• Category Archives Harvey
  • Pleasant Labor Day Weekend; Another Cool Shot Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Dry Labor Day weekend
    • Cold front arrives early Tuesday
    • Another cool shot next week

    Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday.  Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches.  We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east.  Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday.  We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning.  Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.

    A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday.  Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer.  That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state).  Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region.  With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.

    Tropics:  Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week.  It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely.  In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″


  • Grab The Jacket!

    Highlights:

    • Harvey’s remnants
    • Windy and October-like
    • Improving weather for Labor Day weekend
    • Another blast of cool air next week

    Is It The First Of September Or October?!  Harvey’s remnants will track northeast along the Ohio River (tonight) and into the central Appalachians (Saturday).  The combination of a tight pressure gradient between the circulation around what’s left of Harvey and an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in strong and gusty easterly winds to wrap up the work week.  Factor in temperatures that will run close to 20° below normal and jackets will be required today!  We don’t have any changes in regards to our rainfall forecast: heaviest and steadiest rain will remain downstate.  Lighter showers will begin to overspread central parts of the state, including Indianapolis, later this evening.

    Early showers will pull off to the east Saturday and we should end the day with increasing sunshine.  Those improvements will continue Sunday into Labor Day with dry conditions.

    A cold front will approach early next week and result in an increasingly windy regime Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  The front will sweep through the state Tuesday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms followed by another shot of unseasonably cool air by the middle of next week.  Lingering upper level energy will result in spotty showers Wednesday with the cooler conditions.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″


  • Pleasant Now; Very Cool, Wet (For Some), And Windy Close To The Week…

    Highlights:

    • Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
    • Harvey’s remnants impact the region
    • Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day

    Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather.  Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.

    Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants.  The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds.  While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state.  Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely).  The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday.  Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready.

    Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.

    We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself.  Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday.  Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week.  Get set for an October-like feel…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″


  • Tuesday Morning Rambles…

    I.)  Overnight rain and storms impacted central Indiana during the overnight.  Some of the slow moving storms dumped a quick 2″ of rain in isolated areas, but most ended up accumulating 0.5″-1″.  Additional isolated to widely scattered storm activity is possible today, but many more dry hours than stormy can be expected.

    II.)  A “backdoor” cold front will drop south through the state Thursday and while an isolated storm is possible as the front slips through the area, the bigger deal with be the cooler and breezy finish to the work week (mid-50s for lows Friday morning and highs in the lower-middle 70s).

    III.)  We continue to monitor data for the potential of Harvey’s remnants to impact the region this weekend.  At this time, the greatest risk of heavy rain appears to lie across southern portions of the state, but we’ll include rain in our weekend forecast as far north as central Indiana.  There will be a very sharp cutoff between no rain at all and heavy amounts (2″+), and it appears this dividing line will setup shop across the heart of the state.  Due to Harvey’s forward motion, long lasting heavy rains aren’t anticipated, locally.

    IV.)  The coolest air since last spring is poised to plunge into the region by the early and middle portions of next week.  A strong cold front will push in Labor Day night and result in scattered showers and thunderstorms before an abrupt wind shift to the north.  Things will be feeling more like October rather than September later next week (lows in the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s).


  • Wet Start To The Work Week; Keeping A Close Eye On Harvey…

    Highlights:

    • Wet open to the work week
    • Late week backdoor cold front
    • Where will Harvey’s remnants track?

    More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months.  Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants.  It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.

    Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley.  While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet.  Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems.  A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday.  A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.

    Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast.  There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east.  We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley.  With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

    Highlights:

    • Rain and storm chances increase
    • Late week cold front
    • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

    Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

    Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

    A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

    Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Pleasant Close To The Week; Harvey Questions…

    Highlights:

    • Dry and unseasonably cool close to the week
    • Shower chances return
    • Watching Harvey

    Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure.  This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.

    A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley.  Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week.  Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.

    Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so.  Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective.  He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today.  It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough.  Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week.  Stay tuned.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Quick Thursday Morning Comment…

    Good morning, friends!  Temperatures this morning are in the lower 50s for many across central Indiana as our “hint” of fall continues to wrap up the month of August.  I wanted to touch base briefly this morning as it’s been a very busy week, and a more extensive post will hit late today.

    Some items we’re watching in the days and weeks ahead:

    I. Harvey- the environment is one that should result in strengthening today and tomorrow (and possible rapid intensification at that).  Folks who live along the TX coast or have interests in the region should prepare now.  In addition to flooding concerns, wind and surge is also now a concern as intensification gets underway.  We have a long, long way to go in determining exactly where Harvey finds his “way out.”  Portions of the Ohio Valley are certainly on the table for potential rain impacts late next week as another trough  digs in and brings what’s left of Harvey northeast.

    II.  JMA Weeklies-  new JMA Weeklies are in and they paint an unseasonably cool pattern, locally, into mid and late September.  It’s hard to disagree with this as it settles the mean trough position into the Mid West, with the mean ridge position located across the Northwest region.  There’s also some reflection of a weaker ridge across the Northeast.  In short, it’s a pattern that favors blasts of early fall-like air to continue drilling south into the region as we move into September.

    Much more later today!  Make it a good one, friends!