- Category Archives European Model
The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week. JMA first:
Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:
- Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
- As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on
- Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.
While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall. They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.
To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold. Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend. This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD). After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air. That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.
Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.
Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…
European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.
Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis. The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
- Wednesday into Thursday
- Saturday into Sunday
- Middle parts of the following week
While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half. Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved. That’s just the way this time of year is. With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot. We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.
However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one. This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.
The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.
Updated 7-day out later this afternoon! Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!
1.) It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana. Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.
2.) Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week. There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast. Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday. As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.
3.) We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year. In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.
4.) Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week. That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best. It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week. Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.” One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period. In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.
With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start. As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet. The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.
Whether or not central Indiana deals with a winter storm Sunday-Monday is up for debate, but what’s not up for debate is the likelihood of a very active and stormy pattern. We’re rolling into a new pattern right on schedule and it’s one that could produce multiple big-hitter winter storms this season. As we know, each storm system will have its’ respected challenges that will require a great deal of attention (all winter storms do), but we want to continue to stress that, eventually, the mean winter pattern is one that could (and one could easily argue “should”) yield not just one, but multiple heavy wintry impact events.
That brings us to the European model and the potential of wintry prospects for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Before we look at the current data, let’s look back at what the European’s ensemble mean printed out last Saturday. At first glance, it’s not a very “interesting” look, but understanding the European’s known bias of hanging too much energy back in the SW led us to begin raising an eyebrow for wintry “mischief” for the upcoming weekend into early parts of what was then Week 2 (12.4.16-12.5.16 time frame).
Since then, the European has begun to lock-in to a trend of bringing that SW energy out quicker and, in return, igniting a surface low to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Saturday before tracking northeast into the TN Valley (Sunday) and Great Lakes region (Monday).
Taken verbatim, this would spread a cold rain into central IN Sunday before colder air begins to change the rain over to a wet, heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning across central IN. Heavy, wind-blown, snow amounts would result with such a solution for portions of central IN. Such a scenario would be a high-impact event. While the majority of model data (factoring in the GFS and Canadian, for example) is far from agreeing on such a solution, it’s important to note that a trend of such a scenario is beginning to develop within the powerful European forecast model. Furthermore, roughly half of the European’s (51) ensemble members agree on an impactful winter event in the Sunday-Monday time period for central Indiana.
What could go wrong? Plenty. This is an event that’s still 6-7 days away and a subtle shift west or east with the low’s track would result in mostly a rain vs. snow event. Realizing that is as important as understanding that when the European model begins to lock-in to a trend, it’s also imperative we pay particular attention- no matter if this is an event in the short-term, or medium-range. Though far from perfect, the European model has been known to “sniff out” impactful events well before other data. Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.
In closing, regardless if this is “the storm” that ushers in the snowy pattern we expect this year, or not, there are plenty of additional “fun and games” awaiting on deck. As mentioned previously, challenges will await with each respected storm (for example, rain-snow-mix lines). Wintry weather will likely be a news headline this Christmas season as travel plans are altered and snow removal efforts are initiated much earlier than recent winter’s past. If our idea is correct, the expected snowy December pattern is only the beginning to a busy winter…