mind when those passing storms arrive.

    Looking ahead, we may inject a drier and slightly cooler regime next weekend…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  1.50″ – 2.00″


  • Thursday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning.  In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago.  Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!

    2.)  With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday.  Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning.  Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.

    3.)  While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week.  We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region.  Again, details still have to be determined.  While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.

    4.)  The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.


  • Muggy Air (And Storm Chances) Returns…

    Highlights:

    • One more pleasant day
    • Humidity increases
    • Storm chances return

    Unsettled Weather Looms…We’ve got one more pleasant day to enjoy, but take advantage of it as changes for a more tropical-feel loom.  With that increasingly warm and moist air, we’ll also see an increase in showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the week.  While it won’t rain the entire time, a couple rounds of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible during the Thursday afternoon-Friday period.

    We think we return to drier conditions late weekend into Monday, but this drier theme likely won’t hold through the holiday period.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms return by Independence Day.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ -1.50″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Unseasonably Cool; Heavy Rains…

    Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 10.14.18 AMHighlights:

    • Heavy rain
    • Unseasonably cool
    • Turning warmer
    • Active, stormy time later in the week

    Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning.  Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene.  Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning.  The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary.  In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today.  Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s.  Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).

    Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening.  That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.

    We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime.  The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)


  • Unseasonably Cool; The Calm Before The Storm…

    The morning is off to a dry and unseasonably cool start, including filtered sunshine.  Temperatures are running 15-20 degrees below normal across the state, with many central IN neighborhoods currently in the lower to middle 50s.

    t0Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry.  We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.

    Screen Shot 2016-07-02 at 7.44.09 AMRain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.

    hires_ref_indy_31Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts.  Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
    1Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives.  As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!

    Sunday will also be a chilly day for the time of the year as temperatures north of I-70 likely remain in the 60s most of the day.

    We’ll have a video update posted later this evening with fresh thoughts from the 12z model suite.


  • Enjoy The Dry Time While We Have It…

    Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 6.18.41 PMHighlights:

    • Pleasant air in the short-term
    • Storm chances Friday
    • Widespread soaker

    Looking Increasingly Wet For The Holiday Weekend…High pressure will supply continued dry times Thursday, but clouds will increase during the evening and give way to scattered showers and embedded thunder Friday. This doesn’t look like a huge deal, but don’t be surprised by rain and/ or a clap of thunder to close the work week.  That said, there will be more dry time than wet Friday.

    As we rumble into the long Independence Day weekend, confidence continues to increase for a widespread soaking rain to develop.  Thankfully, Saturday still looks mostly dry, but we think clouds will be on the increase late in the day, followed by rain overspreading the region from west to east as Sunday afternoon approaches.  Widespread rain should continue into Monday.  We still have questions on timing and precise placement of heaviest rains (2″+ totals), but it’s safe to say most, if not all, of the region can expect a long-duration rain event developing Sunday.  Stay tuned.  It’ll also be cool.  Areas where heaviest rains set up Sunday likely won’t climb out of the 60s.

    Drier air will return late Monday into the middle of next week, but we caution that another wet weather maker appears to have eye on the region beginning next Thursday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″


  • Long Independence Day Weekend Taking A Wet Turn…

    A cold front will slide through central IN Friday, but heavy rain and widespread storms aren’t expected as the front slides through the region. Instead, we’ll keep mention of scattered showers before drier air returns Saturday (with lots of sunshine).

    For the purpose of this post, we’re more focused on the all-important Sunday-Monday forecast. Sunday will likely dawn dry, but trends are for wetter times late Sunday into Monday.  A slow moving area of low pressure is forecast to track out of the central Plains Sunday into the Ohio Valley Monday. Copious moisture will be affiliated with this area of low pressure, including a severe threat to the south of the storm track.  Heavy rainfall will fall along and north of the track of the low.  While we still have a couple days to fine tune things, it’s becoming increasingly likely that portions of the forecast area (especially southern and central areas) are impacted by heavy rain later Sunday into Monday.

    4

    5

    6We note ensemble support, as well.

    3Rain totals will likely be hefty for some, including widespread 2″+ totals where the axis of heaviest rain falls.

    1

    2Stay tuned as we continue to look over data and update the important Independence Day weekend forecast.