• Category Archives Harvest’16
  • One More Warm Day; T-storm Chances Tonight…

    screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-7-35-00-amThe 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available.

    Highlights:

    • Unseasonably warm Wednesday
    • T-storms tonight
    • Cooler close to the work week

    Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight…The majority of today will be dry (and warm), but we do note some of the high resolution model data suggest we deal with an initial round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening (in the 4p-7p time frame).  This would be in advance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday.

    Cooler air will flow into the region to wrap up the work week and dry conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend.  We note patchy frost potential Saturday morning away from the city.

    Our next storm system will approach early next week.  From this distance, Election Day looks mostly dry through the daytime hours,  but shower chances will begin to increase by evening.

    Longer term, model data continues to suggest we’re in line for a mid-month pattern change to cooler conditions.  While this will initially be a “step-down” (back and forth) process, the potential is on the table for a downright wintry pattern to develop by late month.  We note the GEFS (GFS ensembles) keying in on this (images courtesy of weatherbell):

    Days 1-5

    1

    Days 6-10

    2

    Days 10-15

    3

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Weather Certainly More Of A Treat Than A Trick…

    screen-shot-2016-10-31-at-7-26-50-amThe 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available.

    Highlights:

    • Great trick-or-treat weather in store this evening
    • Near record warmth Tuesday-Wednesday
    • Cooler to close the week

    Pleasant Halloween Weather…Recent Halloweens have produced accumulating snow, heavy rain, and storms.  Thankfully, today will be much more pleasant and feature mostly cloudy skies and pleasant temperatures.

    Speaking of temperatures, they’ll get a big boost Tuesday and Wednesday (both days will feature near record highs).  A breezy SW wind will be in play and clouds will increase Wednesday, eventually giving way to showers Wednesday night.  Rain will continue Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the region.  Cooler, drier air will move in as we close the work week.

    Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday will be dry and pleasant.  Sunday is a bit of a question mark.  The European model is suggesting a reinforcing push of cooler air will ooze into the area, while the GFS is less impressed.  We’ll lean our forecast more towards the European for now.  Regardless, Sunday will be a dry day.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″


  • Another Active Week…

    screen-shot-2016-10-23-at-8-44-34-pmHighlights:

    • Cool open to the work week
    • Mid and late week fast-moving storm systems
    • Weekend timing questions

    Fall Feel To Open The Week…A dry frontal boundary will pass through central IN late tonight.  Our winds will shift to the NW after midnight and help drive in a cooler air mass to open up the new work week.  Despite lots of sunshine, temperatures will be running below average to open the work week.

    A fast-moving storm system will scoot through the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday.  This will help serve to strengthen our winds (SW direction) along with create a chance of scattered showers Wednesday evening.  Another pop of unseasonably cool air will blow into town Thursday.

    Yet another storm system will press through the region as we get set to head into the weekend. Rainfall totals don’t look particularly impressive, but we’ll lean more towards the Friday night/ Saturday morning storm system as being the better rain-maker of the (2) systems this week.  Cooler air will flow in behind the storm system for the weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Much Cooler Feel; Increasing Weekend Sunshine…

    screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-7-40-05-amHighlights:

    • “Raw” weather today
    • Increasing weekend sunshine
    • Patchy frost Saturday morning

    Wet And Chilly Today…An area of low pressure will track northeast along the Ohio River, into the interior portions of the Northeast between now and Friday.  Additionally, a cold front will continue to press southeast today.  The combination of these ingredients will equal a wet, raw, and breezy day across central IN.  (Definitely NOT a chamber of commerce day).  Temperatures will remain nearly steady through the daytime hours before sliding off relatively quickly tonight.

    We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the weekend with increasing sunshine, but the coolest air of the fall season thus far.  Temperatures will grow chilly enough Saturday morning to present a patchy frost threat for outlying areas away from the metro.

    Winds will increase Sunday as our next cold front approaches.  The air mass ahead of this front is very dry so we’re not expecting much, if any, precipitation with this next frontal passage (FROPA), but it will serve to offer up reinforcing cool air early next week.

    The next storm system that could offer up rain will arrive Wednesday evening.  From this distance, it doesn’t appear to be a heavy rain event.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.50″


  • Much Cooler Times Await On Deck…

    screen-shot-2016-10-18-at-6-53-22-pmHighlights:

    • Wet weather moves in from south to north Wednesday PM
    • Raw Thursday
    • Much cooler, fall weather this weekend

    Find The Rain Gear…Most of Wednesday will feature dry conditions with lots of sunshine to start, but clouds will be on the increase and rain will follow.  We expect rain coverage to increase from south to north as evening gives way to nighttime.  This is all in association with a surface low developing along a stationary boundary to our south.  This area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River (Thursday) to the interior northeast (Friday).  (Indiana snow enthusiasts know that’s a perfect track for the snowy “goods” if only it was a month, or so, later). We will continue to dream… 🙂

    Back to regularly scheduled programming…

    Rain will grow in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and periods of rain will be with us through the day Thursday.  Heaviest rains should fall through the southern half of the state (where localized 2″+ totals are possible).  The other weather element we’ll have to deal with Thursday is an increasingly chilly and raw northeast wind shifting to the north late.  Temperatures will remain steady and slowly fall by evening.

    As the area of low pressure pulls off to the northeast, it’ll help drive the coolest air of the season southward.  Patchy frost is possible for outlying areas Saturday morning.  Fall foliage should be looking “really nice” this weekend across central IN.

    Dry, but breezy, conditions will be with us early next week, but we’re eyeing our next storm system by the middle to latter portions of the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier amounts southeast)


  • Remarkable Summer Feel Through Mid Week; Late Week Changes…

    Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today.  Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon.  We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.

    Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
    Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
    Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
    Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

    We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday.  Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected.  Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).

    A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
    A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
    The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
    The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

    Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN.  While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.

    Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
    Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

    Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge.  While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best.  We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward.  Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).

    European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
    European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

    As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned.  As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).

    Complete 7-day will be posted later!


  • From Summer To Fall…

    screen-shot-2016-10-15-at-9-03-37-amHighlights:

    • Stretch of unseasonably warm, summer-like weather
    • Turning much cooler late in the period
    • Unsettled to close the work week

    Near Record Warmth Gives Way To A Cooler Feel…We have to deal with low clouds and areas of fog this morning, but expect enough wind to mix things out and return us to a variably cloudy sky this afternoon.  Significantly warmer conditions are on tap today than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple days.  Winds will become gusty this afternoon (20-30 MPH).

    Scattered showers will drop south Sunday.  These will impact mostly northern locations (north of I-70) and won’t be a big deal.

    Monday and Tuesday will feature strong and gusty southwest winds (30-40 MPH), dry conditions, and near record warmth.  Highs in the lower 80s for mid October is downright impressive, but the warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s is almost unheard of for this time of year.  Enjoy the stretch of extended summer.

    Our weather pattern will offer up an increasingly chilly regime late week and the overall evolution of a storm system is still up in the air in regards to rain timing and amounts.  For now we’re leaning towards a wet, chilly, and blustery forecast Thursday and Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″


  • Warm & Windy This Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…

    Central Indiana will enjoy a nice open to the weekend. High pressure will scoot off to the east and allow a warmer, but blustery return southwesterly flow. Though we’ll be warmer tomorrow, winds will increase and gust to 30-40 MPH late in the day. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s.

    Sunday will feature an increase in cloudiness, but most shower activity should remain across northern and north-central parts of the state. Even in areas that receive rain Sunday, amounts will be light and insignificant. Here’s a look at what the radar may look like Sunday afternoon. It’ll be another unseasonably warm day as highs top out between 75°-80°, despite the increase in cloud cover.


    Speaking of warmth, that will be the major story for early and middle parts of the work week. Highs around 80° and warm overnight lows in the 60s (where our average high should be) can be expected with dry, but windy, conditions in play. Extended summer, anyone?!


    Changes are brewing for the latter portion of the week and that will require most of our attention over the weekend as far as sifting through the various details. While confidence is high in a transition to drastically cooler conditions, the evolution of specifics concerning rain chances results in a much lower level of confidence. As it stands now, we’ll increase rain chances for the late week period (late Wednesday into Thursday), but the duration of wet weather is up in the air. The GEFS (below) shows the wetter pattern returning.


    Note the various ensemble solutions (above) of how the upper air pattern may look in the 8-10 day period. Solutions range from a drier and downright chilly look (European) to one that’s cooler, but still unsettled (GFS, GEM). Time is required to continue to fine tune things.

    All of that said, as previously mentioned, we’re much more confident in the cooler look to close October. The GEFS sees that, as well.