• Category Archives Christmas/ Thanksgiving
  • Cold Only Gets Colder…

    Highlights:

    • Light snow chances
    • Frigid times
    • Bitter close to 2017

    Heavy Winter Gear Required…First and foremost, we want to wish each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas and a continued blessed and safe holiday season.

    The upcoming forecast period will be dominated by bitterly cold conditions.  At times, jabs of dangerous cold will penetrate into the Ohio Valley.  With arctic high pressure attempting to dominate the pattern, it’ll “out muscle” the potential of any sort of major widespread winter storm threats.  With that said, it won’t eliminate snow chances altogether and we must remain on our toes for the chances of a more impactful event over the weekend.

    Beforehand, light scattered snow showers are possible late tonight into Tuesday morning as arctic reinforcements blow into town.  Two additional opportunities for snow will present themselves Thursday night into Friday morning, and, as mentioned above, just before the New Year.

    Keep the heavy winter gear handy through the forecast period as Old Man Winter make his presence felt.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ to 3″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • An “Appetizer” To Christmas Eve’s “Main Course…”

    In general, northern ‘burbs picked up between 1″ to 3″ of wet snow earlier this morning before drier conditions arrived for the afternoon hours.  A couple of reports include Whitestown with 1.6″, Carmel with 2″, and Lebanon with 2.5″.  A sharp cut-off with slushy coatings to less than 1″ made it as far south as the city, itself.  Today’s event will be viewed as the “appetizer” to Christmas Eve’s “main course.”

    Vigorous upper level energy will track through the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve afternoon into the evening, itself.

    Snow will begin to overspread the state, especially north of the I-70 corridor during the mid-to-late morning hours and we expect a steady snow to fall across the northern half of the state throughout the majority of the day.  A period of moderate to heavy snow should develop during the mid-to-late afternoon, continuing into the evening hours across central Indiana.  Road conditions will begin to really deteriorate during this time frame as surface temperatures fall into the 20s.

    Eventually, snow will end from west (around 8p) to east (around midnight) tomorrow night, but not before depositing a widespread swath of 3″-5″ for areas generally north of I-70.  For the city, itself, we think 2″ to 3″ is a good call, with generally an inch, or less across far southern portions of the state.

    Don’t be surprised if enough Christmas “magic” results in localized heavier totals with potential banding that develops tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.  All in all, this will be a classic, picturesque snow event for Christmas Eve.  Hoosiers will wake up Christmas morning with a fresh blanket of white.

    We have additional wintry fun and games to track later next week!


  • “It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas…”

    Highlights:

    • Wet snow today
    • New snow maker for Christmas Eve
    • Turning bitterly cold

    Festive Forecast…Rain changed to wet snow for northwestern ‘burbs between 4a-5a and the transition from wet to white will continue to progress southeast through the morning.  A period of heavy, wet snow will fall through mid and late morning before precipitation begins to taper off.  Our going snowfall forecast from yesterday continues to work with this event (for most it’s a slushy coating to 1″ in and around Indianapolis, increasing to a couple inches north).  We experienced our high temperature for the day shortly after midnight.

    Attention will then quickly shift to a new snow maker arriving Christmas Eve.  The day will start dry, but snow will quickly develop as we progress into the afternoon.  At times, snow will come down at a moderate clip and provide a classic setting for your festivities tomorrow evening.  (We’ll have a fresh discussion posted later this afternoon for this event).  Travel safely and leave extra time to reach your destination, as snow will accumulate on roadways.  Additionally, we’ll add wind into the mix tomorrow night into Christmas Day with fresh cold air advection.

    Speaking of Christmas, if you’re anticipating Santa to deliver outdoor gifts, you’ll want to plan to bundle up as you head out to enjoy the new toys.  It’ll be a dry, but very cold Christmas.

    Cold will remain the weather word to sum up next week and we’ll target the end of next week for the potential next winter event.  It’s a busy, fun pattern if you like winter!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • Dreaming Of A White Christmas?

    A busy winter pattern is on our doorsteps and the first of a series of accumulating snow events arrives Saturday morning for central Indiana.  A cold front will settle south across the state this evening, allowing colder air to filter in.  Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will track northeast from the TN Valley into the lower OH Valley.  This will result in more widespread moisture moving into the region overnight into Saturday morning.  On the northern periphery of this precipitation, a changeover to wet snow is anticipated.  A window of opportunity is present for a narrow, but heavy wet snow band to “thump” for a couple hours and potentially may make roads slick due to the intensity of snow within this narrow zone.  Given the setup and dynamics in play, this type of event has bust potential written all over it, but this is our best idea for a first call.

    A more widespread, “uniform” (easier to forecast, as well :-)) snow event will arrive Christmas Eve.  Upper level energy will cross the Ohio Valley and combine with arctic air in place to maximize moisture production.  We expect an expanding area of snow to encompass most of the state Christmas Eve, likely becoming most widespread Christmas Eve afternoon.  With cold air in place, roads will likely get slick in spots so plan accordingly with your travels.

    The hits keep coming as we progress into next week.  An additional accumulating snow event may arrive Christmas night into Tuesday, followed by a more widespread and potentially major event late next week…

    More later!


  • Welcome Back Winter!

    Highlights:

    • Mild open to winter
    • Christmas weekend snow
    • Cold returns

    Pleasant Open To Winter…It’s a state divided today as clouds dominate across northern portions while the majority of central and southern IN will enjoy plenty of Vitamin D!  It’ll also be unseasonably mild today and Friday as a southerly air flow returns in advance of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will deliver spotty showers Friday and an area of low pressure will track along the boundary Saturday.  This will result in more widespread rain overspreading the region Friday night into the day Saturday. As colder air begins to filter into the region, we’re still thinking a narrow band of wet snow will develop along the northern shield of precipitation Saturday morning.

    Turning our attention to Christmas Eve shows upper level energy moving across the Ohio Valley and this will likely result in an expanding area of snow across the region.  If trends continue, we’ll have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season Friday morning.  Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?

    A cold pattern will engulf the region next week and we’ll await the middle and latter portions of the week for the potential of additional wintry mischief.  From this distance, it appears this very well may be a significant event.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Touching Base On Wednesday Evening: Busy Winter Pattern Awaits…

    Before we get into some of the latest thinking concerning the weather around Christmas, we want to reiterate the pending pattern change is one that we haven’t had the pleasure of “enjoying” over the past few winters.  Our idea is that a prolonged significantly colder than normal pattern is with us to close 2017 and continues into (at least) the first few weeks of January.  At times, and especially if we can get a healthy snowpack down, temperatures may become severely cold.  Speaking of snowpack, winter storms and rumors of storms will come fast and furious in this pattern and it’ll be important you keep abreast of the latest forecast as you go about your holiday travels this year.  It’ll be very, very interesting to see how the general public perceives the coming few weeks as winter conditions will be much more impactful when compared to the past few years.  Needless to say, we’ve alerted our snow clients that it’s most certainly time to stock up on the coffee and other energy drinks…some long days (and nights) are likely in this pattern down the road.

    Now to the shorter-term:

    I.)  Our first winter weather maker will arrive on the scene Saturday.  Guidance today has trended colder, overall, and suggests we need to be on guard for the potential of a narrow, yet possibly heavy, band of wet snow developing on the northern side of the precipitation shield Saturday morning.  As of now, central Indiana into western and central Ohio should keep close tabs on forecast developments.  We’ll have to “hone in” on overall snow placement over the next 24-48 hours, but that’s the best we can do from this distance.

    II.)  Additional upper level energy will rotate across the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve and this, combined with arctic air pushing into the region, should maximize moisture production and lead to a period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve afternoon into early Christmas Day.  This energy should feature some Christmas “magic” and be enough to provide a more widespread light accumulation across the region (when compared to Saturday).

    III.)  As we look forward to middle and latter parts of next week, the pattern screams potential is on the table for a more widespread, significant winter storm (Plains to the Northeast).  While obviously early on in the game, the overall pattern does back up the idea presented by modeling.

    The wintry hits don’t stop there, but we’ll save those details for later posts.  Make it a great Wednesday evening!


  • Mild Air On Borrowed Time; Turning Wintry…

    Highlights:

    • Dry midweek
    • Rain changes to snow
    • Turning bitter

    Changes Await…The midweek stretch will feature dry and unseasonably mild conditions.  A storm system will deluge the Tennessee Valley today, but will be too far south to impact our weather.  We’ll shift our air flow around from the northeast today to more of a southerly direction Thursday afternoon.  This is in advance of our next storm system that will deliver showers as we wrap up the last work week before Christmas.

    While confidence is beginning to increase in the evolution of things as we head into Christmas weekend, important details are still a bit “iffy” and will require additional fine tuning over the next day, or so.  With that disclaimer, here’s how we see things playing out:

    A cold front will slip southeast Friday night and a surface low will move northeast along the boundary Saturday.  The general consensus this morning is that this wave of low pressure will track further southeast when compared to yesterday’s data.  This would yield a colder solution, locally, and subsequent faster changeover to a period of wet snow Saturday.  In fact, if trends continue, we may have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season for Saturday.  Hope for a White Christmas is very much alive and kicking.

    MUCH colder air will drill southeast Christmas Eve and with enough upper level energy in place, we forecast an additional period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve.  Bitterly cold temperatures will take control for Christmas and into early next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″