• Category Archives Heavy Rain
  • Catching Up On A “Crisp” August Evening…

    One sure would be hard-pressed to find an August evening that is more fall-like than today.  Heck, a check of temperatures even at the 3 o’clock hour across central IN revealed levels more typical of early October.  – Your’s truly isn’t complaining. 😉  As I write this post just before 10p Friday evening, I’m fireside with a temperature in the upper 50s in Whitestown.  Call me crazy, but I’ll take it- even if it is a couple months early!

    All across the Midwest temperatures are running 10° to 15° below normal at the 9p hour.

    As we look ahead, Saturday is certainly the pick of the weekend.  Mixed clouds and sun will be with us for the balance of the day before we turn increasingly overcast late.  While temperatures will remain significantly below normal, it’ll be a very refreshing day and feel more like early-September (mid-upper 70s).

    As mentioned, clouds will increase, lower, and thicken Saturday evening and widespread rain will follow.  This is all in association with our next approaching storm system that promises to result in a rather damp and unseasonably cool second half of the weekend.  Forecast radar timestamps Sunday morning into the afternoon show the overall widespread coverage of rain showers and embedded thunder.  We suggest indoor weekend plans Sunday.

    Unsettled weather will continue into early Monday across the state.  By the time all is said and done, rainfall totals of 1″-1.5″ can be expected, including locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms develop.  Additionally, with the clouds and wet weather Sunday, temperatures will likely remain in the 60s most of the day.

    As we push into the new work week, drier air will regain control of our region and high pressure should provide a stretch of pleasant (unseasonably cool) conditions through midweek.

    Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the second half of next week as our next storm system approaches.  While we’ll moderate back to seasonal levels late-week, data suggests another blast of refreshing air will blow into town next weekend.  It’s far too early to signal “summer over,” but the early blasts of fall-like air do have to “raise an eyebrow” for what autumn may provide the region.  We’re in the camp of believing central IN is in position for earlier than normal frost risks…  Much more on that later.

    Reinforcing cool air establishes itself in the 8-10 day period.


  • Heavy Rain And Storms Thursday; Phenomenal Weekend Ahead…

    Highlights:

    • Turning more humid this afternoon
    • Heavy rain Thursday
    • Cooler and drier weekend ahead

    Heavy Rain Tomorrow…Wednesday is getting off to a pleasant and beautiful start across the Hoosier state.  Sunshine will be with us throughout the day, but our pleasant air mass that we’re awaking to will grow increasingly moist this afternoon and evening.  Our next storm system approaches late tonight and will help push widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state early Thursday morning.  With such high water content in our air mass, expect periods of heavy rain across the region.  Localized flooding will result.

    The trade off to the wet and stormy Thursday will be an incredible weekend.  Despite a few lingering showers Friday, we’ll notice a dramatic drop in humidity Friday night and this will set the stage for a refreshing last weekend of July.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough both Saturday and Sunday mornings to perhaps trigger a feel of early autumn for some.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected along with unseasonably low dew points with a northeasterly flow in place.

    Temperatures and moisture levels will slowly increase as we get into early next week.  With the increasing humidity, expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 3.00″


  • Periods Of Storms Interrupt An Otherwise Hot, Humid Regime…

    Highlights:

    • Periods of storms
    • Heat and humidity makes things uncomfortable
    • Drier early next week

    Mother Nature Calls…Many awoke early this morning as a complex of thunderstorms rumbled southeast into central Indiana.  Some local rain gauges are already registering 2″+ across the region.  Eventually, we think clouds will thin enough later today to allow temperatures to zoom close to 90°.  Factor in the moisture-rich nature of our air mass and heat indices will approach 105° later this afternoon.

    We’ll keep mention of scattered storms this evening and while most of the daytime Saturday looks dry, we’ll have to keep a close eye on Saturday night as models try to deliver another round of storms into central Indiana.  Ingredients will be in place for the potential of severe thunderstorms Saturday night, with damaging winds being the biggest concern from a severe perspective.

    A frontal boundary will push south and we’ll finally begin to see humidity levels fall as we close the weekend and open next week.  It’ll feel very refreshing during the Monday-Tuesday stretch.

    Heat, humidity, and storm chances return by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1″ – 3″


  • Afternoon And Evening Rumbles…

    Highlights:

    • T-storms arrive this afternoon
    • Heating up this week
    • Stormy periods late-week

    Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day!  The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening.  One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).

    As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week.  Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel.  Prepare to sweat.

    Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch.  Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Another Stormy Day, But Relief Is Coming…

    Highlights:

    • Storms increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
    • More refreshing air arrives for the weekend
    • Quiet start to next week

    Stormy Afternoon On Deck…A frontal boundary will slip into the state today and slowly push south over the next 24 hours, eventually making it out of the state Friday.  The combination of this trigger (front) along with a genuinely “soupy” air mass (precipitable water values will be north of 2″ and dew points will remain in the low-mid 70s) will result in increasing storm coverage this afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of the storms may become severe and it also won’t take much for flash flooding to develop where storms train.  In some cases, these storms will dump rainfall rates of 2″-3″/ hour.  From a severe stand point, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

    Thankfully, we’ll clear things out in time for the upcoming weekend.  With the exception of a few morning thunderstorms downstate Friday, the trend will be a drier one and that will continue into Saturday.  Along with the drier air, we’ll also note slightly cooler temperatures.  It’ll feel much more refreshing than the past couple days.

    A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and this boundary could kick-up a scattered thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon-evening before we return to dry times Monday and Tuesday.  Moisture (and heat) will return by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1″-2″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Another Stormy Day…

    Highlights:

    • Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
    • Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
    • Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel

    Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears.  This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today.  With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas.  A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.

    While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.

    A surface front will settle south Friday.  Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday.  Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.

    Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day.  This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)

     


  • Active Times This Week…

    The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley.  Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms.  The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight.  Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.

    A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels.  Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel.  Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times.  With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.

    Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend.  Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.

    When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.