• Category Archives Christmas/ Thanksgiving
  • New Year, New Pattern Awaits…

    As we rumble through the remainder of 2016, a “transient” weather pattern awaits.  Cooler, more seasonable, air is working itself into the Ohio Valley today and will be followed by another (stronger) cold front Thursday.  That front will pack more of a punch in the cold department, along with providing opportunity for snow showers, as well.  That said, we’re still about a week off from more of a sustained cold pattern.

    With the arrival of the new year, a new weather pattern will emerge as well…

    The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) will flip back to negative phases as the New Year arrives.  This will help drive the shift, initially, to a colder regime, locally.

    epo

    epoanom

    wpo

    wpoanomAccordingly, we see the ensemble data flipping to a colder pattern over the upcoming (10) days.  Note the low anomalies in the higher latitude regions today (Image 1) versus Day 10 (Image 2).

    day1

    day10The pattern developing by Day (10) is one capable of producing another frigid regime- only January style.  Cross-polar flow sets up shop and, unlike, December, some blocking is noted, as well.  This can help the mean storm track shift further south.  (Bye-bye Great Lakes cutters, though Mid Western and Ohio Valley Snow Lovers will find a new worry in the form of suppression potential ;-)).  Individual storms will have their respected challenges, as always.  As a whole, it’s a very cold, stormy look and a pattern capable of leading to an expanding snow pack across the Lower 48.

    Notes:  The new European Weeklies are in and reflect the general idea here of a more sustained cold, wintry pattern unfolding as January arrives.  The Weeklies are very cold through Weeks 2-3, in particular.  As far as snow goes, they also suggest an active storm track with numerous storms leading to an increasingly snowy regime through the middle parts of January, as well.  That said, we’re a bit hesitant to focus too much on the long-term snowfall details as the Weeklies have been too generous in the snow department over the past several weeks.  As a whole, it’s very tough to argue the pattern isn’t one that should yield the snowy “goods” in the coming weeks though.

    More later!


  • Unseasonably Warm; Wet Day After Christmas…

    screen-shot-2016-12-26-at-8-33-12-amHighlights:

    • Unseasonably warm today
    • Showers and perhaps a t-storm by lunchtime
    • Turning more seasonable later this week

    Wet At Times Today…A cold front will push across the state later this afternoon.  Ahead of the front, a warm southwesterly air flow will lead to a spring-like feel on this day after Christmas.  Coverage of showers will increase by late morning and around lunchtime, including the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm.  Once the front sweeps through the region, our winds will flip to the northwest and result in a cooler feel as early as tonight.  Tuesday will feature much more seasonable conditions.

    Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Thursday afternoon and with enough upper level energy around, we’ll mention scattered snow showers in our forecast.  Colder weather will be with us to close the week and head into New Year’s weekend.

    Speaking of New Year’s, we still eye a storm system around New Year’s Eve.  Confidence is low in the overall set-up in regards to storm track and timing and fine tuning will be required.  For now, we’ll simply go with a developing light wintry mix Saturday and “sure up” the details later this week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Merry Christmas Eve…

    screen-shot-2016-12-24-at-8-03-42-amHighlights:

    • Areas of fog
    • Rising temperatures Christmas night
    • Turning more seasonable next week

    Ah, Christmas Eve…From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a blessed holiday season.  It’s hard to believe Christmas Eve is upon us.  Despite areas of fog and an overcast, chilly day, weather really won’t present much of a challenge, locally, for travelers or last-minute shoppers (surely we don’t have any of those in central IN).  😉  Rudolph will be needed tonight as areas of fog and low clouds remain across portions of the state.

    Conditions will remain damp and chilly into Christmas as most of the day remains in the 30s.  Our air flow will shift to the south Christmas afternoon and provide a late day boost on the thermometer into the 40s after dark and near 50 by midnight.  As we see the southerly wind erode the chilly conditions in place we’ll also have to be on the look out for a passing shower Christmas afternoon.

    Better shower coverage will push in ahead of the cold front Monday morning.  An embedded clap of thunder is also possible.  Winds will shift to the NW with the passage of the cold front Monday afternoon and cooler air will spill into central IN Monday night. That high you see in the upper 50s will come just prior to the frontal passage.

    After the mild start Monday, seasonable temperatures will return next week.  Models are struggling with handling a piece of energy the middle of next week.  We’ll keep an eye on it over the next day or so.  Scattered snow showers will likely accompany a push of colder air Thursday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″


  • 12.23.16 Ensemble Discussion On The 6-10 Day…

    *A fresh 7-day will be updated late tonight or early Christmas Eve.*

    Modeling continues to suggest a colder return looms as we close out 2016 and open 2017.  We’ve discussed the implications of a negative EPO and it certainly appears as if, at least initially, the negative EPO will do the “dirty work” to drive a colder regime in the 6-10 day period.

    gefs_epo_12

    epoold_neg_12decWe note ensemble data is suggesting high latitude blocking tries to develop towards Day 10.  Recall this was the missing ingredient in the bitterly cold blasts of air that occurred during the first few weeks of December.  Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the increasingly blocky look to the pattern by Day 10.  This would help drive a cold, stormy pattern by early January.  Instead of storms cutting, we would see more suppression.  With a “stubborn” southeast ridge, things could get interesting across the Ohio Valley from a wintry perspective….

    gefs12z122316

    eps12z122316We don’t want to jump the gun, but it the positives can “hook up” over the pole, we stand the chance of locking into a rather lengthy cold, snowy regime as we rumble deeper into the heart of winter.

    Given the look, it’s no surprise we see the 12z teleconnections want to continue the trend of a negative look to the NAO and AO in the medium to longer term.

    12zeuronao122316

    12zeuroao122316Summary:  A rather mild regime remains as we rumble through Christmas before trending more seasonable next week.  From a wintry perspective we need to continue to keep an eye on the period around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Confidence continues to increase on the potential of a return of arctic air come early January.


  • Changeable Weather Christmas To New Years…

    It’s hard to believe we’re only a few days from Christmas!  Through the 22nd, Indianapolis is running a whopping 6 degrees below average.  Cold rules across the Lower 48, month-to-date.

    ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThis is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.

    conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year.  This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.

    An initial wave of moisture will lift northeast and result in a rather gloomy day Friday with increasing rain chances Friday afternoon and evening.  Initially, precipitation won’t make it to the ground, but we should saturate the column enough that rain reaches the ground for most of central IN by evening.  Showers continue Friday night into the wee morning hours Christmas Eve.  (If traveling towards Chicago, a wintry mix and snow will be a good bet Friday PM).

    hires_ref_ky_18Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region.  Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.

    Christmas Day will start off with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along with cloudy conditions and an increasingly gusty breeze that will shift out of the southeast to the south Christmas night.  Shower chances will be present by the evening before giving way to more widespread showers and embedded thunder overnight into Monday morning.  Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime Christmas before rising into the upper 50s predawn Monday.

    gfs_ptype_slp_indy_17Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week.  A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.

    Longer term, we have to wonder if the negative EPO isn’t about to take control just past the New Year.  More and more data is coming around to the idea that the arctic hounds may (yet again) be on the attack early January… Time will tell and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

    test8

    wpoepo


  • Frigid Open To The Week; Wet Christmas?

    screen-shot-2016-12-19-at-8-58-45-amHighlights:

    • Bitterly cold to open the week
    • Mid week snow chances
    • Wet Christmas

    Bundle Up…The frigid theme of December 2016 continues as overnight lows dipped to between 3 and 6 below zero for most central IN reporting sites.  By the way, IND is running (6) degrees below average, month-to-date.  Needless to say, December 2016 (top) is nothing like December 2015 (bottom).

    conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2016

    conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015

    Though still chilly, temperatures will moderate into mid week before our next system rolls in.  Clouds will increase Wednesday and give way to a chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning as upper level energy rotates overhead.  Models likely will have to play “catch up” again with this mid week system and we’ll keep a close eye on data.

    As we look at Christmas, itself, a warmer regime looks to build in, courtesy of a southwest flow.  This is in response to the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle and driving a rather intense storm system northwest through the Plains states.  Blizzard conditions will likely result northwest of the low track while showers and thunderstorms develop in the warm sector, including the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley.  We’ll introduce a chance of thunderstorms into our Christmas Day forecast, as well.

    Longer-term, a rather significant pattern shift will continue to close the month of December into early January and this will drive a shift from the bitterly cold conditions to much milder times as we open 2017.  Winter fans, have no fear, the seeds are already being planted for a return to frigid and active times just beyond the new year…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Active Winter Pattern Rumbles Along…

    screen-shot-2016-12-15-at-7-44-16-pmHighlights:

    • Busy weather weekend
    • Fresh shot of bitterly cold air
    • Christmas week snow chances

    Buckle Up For A Busy Winter Pattern…Thursday featured the coldest December 15th high (13 degrees) in a whopping 27 years. Talk about impressive.  This was good for an amazing 26 degrees below average.  Let that sink in…

    We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the busy weekend before Christmas with a new round of challenges.  A couple of warm fronts will lift north through central IN Friday.  Snow showers may accompany the first warm front early Friday before the second warm front lifts north Friday night.  This will result in more widespread wintry precipitation, likely to begin as a period of light snow before a quick transition to sleet and freezing drizzle during the overnight.  Temperatures will warm overnight Friday and precipitation will change to light rain Saturday morning.  That’s when our attention turns to the first of two cold fronts that will sweep through the state.  The first cold front will lead to a quick changeover to sleet and snow Saturday evening (thinking between 6p-8p as of now).  As a secondary wave of moisture moves northeast along the boundary, expect a light accumulation of snow Saturday night.  The second cold front (arctic) will blow through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and lead to a frigid Sunday.  That 25 degree high you see Sunday will come at midnight as temperatures crash through the day.  Add in a stiff northwest wind and wind chill values will fall below zero (yet again) in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

    We’ll briefly calm things down during the early Christmas week period and remain cold.  Our next storm system is slated for a mid week arrival and could deliver a round of accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  More on that after this weekend system.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
    • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″


  • “Not Fit For Man Nor Beast;” Winter Issues This Weekend…

    screen-shot-2016-12-14-at-9-20-36-pmHighlights:

    • Bitter feel
    • Weekend storm
    • Reinforcing arctic air to open Christmas week

    Heavy Winter Gear Required…An arctic cold front slammed into central IN Wednesday evening with plummeting temperatures, strong and gusty (40 MPH) winds, blowing snow, and just a downright “rude” feel.  Those bitter conditions will remain through the close of the work week, including dangerous wind chills Thursday.  In fact, we still expect wind chills to fall into the 10-20 degree below zero range through the morning, and remain below zero most of the day.

    We’ll flip the page and turn our attention to our next storm system as we rumble into the weekend.  Clouds will increase Friday and moisture will begin to override the cold air locked in place at the surface by the evening and nighttime.  With sub-freezing air still present, this moisture will likely fall as a combination of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana Friday night.  Eventually, temperatures will warm (briefly) above freezing Saturday morning and allow precipitation to transition to light rain.  Before that takes place, slick road conditions could develop Friday night from the sleet/ freezing rain mixture.  Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on the latest data as it comes in.

    Almost as fast as we go above freezing Saturday, temperatures will begin to fall once again during the afternoon and evening as heavy, dense, arctic air “oozes” southeast.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride northeast along the pressing arctic cold front.  We expect precipitation to break out yet again Saturday evening and night, and fall as a wintry mix before ending as snow.  (Additional light ice and snow accumulation potential).

    Temperatures will fall through the day Sunday along with strong and gusty NW winds.  Wind chills will once again fall below zero Sunday evening into Monday morning…

    While the frigid conditions will “relax” as we go into the middle of Christmas week, we have an eyebrow raised for the potential of “fun and games” just beyond the current 7-day period.  Far too early for specifics, but the potential of wintry prospects around Christmas are alive and kicking…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
    • Snowfall:  1″ – 2″

     


  • Wednesday Morning Weather Rambles…

    1.)  Talk about number-busting cold.  With a fresh snowpack and clear skies overnight, temperatures plummeted (even colder than some high resolution data suggested yesterday evening). Officially, it’s the coldest December morning in Indianapolis since Christmas Eve 2013.  We note even a few communities below zero (talking about you Crawfordsville, Zionsville, and Greenfield).

    Even colder air rushes in tonight behind a secondary arctic cold front.  Expect an increase in cloudiness, scattered snow flurries, and strengthening NW winds by late afternoon and early evening.  As the reinforcing bitter air pours into the region, wind chill values will fall to 10-20 below zero tonight into Thursday morning.  That’s dangerous stuff, friends, and requires limited time outdoors.  The National Weather Service has issued a *Wind Chill Advisory* 10p this evening until 11a Thursday.

    gfs_windchill_indy_62.)  Our next storm will approach Friday evening. Clouds will increase and thicken as the day gives way to evening and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread central IN Friday night.  With snow on the ground and the recent bitter blast, we have concerns the cold air won’t be “dislodged” as quickly as last weekend.  The end result may be a period of accumulating freezing rain/ sleet Friday night into early Saturday morning.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

    nam_ptype_slp_mc_25Regardless, icy precipitation will transition to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures briefly surge above freezing.  “Brief” is the key word there as temperatures plummet Saturday night, courtesy of fresh arctic air oozing back in.  A secondary wave of moisture may result in additional wintry issues Saturday night.  Additionally, with sharply colder air returning, “flash freeze” concerns loom Saturday night, as well.

    3.)  Another “lobe” of arctic air will plunge into the area Saturday night and help set-up a frigid close to the weekend.  We’ll have to be on sub-zero watch again.

    d44.)  Our attention then shifts to what may very well be an active Christmas week in the weather department.  We continue to think the frigid times of this week will relax.  That said, it’ll remain cold enough with a favorable storm track to result in wintry issues as Christmas nears.  Far too early for specifics with this 10+ days out, but keep it in the back of your mind that the weather pattern continues to look active and at least present a threat of wintry precipitation at times Christmas week.

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10