• Category Archives Forecast Discussion
  • Time Is Ticking On This Summer Heat…

    There are no changes to our ongoing forecast of “bonus” summer-like conditions into early next week.  Highs will continue to zoom into the upper 80s and overnight lows will remain well above average (mid-to-upper 60s).  (Keep in mind, averages now feature highs in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s).

    However, a cold front will approach the middle part of next week and while this won’t be an efficient rain producer, it will serve to deliver a return of fall-like air as we close September and open October.  From a precipitation stand point, rainfall amounts look “anemic” at best over the upcoming 7-10 days.

    At this distance, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the FROPA, but many will remain rain-free and even those that do pick up a shower or storm shouldn’t expect significant rains.  What will be a much bigger deal will be the return of an authentic fall feel by next Friday, continuing into early October.

  • Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…

    So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.

    That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold.  The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow.  Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).

    Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week.  Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.

    Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10.  This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches.  We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…

  • Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

    The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

    Week 1
    Week 2
    Weeks 3-4

    Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

    • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
    • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

    Now…the CFSv2:

    Weeks 1-2
    Weeks 3-4

    Key take-aways:

    • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

    While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

    To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

  • BIG Reversal Coming…

    Through August and the first half of September, the mean trough position has been located across our part of the country.  This has helped lead to an extended period of below normal temperatures and an early start to fall.

    Well below normal temperatures have dominated the first half of September.

    You knew summer wouldn’t go away without fighting back at least once more, didn’t you?!  Sure enough, over the next couple of weeks, ridging will expand across the east and this will provide late-season summer heat in the exact area where it’s been coolest month-to-date.

    This will deliver temperature anomalies 5° to 10° above average as we traverse the back half of the month, including highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

    Meanwhile, our friends out west (where it’s been warm, month-to-date) will begin to experience early winter-like conditions, including high elevation snowfall across the central and northern Rockies.

    Looking ahead, after our period of summer-like conditions comes to an end late month, a more transient (active) pattern should develop.  This will serve to do a couple of things:

    • Lead to a rather wet regime
    • Pops of cold air become increasingly likely behind FROPAs

    It’ll be interesting to see what the NEW Weeklies look like today, including the European and JMA.  We’ll post on our thoughts with both later.

  • Monday Evening Rambles: Looking Towards October….

    Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.

    Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…

    European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.

  • Thursday Afternoon: Quick Word On Irma…

    As of this update (4p Thursday), Irma remains a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH winds, moving WNW at 16 MPH.  Some fluctuations in strength are likely over the next couple of days, but Irma will remain a category 4-5 hurricane over the next couple of days.

    Interests along the Florida peninsula (impacts beginning late Friday night-Saturday) all the way up the coast to include GA (beginning late Saturday-Sunday) and the Carolinas (beginning Sunday evening-Monday morning) should remain abreast of the latest developments with Irma.  It should also be noted that this won’t just be a coastal problem.  In fact, areas well inland, including the southern Appalachians, can expect significant impacts from Irma as she races north early next week.  It’s a particularly concerning scenario when you combine the expected inland track of Irma with the orientation of the NC mountains.  Flooding and damaging winds are a good bet given current data taking Irma over the high country (keep in mind Irma’s remnants are likely to track over mountains exceeding 6k feet).  The topography will not only result in enhanced rainfall from orographic lift, but result in tropical storm and low-end hurricane force wind gusts.

    We’ve also had several questions with respect to Irma potentially impacting central Indiana.  As of now, we still forecast an increasingly gusty easterly wind Monday afternoon and evening followed by increasing clouds and showers lifting from southeast to northwest Monday night.  Breezy conditions and showers remain in the forecast Tuesday, especially for the southern half of the state as Irma’s remnants track into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region.  While this is still a fluid situation, as of now we don’t anticipate big problems with either wind or rain across central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

  • VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…

    The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening.  Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).

    MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week.  Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.