• Category Archives European Model
  • Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…

    Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis.  The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.

    Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:

    • Wednesday into Thursday
    • Saturday into Sunday
    • Middle parts of the following week

    While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half.  Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved.  That’s just the way this time of year is.  With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.

    As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood.  Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week.  Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern.  Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things.  Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…


  • Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…

    Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot.  We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.

    Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.

    However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one.  This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.

    The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.

    The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.

    Updated 7-day out later this afternoon!  Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!


  • Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

    1.)  It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana.  Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.

    Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.

    2.)  Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week.  There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast.  Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.

    Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.

    3.)  We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year.  In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.

    Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.

    4.)  Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week.  That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best.  It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week.  Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.”  One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period.  In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.

    The weather turns active next weekend.


  • February Tug Of War…

    With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start.  As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.

    conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend.  This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks.  The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.

    EPS2317This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks.  See the GFS ensembles support this idea.  A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.

    gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain.  Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

    gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month.  As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet.  The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.


  • Better Get Used To This Type Pattern This Winter; A Word On The European…

    Whether or not central Indiana deals with a winter storm Sunday-Monday is up for debate, but what’s not up for debate is the likelihood of a very active and stormy pattern.  We’re rolling into a new pattern right on schedule and it’s one that could produce multiple big-hitter winter storms this season.  As we know, each storm system will have its’ respected challenges that will require a great deal of attention (all winter storms do), but we want to continue to stress that, eventually, the mean winter pattern is one that could (and one could easily argue “should”) yield not just one, but multiple heavy wintry impact events.

    That brings us to the European model and the potential of wintry prospects for the upcoming weekend into early next week.  Before we look at the current data, let’s look back at what the European’s ensemble mean printed out last Saturday.  At first glance, it’s not a very “interesting” look, but understanding the European’s known bias of hanging too much energy back in the SW led us to begin raising an eyebrow for wintry “mischief” for the upcoming weekend into early parts of what was then Week 2 (12.4.16-12.5.16 time frame).

    day8-10euroSince then, the European has begun to lock-in to a trend of bringing that SW energy out quicker and, in return, igniting a surface low to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Saturday before tracking northeast into the TN Valley (Sunday) and Great Lakes region (Monday).

    1stwkndofdecTaken verbatim, this would spread a cold rain into central IN Sunday before colder air begins to change the rain over to a wet, heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning across central IN.  Heavy, wind-blown, snow amounts would result with such a solution for portions of central IN.  Such a scenario would be a high-impact event.  While the majority of model data (factoring in the GFS and Canadian, for example) is far from agreeing on such a solution, it’s important to note that a trend of such a scenario is beginning to develop within the powerful European forecast model.  Furthermore, roughly half of the European’s (51) ensemble members agree on an impactful winter event in the Sunday-Monday time period for central Indiana.

    What could go wrong?  Plenty.  This is an event that’s still 6-7 days away and a subtle shift west or east with the low’s track would result in mostly a rain vs. snow event.  Realizing that is as important as understanding that when the European model begins to lock-in to a trend, it’s also imperative we pay particular attention- no matter if this is an event in the short-term, or medium-range.  Though far from perfect, the European model has been known to “sniff out” impactful events well before other data.  Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.

    In closing, regardless if this is “the storm” that ushers in the snowy pattern we expect this year, or not, there are plenty of additional “fun and games” awaiting on deck.  As mentioned previously, challenges will await with each respected storm (for example, rain-snow-mix lines).  Wintry weather will likely be a news headline this Christmas season as travel plans are altered and snow removal efforts are initiated much earlier than recent winter’s past.  If our idea is correct, the expected snowy December pattern is only the beginning to a busy winter…


  • Confidence Increasing On Leader-Follower Event; But Details Murky…

    A look over model data from overnight suggests we need to focus on a “leader-follower” event for the upcoming weekend.

    We’re confident the “leader” player is a rain maker for IN in the Thursday afternoon-Friday time frame (.40-.70 rainfall potential).

    Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

    As we progress into the second half of the weekend, details get quite murky on the specifics with the secondary (follower) area of low pressure that develops along a pressing arctic front.

    As we’ve been discussing, model solutions will vary within each respected model (GFS, Euro, GEM, etc.) in a run-to-run fashion.  Stack them up against one another, and we’ll likely continue to have as many different solutions as we do models that we’re looking at.  It’s a byproduct of a pattern transition and that crashing SOI (which is still crashing this morning, btw).  Case in point, note the various options below for Sunday.

    The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
    The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

    Past experience with similar patterns certainly leads us to lean more towards the European/ Canadian solution over the GFS from this distance.  We know that models have their own biases though.  Time and time again the GFS bias is to rush things along a bit too much from this distance and become too progressive.  On the flip side, the European is notorious for dragging it’s heels a bit and, at times, can be too slow with bringing energy out of the west.  This in return impacts things downstream…

    From this distance, we still can’t be too specific with snow/ precipitation prospects Sunday.  While confidence is increasing on at least some sort of snow to contend with, the significance of such isn’t possible to iron out at the moment.  Much fine tuning will be required.  Stay tuned.


  • Looking Ahead To Christmas Week And The Rest Of December…

    Finally, it’s a cold start to the day, and feels like a mid December morning should!  Temperatures are running significantly behind where we were across the east this time yesterday.

    t0Highs today will only climb to around freezing across central Indiana.  Add in a stiff NW breeze and wind chills will be colder.  Grab the coat before heading out to finalize that Christmas shopping.

    SaturdayHighsThis cold is coming in the face of what’s been a very warm month.  Meteorological winter, as expected, has opened warmer than normal.

    DecToDateBy the way, we think changes towards colder loom mid and late January on.  That likely carries us into spring this year with winter continuing.

    Christmas week is coming into better focus now, and the “blend” of model solutions was, indeed, the best path to take.  The European’s blow torch 70 degree idea was laughable.  Still warmer than normal, Christmas morning should start in the middle 30s with highs in the upper 40s.

    The lead up to Christmas will be an unsettled one after a dry weekend.  Moisture returns Monday.

    MondayAnother surge of moisture comes in advance of a cold front and associated area of low pressure Christmas Eve before colder air oozes in.

    ChristmasEveChristmas morning opens chilly, but dry, as high pressure is overhead.

    ChristmasMorningLooking ahead, an active close to 2015 appears to be in the cards.  Model solutions at this distance have ranged from a major winter storm to a flooding rain threat.  We’re not confident on either idea at this point.  Without blocking, it’ll be mighty tough to get anything wintry from this storm, and we also note models have been overdoing rainfall totals in the 5-10 day range as of late.  That said, is this the storm that can begin to set us up for the expected overall pattern change to winter coming in January?

    Note the wild differences between the GFS, GEM, and European for the storm leading up to New Years.

    29th

    cmc_pr6_slp_t850_conus2_36

    ecm_mslpa_conus_11When we turn to the ensembles to attempt to gain a clearer picture of what we can expect, we see they are of no help either.

    f228Are we confident of a storm coming to wrap up 2015?  Absolutely, but, again, far less confident on the specifics from this distance.  An overall wetter than average pattern is likely, however.

    LateDecTo wrap things up this morning we still note a favorable SST profile for wintry conditions mid and late winter.  In other words, hang in there winter fans.  🙂

    sst.anomBy the way, a major crash is coming that will send us into a La Nina by the second half of 2016.  The implications this can have are vast, and include an active severe season and big time Atlantic tropical season.

    ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-59vNMa

    figure42


  • Sweaters Or Shorts For Christmas?

    Before we get into the thinking behind our set-up for Christmas, we want to be very clear in saying the overall warm pattern will continue as we head through the holiday season and into early parts of 2016.  We do see signs of changes brewing that could (and should) lead to a dramatic flip of the coin for the second half of winter.  With a weakening Nino, it’s also likely that the cold and wintry changes last deep into spring this year, but that’s for another discussion down the road.

    In the grand scheme of things, mid and long range model data strongly suggests a very warm pattern remains across the eastern half of the nation, while cold dominates the west, through the end of 2015.

    CFSv2

    NAEFS

    GEFSJust to be clear, we’re very confident on the medium range warmth to wrap up the year (and most likely open 2016).  Contrary to how confident we are on the overall warm pattern through the mid range, we’re much less confident with the shorter term pattern that encompasses the all-important Christmas Eve – Christmas Day forecast.  Getting right to the point, the American GFS forecast model suggests we’re dealing with a FROPA (frontal passage) Christmas Eve night that sets up a blustery, colder Christmas with morning snow flurries possible.  The GFS says we make it into the lower to middle 40s for highs Christmas.  On the flip side, the European model (usually, but not always, more accurate than the GFS) says we blow into early summer-like levels with highs around 70 degrees Christmas, including a mostly dry forecast with strong southwest winds.  How does an afternoon BBQ sound Christmas with that sort of idea?!

    When we get down to the dirty details, the differences all have to do with the way the models handle the eastern (Bermuda) ridge.  A snap-shot of the 8-10 day ensemble composite (that shows the Euro, GFS, and Canadian) highlights small, but significant, differences with the ridge placement.

    Source: Penn State e-wall
    Source: Penn State e-wall

    The GFS model (and Canadian, as well) suggests we’re dealing with a more progressive pattern Christmas that results in the cold “sloshing” it’s way east much quicker than its’ European counterpart.  Meanwhile, the European model says the eastern ridge flexes it’s muscle going into the Christmas period and results in the warmer, breezy solution as opined above.

    When we dig in further, experience tells us we should “raise an eyebrow” to both solutions.  How many times have we seen the biases that both models have impact the mid to long range forecast?  The GFS has an eastern (more progressive) bias while the European has a western (slower)  bias.  Hint: It’ll be important to remember that as we rumble into more active cold and wintry times come mid and late in the season.

    To sum things up, while we’re supremely confident in the long term warm pattern to wrap up the year, we remain very cautious with either solution currently being portrayed by either *normally* more-trusted mid range models.  Lets give it a couple more days and see where things go.  I wish we could be more certain with that all-important Christmas forecast, but we simply can’t at this juncture.  Both solutions have been very consistent with their respected idea for the past couple days.  One thing’s for sure and that’s that we’ll be looking at a major model bust sooner rather than later…