- Category Archives Forecast Discussion
October, month-to-date, has been nothing short of a blow torch. Officially, IND is running +9° through the 11th.
In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits. Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.
The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts. Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage. The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.
A more significant pattern change appears dialed up prior to Halloween and this is one that seems suited to lead to more prolonged and significant cold to wrap up the month and head on into November. Notice the evolution of things from October 21st to the 25th, courtesy of the GEFS off the fantastic tropicaltidbits.com. Other model data is in general agreement, leading to a rather high confidence level for this time period.
It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later! Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening. Make it a great day!
- Early morning rain ends
- Cooler air arrives
- Warm Saturday
- Much cooler close to the weekend
Buckle Up…Early morning showers and embedded thunder should press northeast of the region before the rush gets underway. All the same, expect damp roads on the way in to work and school Wednesday morning. Additionally, we’ll notice a much cooler feel to the day, including nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures. After a seasonable high Thursday, dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be with us to wrap up the work week.
Our next storm system will take aim on the region this weekend. Dry conditions will prevail Saturday, along with a gusty southwest wind that will help aid in boosting temperatures to around 80° (where’s that college football weather)?! That southwest (warm) wind will be in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver scattered showers Sunday. Not everyone will get wet, but everyone will notice the much cooler close to the weekend. Temperatures will fall Sunday evening with a gusty north breeze.
Early next week will open dry and cool. – Just classic fall weather that most of us have come to know and love this time of year around these parts!
Looking ahead, there continue to be signs that point towards potentially a more significant shift in the weather pattern that would result in a rather dramatic cold transition to wrap up the month. More on this later.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 1.00″
For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective. As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.
Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.
It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.
An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week. This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place. Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground. The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.
In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday. In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.
Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures. Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far. No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.
A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend. From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.
Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…
October has gotten off to a warm start (+ 8.4° at IND, to be exact) and that will continue this weekend as high temperatures top out between 80° – 85° Saturday.
In addition to Saturday’s warmth, southwest winds will gust over 35 MPH at times- especially during the afternoon hours.
Most of Saturday will remain rain free, but we’ll need to keep an eye towards the western horizon Saturday afternoon as a frontal boundary helps kick up a line of thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a large portion of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday. While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, a couple of embedded gusty storms are a good bet Saturday afternoon and evening.
The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds. While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.
We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!