• Category Archives Flooding
  • Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

    Highlights:

    • Rain and storm chances increase
    • Late week cold front
    • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

    Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

    Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

    A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

    Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Heavy Rain And Storms Thursday; Phenomenal Weekend Ahead…

    Highlights:

    • Turning more humid this afternoon
    • Heavy rain Thursday
    • Cooler and drier weekend ahead

    Heavy Rain Tomorrow…Wednesday is getting off to a pleasant and beautiful start across the Hoosier state.  Sunshine will be with us throughout the day, but our pleasant air mass that we’re awaking to will grow increasingly moist this afternoon and evening.  Our next storm system approaches late tonight and will help push widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state early Thursday morning.  With such high water content in our air mass, expect periods of heavy rain across the region.  Localized flooding will result.

    The trade off to the wet and stormy Thursday will be an incredible weekend.  Despite a few lingering showers Friday, we’ll notice a dramatic drop in humidity Friday night and this will set the stage for a refreshing last weekend of July.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough both Saturday and Sunday mornings to perhaps trigger a feel of early autumn for some.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected along with unseasonably low dew points with a northeasterly flow in place.

    Temperatures and moisture levels will slowly increase as we get into early next week.  With the increasing humidity, expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 3.00″


  • Another Stormy Day, But Relief Is Coming…

    Highlights:

    • Storms increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
    • More refreshing air arrives for the weekend
    • Quiet start to next week

    Stormy Afternoon On Deck…A frontal boundary will slip into the state today and slowly push south over the next 24 hours, eventually making it out of the state Friday.  The combination of this trigger (front) along with a genuinely “soupy” air mass (precipitable water values will be north of 2″ and dew points will remain in the low-mid 70s) will result in increasing storm coverage this afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of the storms may become severe and it also won’t take much for flash flooding to develop where storms train.  In some cases, these storms will dump rainfall rates of 2″-3″/ hour.  From a severe stand point, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

    Thankfully, we’ll clear things out in time for the upcoming weekend.  With the exception of a few morning thunderstorms downstate Friday, the trend will be a drier one and that will continue into Saturday.  Along with the drier air, we’ll also note slightly cooler temperatures.  It’ll feel much more refreshing than the past couple days.

    A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and this boundary could kick-up a scattered thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon-evening before we return to dry times Monday and Tuesday.  Moisture (and heat) will return by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1″-2″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Another Stormy Day…

    Highlights:

    • Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
    • Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
    • Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel

    Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears.  This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today.  With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas.  A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.

    While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.

    A surface front will settle south Friday.  Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday.  Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.

    Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day.  This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)

     


  • Active Times This Week…

    The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley.  Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms.  The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight.  Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.

    A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels.  Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel.  Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times.  With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.

    Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend.  Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.

    When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.


  • VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Overnight Into Friday…

    The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.  A much cooler and drier air mass will arrive Friday evening and set the stage for an incredible, almost early fall-like, stretch of weather through the weekend into the first half of next week.


  • More Heavy Rain Today, But Improving Conditions As We Move Into The Weekend…

    After a relative “lull” in the rainfall coverage and intensity overnight, rain is expanding in coverage and intensity yet again this morning.  While there will be a rather sharp cut-off to the west, additional heavy rains are ahead from northwestern Indianapolis ‘burbs (including places such as Brownsburg, Whitestown, and Sheridan), Indianapolis, and points south and east.

    HRRR simulated radar shows this rain shield nicely as we progress through mid and late morning.

    Additional rainfall of 1″-1.5″ is likely from Indianapolis and points south and east with this band of rain before drier weather finally works in here this afternoon and evening.  Otherwise, expect continued windy, cold, and raw conditions today as temperatures remain in the 40s this afternoon, including wind chills in the 30s.

    Looking ahead, one last batch of rain will arrive on the scene Saturday morning.

    We’ll finally get rid of the rain and introduce a drier regime Saturday afternoon into Sunday, including a sunny close to the weekend.  With the drier air, overnight lows will fall to frosty levels Sunday and Monday mornings (lower to middle 30s).

    More on the longer range this weekend!


  • Heavy Rain And Flooding Update…

    Unfortunately, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing forecast.  Widespread rain will continue through Friday, occasionally heavy.  By the time all is said and done, many local rain gauges will check in between 3″-4″.  Lets break it down:

    This morning’s radar shows rain intensifying across central and western portions of the state this morning, especially west of I-65.

    7:30a radar snap shot.

    Plan on steady rains to continue today, periodically heavy.  If you live near a body of water, remain aware of current water levels.  Significant rises will begin to take place this afternoon as the periodically heavy rains add up.

    12p forecast radar.

    Widespread rain will continue overnight into Friday morning.  As low pressure slowly tracks northeast, we think a “deformation zone” will set-up shop across central Indiana Friday.  Within this large band of rain, multiple intense rain bands will pivot through central Indiana.  Flood concerns will remain high through Friday.

    We should finally get into drier air Friday night before one last round of showers pushes southeast across the state Saturday morning.  As of this update, we bracket the 4a-10a timeframe for renewed wet weather.  By Saturday afternoon, drier air should win out and result in a much more favorable forecast Saturday night into Sunday.

    By the time all is said and done, widespread 3″-4″ storm totals are expected, and will most certainly lead to flooding.  Even localized 4″+ amounts can be expected within areas where the heaviest rain bands persist.

    In closing, as drier air begins to arrive on the scene Saturday evening, much cooler conditions will result in areas of frost into early next week.  Lows in the lower to middle 30s will be common Sunday and Monday mornings across central Indiana.


  • Flooding Concerns Return…

    Highlights:

    • Heavy rain returns
    • Unseasonably cool
    • Drier weather returns late in the weekend

    Live Near A Body Of Water? Keep An Eye On The Level…Central Indiana will deal with an extended period of rain, occasionally heavy, tonight through Friday afternoon.  With saturated soils in place, an additional widespread 2.5″-3.5″ (with locally heavier amounts) between now and Saturday morning, flooding concerns are very high.  As the lead off states, please remain aware of water levels if you live near a creek, stream, or river.  The other aspect of this storm will be unseasonably chilly air and gusty easterly winds that will shift to the north Friday night into Saturday.

    The weekend will provide a drier trend, but the improvements will be slow to occur.  Showers remain in our Saturday forecast before drier air finally wins out Sunday with sunshine.  The worry once to Sunday and Monday mornings will be the potential of frost and freeze conditions- especially in communities away from downtown.  Remember, no planting around these parts until after Mother’s Day!  😉

    Shower chances return by the middle of next week!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  3″ – 4″