• Category Archives Flooding
  • Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…

    The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth.  Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.

    Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.

    Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.

    Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.

    Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.

    As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area.  By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing.  As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.  With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.

    After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend.  At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.

    By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.

     


  • Saturday Morning Rambles: Periods Of Heavy Rain Early Next Week…

    I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening.  Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.

    II.  We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.

    A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday.  This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region.  Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).

    While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.

    Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots.  Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.

    III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March.  That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…


  • Wednesday Morning Notebook: Thursday Storm Threat; Heavy Rain Next Week…

    I. Scattered light showers will impact the southern half of the state today, but these won’t be a big deal and more of just a nuisance for our Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures will remain in the 40s for most of the afternoon before rising overnight.

    Forecast radar today at 3p shows scattered light showers around.

    II. A cold front will drop in Thursday evening and this will deliver more widespread heavier rainfall and even a couple of thunderstorms Thursday night.  In general, we expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain to fall.

    III. We’ll turn briefly colder to close the work week. A couple of light snow showers are possible Friday morning and a wave of low pressure will “try” to push moisture into the cold air Saturday.  As of now, we remain unimpressed with the prospect of impactful wintry weather Saturday, but have included the potential of wet snow in our Saturday forecast.  Precipitation appears to be very light.  Nonetheless, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

    IV. The pattern continues to scream and warm and wet next week as a big ole southeast ridge remains in place.  This will direct the steering current into the TN and OH Valley regions and multiple waves of rain, occasionally heavy, will result beginning early next week and continuing into the middle and latter portions of the week.  Widespread 2″ to 3″ totals with locally heavier amounts seems to be a good bet next week.

    We note a true Gulf connection and precipitable water values that will exceed 300% of normal at times.  Parts of the Ohio Valley will deal with flooding, but it’s premature to get more specific than that from this distance.  If you live near waterways, plan to keep a close eye on future updates and forecasts.

    V. We note data continues to suggest a colder period looms as we close out the month of February and head into March. Note how the GEFS and EPS continues to tank the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  Winter’s not over, not by a long shot…


  • Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

    Highlights:

    • Rain and storm chances increase
    • Late week cold front
    • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

    Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

    Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

    A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

    Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Heavy Rain And Storms Thursday; Phenomenal Weekend Ahead…

    Highlights:

    • Turning more humid this afternoon
    • Heavy rain Thursday
    • Cooler and drier weekend ahead

    Heavy Rain Tomorrow…Wednesday is getting off to a pleasant and beautiful start across the Hoosier state.  Sunshine will be with us throughout the day, but our pleasant air mass that we’re awaking to will grow increasingly moist this afternoon and evening.  Our next storm system approaches late tonight and will help push widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state early Thursday morning.  With such high water content in our air mass, expect periods of heavy rain across the region.  Localized flooding will result.

    The trade off to the wet and stormy Thursday will be an incredible weekend.  Despite a few lingering showers Friday, we’ll notice a dramatic drop in humidity Friday night and this will set the stage for a refreshing last weekend of July.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough both Saturday and Sunday mornings to perhaps trigger a feel of early autumn for some.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected along with unseasonably low dew points with a northeasterly flow in place.

    Temperatures and moisture levels will slowly increase as we get into early next week.  With the increasing humidity, expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 3.00″


  • Another Stormy Day, But Relief Is Coming…

    Highlights:

    • Storms increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
    • More refreshing air arrives for the weekend
    • Quiet start to next week

    Stormy Afternoon On Deck…A frontal boundary will slip into the state today and slowly push south over the next 24 hours, eventually making it out of the state Friday.  The combination of this trigger (front) along with a genuinely “soupy” air mass (precipitable water values will be north of 2″ and dew points will remain in the low-mid 70s) will result in increasing storm coverage this afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of the storms may become severe and it also won’t take much for flash flooding to develop where storms train.  In some cases, these storms will dump rainfall rates of 2″-3″/ hour.  From a severe stand point, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

    Thankfully, we’ll clear things out in time for the upcoming weekend.  With the exception of a few morning thunderstorms downstate Friday, the trend will be a drier one and that will continue into Saturday.  Along with the drier air, we’ll also note slightly cooler temperatures.  It’ll feel much more refreshing than the past couple days.

    A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and this boundary could kick-up a scattered thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon-evening before we return to dry times Monday and Tuesday.  Moisture (and heat) will return by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1″-2″ (locally heavier totals)


  • Another Stormy Day…

    Highlights:

    • Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
    • Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
    • Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel

    Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears.  This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today.  With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas.  A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.

    While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.

    A surface front will settle south Friday.  Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday.  Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.

    Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day.  This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)