• Category Archives Dew points
  • Increasingly Hot And Humid…

    Highlights:

    • Increasingly hot and humid
    • Isolated storm coverage becomes more widespread
    • Relief next week

    Air You Can Wear…The big weather story will be the increasingly hot and humid feel as we progress through the week and on into the weekend.  The combination of dew points in the 70s and wet soils across the state should “beat back” the heat from getting to where it otherwise could (mid-upper 90s), but it’ll feel oppressive, nonetheless.  Plan to hydrate and wear cool, lightweight clothing if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time.

    While we can’t completely rule out a renegade storm through Friday, most neighborhoods will remain free of any rain through the remainder of the work week.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend into early next week as the transition from hot, humid weather begins to give way to a more pleasant feel.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Afternoon And Evening Rumbles…

    Highlights:

    • T-storms arrive this afternoon
    • Heating up this week
    • Stormy periods late-week

    Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day!  The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening.  One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).

    As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week.  Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel.  Prepare to sweat.

    Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch.  Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″


  • Another Stormy Day…

    Highlights:

    • Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
    • Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
    • Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel

    Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears.  This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today.  With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas.  A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.

    While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.

    A surface front will settle south Friday.  Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday.  Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.

    Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day.  This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)

     


  • Active Times This Week…

    The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley.  Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms.  The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight.  Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.

    A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels.  Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel.  Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times.  With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.

    Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend.  Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.

    When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.


  • Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…

    With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead.  Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.

    Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.

    The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north.  As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.

    The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.

    As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west.  The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast).  Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.

    Much more later as spring evolves.


  • Meteorological Fall Begins With A Fall-Like Feel…

    Meteorological fall runs from Sept. 1st through Nov. 30th. With that said, it’s only fitting we feel more fall-like on this the first day of meteorological fall.  We note 24 hour dew point changes below.  The browns indicate much drier air pressing south over the next 24-36 hours.

    DryAirYou’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning.  If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall!  🙂

    That drier air will support multiple nights with low temperatures into the lower and middle 50s tonight through Sunday morning.  We may even have a few neighborhoods dip into the upper 40s Friday or Saturday morning.

    hires_t2m_indy_55We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year.  Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall.  On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight.  In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week.  A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September.  Stay tuned…


  • Wednesday Morning Weather Notebook…

    1.)  Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.

    CODNEXLAB-1km-C_Illinois-rad-ani24-201608241115-100-100-022.)  HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.

    13.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday.  We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week.  That said, “briefly” is the key word.  Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.

    DryMoist4.)  Attention next week will shift to the tropics.  There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week.  Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.

    Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.

    Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…

    AL99_current


  • A Wet Weekend In Store…

    Screen Shot 2016-08-11 at 7.22.58 AMHighlights:

    • Tropical feel
    • Heavy weekend rains
    • Unsettled early next week

    Zoning In On Heaviest Rains…It’s about as humid as it can get across central IN.  “Air you can wear” is the appropriate way to describe this humidity and overall sultry feel.  As we’d expect with this tropical air mass, isolated to widely scattered strong storms could pop at any point and result in locally heavy rain.  We’ll “rinse and repeat” today’s forecast to wrap up the work week.

    Attention then shifts to a widespread soaking rain event this weekend as two main players “team up” to produce a localized flood threat.  A cold front will sag into central IN while remnant tropical moisture slowly moves north and eventually curls northeast.  Precisely where the front stalls in response to the tropical low moving north will be where heaviest (4″+) rains set up.  Thinking this morning places the greatest risk somewhere between Indianapolis and Louisville, but we caution that we still want to see a couple more model runs before settling on a given area.  Unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week as tropical moisture slowly exits stage right.

    Longer term, indications point towards an overall cooler, wetter, back half of August. Times- they are ‘a changing!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.00″-4.00″