• Category Archives HRRR
  • Wednesday Morning Weather Notebook…

    1.)  Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.

    CODNEXLAB-1km-C_Illinois-rad-ani24-201608241115-100-100-022.)  HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.

    13.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday.  We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week.  That said, “briefly” is the key word.  Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.

    DryMoist4.)  Attention next week will shift to the tropics.  There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week.  Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.

    Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.

    Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…

    AL99_current


  • Still Eyeing An Evening Severe Threat…

    We’re still focused on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

      

    After morning showers move out of the region we should get into a drier time of things late morning into the early afternoon hours. There are questions concerning if we can work some sunshine into the picture this afternoon. If we do, a significant severe event will likely unfold (including all modes).  Conversely, if we remain with a thick cloud deck then severe chances will diminish. 

    We still bracket 4p-9p for the potential of severe weather, locally.

      
      
      
    We’ll turn drier and much cooler later tonight once the cold front passes. Highs Friday will top out in the lower to middle 50s and only in the 40s to around 50 over the weekend. 

    Stay weather aware this afternoon! 


  • Snowy Morning Commute…

    Our high resolution data concentrates a period of moderate to heavy snow bracketed between 5a-8a Tuesday. * Localized intense bands of snow will likely be embedded and may lead to near whiteout conditions at times. 

       
     
    You’ll want to allow plenty of extra time to reach work or school later this morning as snow will likely be falling at a good clip across central IN.

    Temperatures will plummet this afternoon. Winds will also increase late morning into the afternoon and gust upwards of 40 MPH. Blowing and drifting will be a concern.

    No changes to our thinking of 1″-3″ across the area before all is said and done. 


  • Periods Of Heavy Rain…

    Saturday will dawn dry across the region, but that will quickly begin to change as morning progresses into afternoon. Moisture is streaming north and a “wavy” frontal system will remain draped across our region through the weekend into early next week before a surface low finally sweeps a cold front through here Monday evening.

    Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows rain expanding in coverage this afternoon.

      
    Periods of heavy rain will fall across the region between this afternoon and Monday. 

       
       
    We note precipitable water reaches in excess of 1.5″ and adds to our confidence of heavy rain coming. Note also the true GOM connection with this storm system.

      
    Models agree on heavy to excessive rains falling with widespread storm totals between 3″-5″.

       
       
    The storm system will finally begin to pull away Monday night, leaving drier, breezy, and cooler air in it’s wake. 

      
    The true push of cold air awaits until the end of the week.

    Your full 7-day outlook can be found here.


  • Where We Stand…

    Some are beginning to grow tired of the seemingly unending warmth and lack of snow, particularly with an above normal stretch of weather coming that includes the Christmas holiday (though not nearly as warm as the European suggested as soon as only a few days ago).

    Month-to-date, December has been a warmer than normal month for most of the country. Source: Weatherbell.com
    Month-to-date, December has been a warmer than normal month for most of the country. Source: Weatherbell.com

    Our winter outlook stated we thought we’d get off to a warmer than normal start, but we were also very clear in stating we thought a rather marked shift to more sustained wintry conditions loomed for mid and late winter.  That period is drawing closer by the day and it’s time to “put up or shut up.”  By “mid winter” we mean mid January.  Yes, that means three weeks out.  Without holding back any punches, we’re fully expecting a colder than average period developing by then (and with staying power), along with plenty of opportunities for wintry precipitation.

    You can read our full winter outlook (published in October) here.

    The reasoning for our thinking has been outlined in previous posts and in our winter outlook, but, in short, it’s built on the idea of a weakening El Nino and a mean winter upper air pattern that includes W NA ridging (positive PNA regime).  Later in the season, a more sustained negative AO and NAO should establish itself that could carry the wintry regime into meteorological spring.

    Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
    Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

    We think we begin to progress into a “step down” process to the pattern explained above through the early stages of January, and the ensemble data is beginning to support this.

    GFS ensembles for early January. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    GFS ensembles for early January. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

    The modeled W NA ridging is a far cry from what we’ve been dealing with over the past month.

    Now we caution that the initial step down to a more sustained wintry pattern won’t occur overnight.  We label it “step down” for a reason.  All the while, it’s a start in shifting away from the anomalous warmth we’ve been dealing with through the month of December.  Initially, cold air will only be marginal, but as things align into the mid/ late winter pattern and we expand snow cover, arctic air will grow in a more widespread fashion.  Something else we’ll begin to have to keep a close eye on?  A potentially active NW flow that features several clippers plenty capable of producing accumulating snow.  We note central-based Ninos are notorious for the clipper parade during the mid and late winter stretch.

    In the shorter term, a rather unsettled Christmas week looms.  Modeling will continue to “sure up” the handling of a rather complex storm system after Christmas, as well.  We note runs that have pumped out copious rain numbers and others that suggest wintry precipitation may fall as the cold upper low ejects northeast.  We’ll continue to monitor.

    In the meantime, gear up for a rather wet Monday.  We think one half inch is a good bet across the area, with locally heavier totals.  Our updated 7-day in the morning will be a rather busy one.  Talk with you in the AM!

    hrrr_t_precip_indy_16


  • Chilly Now; Continuing To Keep A Close Eye On Sunday…

    Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24 temperature change (image 1) and the departure from normal (image 2). 

       
     

    A storm system to our west is delivering more high mountain snow to CO and also responsible for tornadoes in TX. This system will weaken dramatically over the next 12-24 hours. Dry air will really “eat away” at the more significant precipitation and we’ll maintain mention of light rain in your Wednesday forecast (forecast radar at 12-noon is below) before it’s back to sunshine Thursday!

      
    Friday and Saturday will be fantastic days- slowly moderating temperatures and lots of sunshine! 

    Attention turns to Sunday and as of now we still don’t have any changes to our forecast. There will be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but it continues to look like best rain and storm chances will remain off to our west most, if not all, of Sunday. Highs will be around 80°. 

    Better chances of scattered storms appear to arrive Monday. At this juncture it really doesn’t look like a bad Memorial Day weekend is shaping up in the least. 

       
       


  • A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

    Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 8.51.04 PMHighlights:

    • Much cooler and drier through Thursday
    • Moisture increases this weekend
    • Stormy early next week

    A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this.  That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return.  High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend.  Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

    hrrr_t2m_indy_14A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning.  Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_9High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_16A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley.  Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

    cmc_total_precip_indy_33After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week.  Localized torrential downpours are likely.  Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.