A cold front is on the move this evening. After a summer-like Saturday (that likely featured the last 80° day until next spring), MUCH cooler air will invade Sunday.
This evening, showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been strong-to-severe, are ongoing to our west and northwest. As the cold front draws closer, showers will push into central Indiana Sunday morning (mid-to-late morning). These showers and embedded thunder will be much weaker than what’s currently impacting our western neighbors. Here’s an idea what the radar may look like around 10a.
The bigger story Sunday will be the falling temperatures. Early risers will be greeted by temperatures around 70°, but these mild readings will transition to downright chilly conditions before sunset: 50s by lunch and 40s shortly after dark. Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings will fall into the 30s for outlying communities.
Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days. Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend. Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on. Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.
The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point. Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again. Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise). Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.
Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario. The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it. Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things. For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday. Stay tuned.
The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.
One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!
1.) Matthew is rumbling towards the east coast of FL this evening and data continues to suggest a landfall near West Palm Beach late tonight or during the predawn hours Friday. Regardless, an extended period of hurricane conditions, beach erosion, surge, and heavy rain await the FL peninsula.
For the Space Coast region, this very well could be the most significant hurricane the area has seen. Our thoughts and prayers continue for our family and friends in Matthew’s path.
Most model data likes the “loop de loop” idea and potentially brings Matthew back in for a second FL landfall early next week (in a much weaker state, thankfully, due to upwelling and shear).
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
The weekend into early next week will remain pleasant, with chilly, clear nights and lots of sunshine during the day, along with cool afternoon highs.
3.) The longer term pattern through at least the middle of October is one that features anomalous warmth and dry conditions. In fact, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for afternoon highs to reach close to 80 once again towards Day 10…. We shall see.
The initial push of moisture will ride into central IN this afternoon (likely between 2p-3p time frame). Embedded thunder will be a good bet, but the storms pushing in should be in a weakened state compared to what our neighbors to our west will experience a few hours earlier.
Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday. The good news? After the initial round of showers this afternoon, most high school football games could very well be dry tonight.
It won’t rain the entire time Saturday, but scattered storms are a good bet through the day. Some locally heavy rainfall is likely, but rain amounts won’t be uniform. On average 0.75″-1″ is a good bet.
Sunday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure builds in and supplies a drier air mass. Flipping the page to next week, the big story will be a late season push of summer heat followed by a significant cold front next weekend. Behind this front, a true push of bonafide autumn air will push in. Sweaters and jackets will likely be needed as we put a wrap on September…
Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package. This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon. Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall. Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday. Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour. Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.
Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast. Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend. In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday. Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…
October-like weather will remain in place today, complete with wall-to-wall sunshine. We suggest finding a way to get outside to watch the Colts kick off the season! Dry conditions will remain with us for the balance of the work week before we introduce shower and thunderstorm chances into the forecast heading into next weekend. Timing differences are there in regards to the arrival of our next cold front, but for now we’ll mention scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
The first of two cold fronts pushed through the region last night and helped usher in late day clearing that set up a beautiful sunset across central IN. The heat of September’s open is long gone and in it’s wake we can expect gorgeous weather today, with some sunshine before clouds increase later today.
A secondary cold front will sweep in to close the work week and this front will be responsible for delivering gusty showers Friday, followed by an airmass that’s more October-like than September over the weekend. It’ll be a perfect weekend for football, chili, bonfires, and all things pumpkin! 🙂
Dry conditions return next week with moderating temperatures.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
@Cryptics caught an amazing sunset last night, after what was a rather rainy, gloomy day.
As mentioned below, bust potential was/ is high with today’s forecast. The further north trends in the NAM and GFS will ultimately trump the normally reliable Canadian and European solutions. As such, slushy snowfall accumulations will be light (1″-2″) for the city, itself, increasing to between 2″-5″ for northern Indianapolis suburbs (Zionsville, Carmel, Westfield, Noblesville, etc.). Double digit totals will fall across the northern third of the state.
For the most part, snowfall accumulations will come from this area of precipitation moving through the region.
Heavy wet snow will likely fall for a period of time, especially from northern portions of Indianapolis and points north late morning into the early afternoon.
Temperatures will then likely creep up a few degrees through the mid afternoon hours before falling this evening. Snow will mix with, or change to, snow across central regions this afternoon with the northward track of the low. Note the stark temperature contrast across the region this evening.
The week will get off to a cold start as highs Monday only top out in the lower 20s. Enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday and keep the reports coming!
Colts v. Bengals Forecast Prepared For: The Indiana Sports Report 01.04.14
Happy game day Colts fans and welcome to the start of the 2015 NFL Playoffs! (Hard to believe)! Today will feature quite a few weather changes when we compare this morning to tonight, but the main message we want to pass along is “get ready for winter!” While temperatures this morning are relatively mild, readings will fall rapidly this afternoon and we forecast left over moisture to transition to light snow and snow showers this afternoon into the evening. Additionally, winds will be strong and gusty. Tailgaters should prepare for cold conditions with rain showers mixing with and transitioning to snow by afternoon. Bundle up and GO COLTS!
Happy game day Colts fans! – New day; same story…central Indiana will remain under the influence of an “inversion” and this will keep low clouds and areas of fog prevalent for most of the day. Milder air in the 50s at 4,000-5,000 feet up is overrunning shallow cooler air that’s trapped at the surface and the result in more of the same- gloomy, cloudy, foggy weather. While temperatures won’t be as mild as they could be without the inversion, tailgaters still can’t complain about 45-50 degree air this time of year :-). Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long! Go Colts!