• Category Archives Bill
  • Friday Morning Rambles…

    1.) A wet day is ahead for central & southern IN as the combination of a stalled front and Bill’s remnant moisture work in. Rain has already been heavy just north of I-70, including 1.5″-2″ just since midnight. 

    2.) Most of Bill’s moisture targets southern IN tonight through Saturday. Flash flooding concerns are high because of this. For us here across central parts of the state, expect a mostly dry Saturday, including the possibility we may even work in sunshine tomorrow afternoon and evening.

    3.) Active pattern remains! We’ll watch for a couple rounds of potential strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, including damaging winds and more heavy rain. Stay tuned as we pin point timing with these storm complexes. 

    4.) Cooler pattern to open July? Mid to long range data continues to highlight a cooler regime by the 8-10 day period. After all of the recent rain and humidity, I know this is music to many ears (yours truly included). 

    Much more later today. Make it a great Friday! 


  • Afternoon Storms; Watching Bill’s Remnants…

    Screen Shot 2015-06-18 at 7.37.07 AMHighlights:

    • Afternoon showers and storms
    • Watching Bill’s remnants
    • Active pattern remains

    The day is dawning with overcast skies and humid conditions. Dew points in the lower 70s coupled with lower 70 degree air temperatures have things feeling very tropical.  Showers and thunderstorms will fire later this afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe. With the moisture-laden air mass in place, torrential rainfall will remain likely with storms.

    As we shift into Friday and Saturday all eyes will be on the remnant moisture of what once was Tropical Storm Bill. Latest model data focuses in on southern IN for the greatest threat of widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, including rainfall amounts of 3″ to 4″ in spots. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the precise track of Bill’s remnants, but, as of now, folks downstate are at highest risk of flooding problems.

    As we move into next week the active and stormy times continue.  There are questions in regards to an expanding heat dome.  Latest data has backed down dramatically on the potential heat next week.  With the wet ground in place it’s hard to argue with that idea.

    Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)


  • AG Weather Report: 6.17.15

    June has gotten off to a warm start across the region.

      It’s been a wet month (to date) across northern regions of our #AGwx viewing area. 
      

     Bill’s remnant moisture will lead to heavy rain across the southern regions late week into the weekend. We’re particularly talking about southern IN and OH where it’s been dry month-to-date. Questions remain as to how far north Bill’s remnant moisture makes it, but, for now we think areas under greatest risk of heavy rain and flash flood potential include the southern half of IL, IN, and OH during the Friday through Saturday time frame (west to east). Where the precise remnant moisture tracks, locally heavy totals of rain to the tune of 4″-5″ can be expected. 

      Over the past (7) days heaviest rains have fallen across northern regions of the viewing area (several 5″+ amounts).
      Looking ahead, the big story next week will be the heat. Even with a wet ground in place, expect lower to middle 90s- especially mid to late next week. Couple the moisture locked in the ground and the “sauna feel” will be in full effect.
      Note some ensemble members see a weakness in the ridge and the CFSv2 (below) suggests something similar. We’ll have to be on the look out for storm complexes rotating southeast around a budding and transitioning hot dome west.
      As we move deeper into July the European weeklies suggest the upper ridge currently dominating the southeast presses west and flexes it’s muscle over the Rockies and 4 Corners region by early to mid July. This would imply a cooler time with periodic storm complexes riding the periphery of the ridge, locally.


  • Tuesday Evening “Catch Up!”

    Rain and embedded thunder returns after a drier day, overall: Tuesday was a much drier day, overall, and sunshine built into central IN this afternoon to make for a very nice evening.  Unfortunately, the vitamin D won’t stick around as clouds return tonight and give way to a rather large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms during the overnight (say after 2-3a for most of central IN).  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.  Steady rains should diminish during the mid to late morning Wednesday, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast throughout the day.

    All eyes on Bill:  There really aren’t any changes in regards to our thinking on Bill and the eventual impact on our general region from his remnants.  We’re focusing in on the second half of Friday through the first half of Saturday for the most likely time period we may deal with heavy rainfall and local flash flood conditions.  We stress that this isn’t a forecast “locked in stone” by any stretch of the imagination, but the overall weather pattern continues to argue for Bill’s remnants to pivot around the periphery of an upper ridge over the southeast.  Latest forecast data suggests precipitable water values of 2.3″ – 2.5″ approaching central IN Friday afternoon.  Needless to say, locally very heavy rain will fall for some folks.  As we’ve mentioned, we’ll have to fine tune the timing and precise track of heaviest rains/ greatest flood threat as time draws closer.  The way things stand now, we certainly recommend keeping a close eye on Bill, and if you live near creeks, streams, or rivers, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to review your safety plan in the event flooding or flash flooding develops.

    Hot and humid pattern:  Mid to long range data is pointing towards the hottest air of the year arriving next week.  The wet ground will thwart the heat from reaching even hotter levels, but lower to middle 90s for highs still appear like a good bet.  Speaking of wet ground, that’ll help create a tremendously humid feel next week, as well.


  • Watching Bill…

    Tropical Storm Bill will make landfall later this morning along the central TX coast. 

       
     Models handle the track of Bill differently in the days ahead, but we must continue to remain on our toes. The overall weather pattern favors Bill’s remnant moisture moving in the general direction of the Ohio Valley late week and this weekend. That southeast ridge and associated hot dome will “sling shot” Bill’s moisture north and eventually northeast in the days ahead. 

      That said, there are issues with timing and the precise track of Bill’s moisture as you can see below, per the GFS and Canadian. 

       

      

    In the shorter term, north-central IN can expect a brief break in the rain and storm action today as the main action shifts along and south of I-70 this afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, the unsettled times and heavy rain and storm threat returns for all Wednesday. 

    Much more later!