• Category Archives Heavy Rain
  • Wet Weekend Gives Way To A Drier Open To The New Week…

    Today will feature a continuation of gloomy conditions, including areas of fog and drizzle- especially this morning.

    Thankfully, most of central Indiana will get a break from significant rainfall through the majority of our Friday, but a new batch of steady to occasionally heavy rain will build in overnight into the day Saturday.

    Forecast radar 2a Saturday.
    Forecast radar 10a Saturday.

    We’ll add thunderstorms into the forecast Saturday night into the predawn hours Sunday as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and sweeps a cold front through the state Sunday morning.  A couple of these storms could become strong across central Indiana and even severe downstate.  As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of Indiana in a “marginal” risk of severe during this time period.  We’ll keep a close eye on models over the next 24 hours as it’s possible this marginal and slight risk may need to be expanded further north.

    Forecast radar 7p Saturday.
    Forecast radar 1a Sunday.

    Thankfully, drier air will quickly sweep into the state Sunday afternoon and this should allow sunshine to return as we close the weekend.  Beforehand, additional rainfall of 1″ to 2″ will be widespread across central Indiana with locally heavier totals.

    High pressure will settle overhead to open the new work week, allowing for a quieter time of things before a new active period develops by the middle of the week…


  • Heavy Rain, Thunder, And Colder For The 1st Half Of March…

    While “nuisance” type showers are possible through the daytime hours, most of Thursday will provide a break from significant rainfall.  Unfortunately, additional periods of moderate to heavy rain will return as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  In particular, we’re targeting the following for additional heavy rainfall:

    • Overnight Thursday into Friday morning
    • Overnight Friday into Saturday morning
    • Saturday afternoon/ evening

    Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.

    All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.

    We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.

    Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March.  We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.

    Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March.  With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold.  Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.

    While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month.  Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events.  In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…

    Colder times return for the first half of March.


  • Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…

    The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth.  Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.

    Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.

    Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.

    Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.

    Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.

    As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area.  By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing.  As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.  With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.

    After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend.  At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.

    By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.

     


  • Saturday Morning Rambles: Periods Of Heavy Rain Early Next Week…

    I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening.  Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.

    II.  We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.

    A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday.  This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region.  Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).

    While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.

    Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots.  Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.

    III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March.  That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…


  • Wednesday Morning Notebook: Thursday Storm Threat; Heavy Rain Next Week…

    I. Scattered light showers will impact the southern half of the state today, but these won’t be a big deal and more of just a nuisance for our Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures will remain in the 40s for most of the afternoon before rising overnight.

    Forecast radar today at 3p shows scattered light showers around.

    II. A cold front will drop in Thursday evening and this will deliver more widespread heavier rainfall and even a couple of thunderstorms Thursday night.  In general, we expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain to fall.

    III. We’ll turn briefly colder to close the work week. A couple of light snow showers are possible Friday morning and a wave of low pressure will “try” to push moisture into the cold air Saturday.  As of now, we remain unimpressed with the prospect of impactful wintry weather Saturday, but have included the potential of wet snow in our Saturday forecast.  Precipitation appears to be very light.  Nonetheless, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

    IV. The pattern continues to scream and warm and wet next week as a big ole southeast ridge remains in place.  This will direct the steering current into the TN and OH Valley regions and multiple waves of rain, occasionally heavy, will result beginning early next week and continuing into the middle and latter portions of the week.  Widespread 2″ to 3″ totals with locally heavier amounts seems to be a good bet next week.

    We note a true Gulf connection and precipitable water values that will exceed 300% of normal at times.  Parts of the Ohio Valley will deal with flooding, but it’s premature to get more specific than that from this distance.  If you live near waterways, plan to keep a close eye on future updates and forecasts.

    V. We note data continues to suggest a colder period looms as we close out the month of February and head into March. Note how the GEFS and EPS continues to tank the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  Winter’s not over, not by a long shot…


  • Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Clouds more bark than bite today
    • Stormy setup Sunday
    • Trending colder next week

    All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

    Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

    All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″