• Category Archives Autumn
  • Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

    I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

    Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
    Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

    II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

    III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

    IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…


  • Warm And Muggy; “Splash And Dash” Storms…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered storms
    • Saturday showers
    • Surge of heat ahead of a late week cool down next week

    More Dry Time Than Stormy…A warm and moist southwesterly air flow will have things feeling quite muggy today.  This tropical feel will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms by evening, continuing into tonight.  While everyone won’t get wet today, those that do have the potential of picking up a quick 1″ in a short period of time.  A cold front will cross the state Thursday and will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going.  While this isn’t a uniform soaking, we’ll take what we can get as things have been bone dry around these parts lately.

    After a quiet and slightly cooler Friday, an upper level disturbance will deliver another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday.  Dry weather will return to wrap up the weekend Sunday.

    Looking ahead, a surge of heat, albeit brief, will have things feeling quite toasty around the Mid West early next week.  We think we flirt with, or exceed, the 90° mark both Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest.  Behind the front, data still paints a much cooler regime for the second half of next week; fall-like!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

    High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

    High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

    As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

    Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

    Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

    As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

    What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.


  • Wet, Chilly Second Half Of The Weekend…

    We’ve still got time to soak up this superb Saturday weather, but clouds will continue to increase from now through sunset- eventually lowering and thickening tonight.  Temperatures have moderated under the early August sun from the crisp start in the lower 50s for most, but we’re still around 10° below average this afternoon.

    Sunday will feature rather damp and unseasonably cool conditions.  The day will start dry (going to take a little while to moisten up the air mass), but showers will arrive on the scene mid-to-late morning.

    As we progress into the afternoon and evening hours, showers will expand in coverage and intensity to more of a widespread, uniform type rain event.  A good ole-fashioned soaking appears to be in the works Sunday afternoon-evening.

    When you factor in an already established unseasonably cool pattern with our approaching rain event then you have the makings for another early October-like feel Sunday that will feature temperatures struggling to make it out of the 60s for highs.

    By the time the rain comes to an end Monday morning we think most central IN gauges can expect to pick up 0.75″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts under any thunderstorm that develops.  Drier weather will return Monday afternoon and continue through the middle of next week.

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  • Catching Up On A “Crisp” August Evening…

    One sure would be hard-pressed to find an August evening that is more fall-like than today.  Heck, a check of temperatures even at the 3 o’clock hour across central IN revealed levels more typical of early October.  – Your’s truly isn’t complaining. 😉  As I write this post just before 10p Friday evening, I’m fireside with a temperature in the upper 50s in Whitestown.  Call me crazy, but I’ll take it- even if it is a couple months early!

    All across the Midwest temperatures are running 10° to 15° below normal at the 9p hour.

    As we look ahead, Saturday is certainly the pick of the weekend.  Mixed clouds and sun will be with us for the balance of the day before we turn increasingly overcast late.  While temperatures will remain significantly below normal, it’ll be a very refreshing day and feel more like early-September (mid-upper 70s).

    As mentioned, clouds will increase, lower, and thicken Saturday evening and widespread rain will follow.  This is all in association with our next approaching storm system that promises to result in a rather damp and unseasonably cool second half of the weekend.  Forecast radar timestamps Sunday morning into the afternoon show the overall widespread coverage of rain showers and embedded thunder.  We suggest indoor weekend plans Sunday.

    Unsettled weather will continue into early Monday across the state.  By the time all is said and done, rainfall totals of 1″-1.5″ can be expected, including locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms develop.  Additionally, with the clouds and wet weather Sunday, temperatures will likely remain in the 60s most of the day.

    As we push into the new work week, drier air will regain control of our region and high pressure should provide a stretch of pleasant (unseasonably cool) conditions through midweek.

    Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the second half of next week as our next storm system approaches.  While we’ll moderate back to seasonal levels late-week, data suggests another blast of refreshing air will blow into town next weekend.  It’s far too early to signal “summer over,” but the early blasts of fall-like air do have to “raise an eyebrow” for what autumn may provide the region.  We’re in the camp of believing central IN is in position for earlier than normal frost risks…  Much more on that later.

    Reinforcing cool air establishes itself in the 8-10 day period.


  • This Is August?!

    Highlights:

    • Fall-like feel to close the week
    • Weekend shower chances
    • Unseasonably refreshing pattern

    Early October Or Early August?!  A cold front will sweep through the state Friday morning.  A line of showers and embedded thunder will accompany the FROPA (frontal passage) before a dramatic wind shift to the northwest.  Unseasonably cool air will filter into central Indiana Friday afternoon and keep most in the upper 60s (69° is our average high October 5th).  Just remarkable stuff for the first Friday in August…

    A cool, crisp start Saturday will pave way for comfortable afternoon conditions under mixed clouds and sun.  Flipping the page to the second half of the weekend, we’re going to have to hit the rain chance a little harder with this forecast update, including a rather overcast day.  Periodic showers will keep temperatures well below normal.

    Early showers will be with us Monday before a drier air mass builds into the state for the midweek stretch.  Additionally, reinforcing cool air will flow in here Monday night and set the stage for simply gorgeous conditions around these parts next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″