• Category Archives Drought
  • Weekly Highlights: Action Out West…

    Highlights10051011There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well. One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week. While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes. 🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

    1.)  The upper low associated with the catastrophic flooding in SC will continue to slowly pull away from the area as we progress into Tuesday.  Our thoughts and prayers remain with the fine folks of South Carolina as recovery and clean up begins.  Hard to believe areas of SC were in a significant drought as soon as last week.  Those exact same areas have received as much as 25″-30″ of rain over the past 72 hours.  Simply amazing stuff.

    2.)  A series of storm systems will clip the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain and wind as the week progresses- particularly mid week into the weekend.

    3.)  A storm system and significant moisture will move through the Four Corners region and into western Texas Wednesday into the weekend.  Heavy rain and localized flooding will result.

    4.)  A cold front will move through the Mid West later this week with showers and embedded thunder, along with cooler air for the weekend.

    As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide. Have a great day and God Bless!


  • Thursday Weather Notebook…

    Another sunny day:

    This morning’s satellite shows that we’re going to be looking at another mostly sunny and pleasant day across the region. Humidity remains lows for now so it’ll be warm, yet pleasant this afternoon.

      
    Saturday cold front:

    A cold front will move through the region Saturday, but it continues to look like this won’t be a significant rain maker in the least. In fact, some of our more aggressive data only suggests rainfall in the 0.1″-0.2 range with the front as a broken line of showers accompany it.

       
     
    Getting very dry out there:

    After our record wet July, things “flipped on a dime” August and September (to date) in the precipitation department. Note we’re only running 25-50% of normal precipitation over the past (30) days.

      
    As such, I would expect increased areas of “abnormally dry” on the updated drought monitor later this morning.

      
    Transient patten:

    “Transient” has been the word we’ve been using to describe this pattern for several weeks and it continues to be the word we lean on when looking at the pattern over the next couple weeks.

    This week’s ridge will give way to weekend troughiness and associated cool air, only to be replaced with another ridge and warmth next week.

       
       
    That said, anticipate another potentially more significant trough and push of cool around the end of the month as Krovanh recurves in the western Pacific.

      


  • More On The Rain Situation, Or Lack Thereof…

    Things are growing a bit dry around these parts.  Officially we’re down 3.25″ for the month and close to 5″ on the year.  (Climate information for IND: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ind)

    Rains the past (14) days have favored the central region, falling apart as the systems push east and northeast.  Texas and Oklahoma continue to make news headlines from severe flooding.  – Too much of a good thing all at once.

    nws_precip_conus2_14Officially we’re not even listed in the “abnormally dry” shading, but that very well may change with the Thursday update.  Courtesy of the Regional Drought Monitor:

    20150519_midwest_noneAnytime you go through May with a significant rainfall deficit it raises a concern for continued dry times going through summer.  Dry typically breeds dry this time of year, and eventually heat.  That said, a strengthening El Nino will fight the recent trend.  Around these parts weak to moderate summer El Ninos tend to yield average (to slightly above) precipitation and average (to slightly below normal) temperatures.  Recent trends, combined with longer term forecasts certainly prove to lead to a battle in the coming weeks and months…

    Shorter term as we progress through the coming days, here’s how we currently assess rainfall coverage:

    • Wednesday: Scattered- favoring eastern and southern portions of the state
    • Thursday: Mostly dry
    • Friday: Widely scattered
    • Saturday: Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, but many dry hours, as well.
    • Sunday: Scattered coverage

    * Rainfall potential through the weekend: 0.50″-1″ for most, with locally heavier totals under stronger storms.


  • Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

    Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

    Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

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    Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

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    As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

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    The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

    Monday

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    Thursday

    Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

    Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

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    The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

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    All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

    We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

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  • Tuesday Forecast: A Brilliant Day Ahead!

    Updated 09.16.13 @ 10:50p

    Zionsville, IN We’ll enjoy a cool and refreshing start to your Tuesday and this is only the beginning of what will be an absolutely “brilliant” weather day here across central Indiana. We discuss increasing warmth, humidity, rain chances, and look ahead to your weekend below!

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    Brilliant Tuesday: The title pretty much sums it up! We look for bright blue skies today and very pleasant temperatures. After a cool and crisp start, temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s for afternoon highs. If you can be outdoors today, make it happen!

    Heat and Humidity Increase: A warm front will lift north across the region Wednesday and as this front moves through, look for clouds to increase along with a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm. As of now, we bracket the morning and early afternoon hours Wednesday for the best chance of getting wet, and even that isn’t a great chance. We think only 20%-30% of the viewing area receives rain Wednesday. Otherwise, we’ll feel a much more humid and warmer air mass by the afternoon. This continues Thursday with a scattered shower. Highs Thursday will draw close to 90°.

    Friday Cold Front: A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass of mid week and this will lead to the best chance of significant, widespread rainfall we’ve seen around these parts in weeks. At this stage, as much as 0.50″-0.75″ looks likely across all of central Indiana Friday as the front moves in. Best chances of getting wet appear to arrive Friday evening (I know, I know…right in the middle of high school football). We’ll continue to monitor.

    Cool, Dry Weekend: If you enjoyed last weekend then you’re sure to fall in love with this upcoming weekend. A cooler and drier air mass will move in for the weekend along with lots of sunshine and dry skies.


  • Wetter Pattern Looming?

    Short term drought conditions continue to expand and worsen for many communities across central Indiana. From an agricultural stand point, negative impacts (slightly to moderately so) are being experienced on corn and soybean harvests. While nothing as severe as last year, the abnormally dry/ stage 1 drought is putting a strain on area farmers.

    The current Drought Monitor, updated as of last Thursday:

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    THAT SAID, we do note the potential of a wetter pattern looming down the road. While a widely scattered shower or storm is possible Sunday, it won’t be a big deal by any stretch of the imagination and we still think more neighborhoods stay dry than not. It’s when we get to the middle and latter part of the work week where humidity increases and the pattern tries to align itself to yield more precipitation for the Mid West region, including central Indiana.

    We note excellent agreement on the mid range models suggesting 7-10 day precipitation totals average close to 1.30″ on a widespread basis.

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    The CFSv2 weeklies suggest an abnormally wet close to September:

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    We’ll keep a close eye on things as we move forward!


  • Fall-Like Now, But Hot Pattern Returning

    Updated 09.03.23 @ 11:18p

    Zionsville, IN What a beautiful Tuesday we enjoyed. “Meteorological summer” runs through the end of August and it seems as if Mother Nature has followed suit. Recall the lower humidity that worked into the state Labor Day. This allowed temperatures to bottom out between 50°-55° for most this morning. Yes, a true feel of fall was in the air today. But alas, conditions will flip back to a true “dog days” of summer feel as ridging builds in this weekend. Before that, lets be sure to enjoy a couple more nice days, featuring lots of sun, low humidity, and below average temperatures.

    The heat is on this weekend as we think many Hoosier communities go into the middle 80s Saturday and approach 90° Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on the tendency for troughs and associated cool air impacting the northeast through the weekend, but for now we think this cool air is off to our north and east.

    Note the ridge building and gaining control over the next (10) days. The end result in very short, simple, and to the point terminology? Hot and dry weather will dominate the next couple weeks.

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    Raw numbers off the European forecast model point towards as many as (6) days ahead of 90° heat. Here’s another depiction.

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    With ridging in place, we’re looking at an overall dry pattern. Model data over the next week and a half is absolutely pathetic for a region desperately beginning to need some moisture.

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    September, thus far, has gotten off to a very warm start. That is until today.

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    Unfortunately for all of you lovers of autumn out there, the majority of the month ahead looks well above average temperature-wise. Precipitation appears to continue running below normal. There are locals out there claiming an active pattern lies ahead, including a big blast of cool air around mid month. We’re not here to hammer those ideas, but, instead, respectfully disagree. Mid and long range data suggests our current taste of fall is just brief and the warming of this weekend is a sign of things to come the majority of the month. There’s some chance we begin to “back things down” closer to normal after the 20th, but nothing of significant cooling appears to be on the horizon for central Indiana….at least compared to average.


  • Few More Hot Days Then A Cooler Stretch Takes Hold

    Updated 08.28.13 @ 10:55p

    Zionsville, IN Coming off the hottest day of the summer (IND reached 94° today), I’m sure it’ll please many of you to know some significant changes are brewing for the cooler! We’ll endure four more hot and humid days before the refreshing northwesterly breezes take hold.

    The heat of the past several days really in truly hasn’t been all that unusual…especially considering the cool summer central Indiana has endured as a whole. It is August, after all! What is of growing concern is our short-term drought that continues to grow more significant. Here’s a look at the Drought Monitor, updated (6) days ago. A new drought monitor will be posted Thursday and it’s a safe bet this update will include worsening drought conditions.

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    5-day rainfall numbers off the GFS forecast model are quite generous, placing widespread 1″ type precipitation totals directly over central Indiana…the exact area needing the rainfall the most. Most of this falls Saturday and Sunday. Click this link for an animated look for yourself: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

    Unfortunately, the European model isn’t nearly as bullish on rainfall amounts. This particular model only puts down a little over 0.50″ through the next (10) days. Not good, at all.

    We think Thursday and Friday is mostly dry and continued hot. Highs will reach 88°-91° with overnight lows falling into the 68°-72° territory. Look for hazy sunshine under a few billowing afternoon clouds. Only an isolated thunderstorm is forecast.

    A cold front will draw closer to the region as we enter the upcoming weekend and rainfall chances will increase. As of now we think 50% of the coverage area (central Indiana) gets wet during the Saturday-Sunday period. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected. Heat and humidity will remain a focal point with highs 89°-92° and lows in the lower 70s.

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    The cold front sweeps the state Labor Day and results in a dramatically cooler, less humid brand of air next week. We’ll target highs of 74°-78° and overnight lows in the 50°-55° range (coolest outside the 465 loop). Dry, sunny weather can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday, after lower 80s Monday.

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    According to the GEFS, the cooler trend is only beginning. We note the majority of the upcoming mid-long range features seasonal to below average readings after we get through the “summery” few days ahead!

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  • 2 Surges Of Heat Coming

    Updated: 08.26.13 @ 10:31a

    Zionsville, IN Heat is ballooning over the MidWest and we note two surges of more intense heat due in here over the coming week. Early week will feature lower to middle 90s and then we’ll note another surge of heat for the holiday weekend. Highs will likely zoom to 95°, or higher, over the Labor Day weekend. The heat has to do with the well advertised big upper ridge and it’s precise placement.

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    As for precipitation, heavy rain and storms will pound portions of the eastern Ohio Valley and northeast early week. We’ll remain high and dry here. Short-term drought conditions will undoubtedly worsen in coming days. While there’s the chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm mid week (including an isolated heavy downpour), widespread rainfall of significance isn’t anticipated.

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    Needless to say, as noted above, short-term rainfall isn’t anything to be excited about.

    As for the longer range, there are some indications that this very hot pattern will begin to break down. Despite overnight runs of the European forecast model (below) suggesting significant cooling in the Day 8-10 period we disagree.

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    The MJO, though not as amplified (suggesting it won’t be as strong of a driver in the days to come), remains in the very warm Phase 1. Remember we also mentioned in the last post how we thought the European was too quick with the MJO.

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    While I do think we begin to change things around to the cooler, the call here at IndyWx.com is not for this to happen until closer to mid month. Time will tell.

    The NAEFS agrees on continued warmth through the first week to ten days of September.

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    …but some modeling is beginning to see the change for the cooler closer to mid month. Note the trough returning to the east with western ridging.

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  • First Class Heat Wave To End Meteorological Summer

    As already alluded to in previous posts and video updates (scroll below for archived posts), a pattern flip is occurring and will lead to a first class heat wave to end meteorological summer. It’s ironic that this heat is building in as we get set to welcome in meteorological fall because, truth be told, the summer has been a “cake walk” to date…cooler than average and in stark contrast from the summer of 2012…

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    2013 got off to a wet start thanks to a snowy late winter and spring. Rainy conditions carried us into early summer. That said, as of late we’re hurting for moisture. The pattern turned dramatically drier the past 4-6 weeks. While running roughly 1″ above average year-to-date, precipitation totals since June 1 are running more than 3″ below average. This is of particular concern looking at the mid to long term data because drier than normal conditions will carry us through September. In particular, the next 10-14 days look bone dry and short-term drought concerns will worsen.

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    Let’s look at the upper air pattern the next (10) days. A big heat ridge will set up shop over the mid west and lead to record late summer warmth, including prolonged temperatures into the middle 90s. Note the ridging isn’t going anywhere fast, leading to day after day of “miserably hot” conditions. As dew points climb, heat index values will approach 110°.

    (5) day average upper air pattern off the European forecast model:

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    850 mb temperature anomalies off the European forecast model:

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    We’re very suspect of the “cooler” raw model data printed off the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System (GFS) and feel it’s not nearly hot enough next week.

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    The European has a much better handle on things. Yes, records will be broken next week (originally mentioned in our Long Range video last Saturday).

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    So…just how long does this heat wave carry us into September? As of now we think the first (7-10) days remain much warmer than average. There’s the opportunity to return closer to normal by mid month, but time will tell.

    The MJO is more amplified on the European and would suggest the hot spell associated with Phase 1 would “reverse” to cooler as it swings through Phase 2:

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    That said, the GFS tells a different story and stalls out in Phase 1, continuing the hot pattern through the first full week of September. For now, we agree more with this train of thought.

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    Stay tuned!