• Category Archives Arctic Cold
  • Turning Warmer, But Unsettled…

    Highlights:

    • Another cold morning
    • Turning unsettled
    • Warmer heading into early next week

    Warmer, But Rain Chances Return…Before we enjoy the warmer temperatures to close the week, we have one more very cold morning to go through.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods are once again starting the day in the mid to upper 20s.  Though we’ll add more clouds to our Thursday forecast (compared to all of that Wednesday sunshine), it won’t prevent temperatures from moderating close to seasonal levels later this afternoon.

    Though we’ll mention a quick passing shower chance Friday, most of the day should be dry and the bigger story will actually be temperatures that approach 70° by the afternoon with periods of sunshine.  Sounds like a recipe for getting out of the office early and finding a local patio, huh?!

    Unfortunately, shower chances will be on the uptick this weekend and while it won’t rain the entire time, really any time of the weekend is fair game for the potential of a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm.  As of now, best shower coverage should be Sunday.

    Shower and thunderstorms chances continue early next week (Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning) before drier air and slightly cooler temperatures return the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Wednesday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  Temperatures this morning are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago.  Many central IN neighborhoods are waking up to temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

    2.)  Speaking of cold, to-date, March is running slightly colder than average (by 1.1°).  Note the spring and summer-like warmth across the SW.  “Pieces” of that warmth will eject northeast in modified fashion late March into April.

    3.)  High pressure will supply a dry, but cold Wednesday.  Highs will run close to 10° below average (lower 40s), but at least we’ll enjoy the sun!

    4.)  Temperatures will begin to warm as we progress through the latter portions of the week.  We’ll be near seasonal norms Thursday (low 50s), and above normal Friday into the weekend (mid-upper 60s).  With the warmer air, rain and storm chances will also be on the increase.  As of now, we target best rain chances late Saturday into Sunday.  A couple thunderstorms are also possible.  Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ seem like a good bet with locally heavier amounts.

    5.)  This is just the beginning of an active stretch of weather to wrap up the month of March.  (3) additional storms will have to be monitored next week.  Accordingly, precipitation anomalies will run above normal.


  • Weekend Improvements…

    Highlights:

    • Chilly Saturday
    • Brighter Sunday
    • Unsettled week ahead

    Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

    Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

    A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

    Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.


  • Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

    1.)  All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time.  Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in.  Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.

    2.)  It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.

    3.)  Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s.  That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days.  Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.

    4.)  Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day.  A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening.  A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning.  “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total.  By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.

    5.)  We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well.  A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns.  High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).

    6.)  Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month.  Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings.  Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air.  From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.


  • In The Deep Freeze…

    Highlights:

    • Morning snow showers end
    • Slowly moderating temperatures
    • Wet St. Patrick’s Day
    • Sunshine returns this weekend

    Heavy Winter Gear Required…The calendar may say mid-March, but Old Man Winter refuses to go away without having the last word.  To put things into perspective, our forecast high of 32° today is colder than our average low for the 15th (33°)!  To make matters worse, gusty north winds are pushing the wind chill factor into the single digits this morning.  Bundle up!  Moving forward, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue through the morning hours before ending as we progress through the afternoon.

    After a cold start Thursday, a moderating trend will develop by afternoon.  Plentiful sunshine should be with us Thursday before clouds increase late in the day in advance of a warm front lifting northeast.  Showers will develop Friday (could begin as a touch of freezing rain, but not expecting problems Thursday night/ early Friday morning), but temperatures will actually reach seasonal levels despite the wet, breezy conditions.

    Sunshine returns this weekend and though it’ll be cooler Saturday when compared to St. Patrick’s Day, considering how cold we’ve been of late, it won’t feel that bad. Early morning snow showers will target eastern and northeastern portions of the state before sunshine returns.

    The next weather maker will provide showers Monday before we focus in on the middle of next week with potential of a more significant storm to deal with…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Quiet Start Gives Way To Localized Snow Squalls This Afternoon…

    Tuesday is off to a frigid, but quiet start to the day.  Temperatures are in the upper 10s for most central Indiana neighborhoods with sunshine to start the day.  Gusty north winds are putting our wind chills into the single digits this morning.

    As we progress through the afternoon hours, clouds will increase and scattered snow showers will develop.  Highs will remain below freezing today- generally in the upper 20s to around 30.

    With very cold air aloft, a lobe of upper level energy, and some lake enhancement, scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.  Additionally, snow squall parameters are high and locally intense bursts of snow can also be expected as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.  These won’t impact everyone, but where they do occur, expect rapidly reduced visibility and a quick accumulation.  Forecast radar shows this potential as we move into the afternoon hours, with a couple of lake effect streamers continuing Wednesday morning.

    Forecast radar 5p.
    Forecast radar 3a.

    Wednesday will be another frigid day, especially by March standards.  We’ll focus in on the morning hours for the most widespread snow shower activity with quieter times expected as we move through the day.


  • A Wintry Week…

    Highlights:

    • Snow develops
    • Bitterly cold air for March
    • St. Patrick’s Day showers

    Snow Develops…Drier air is “eating away” at the snow shield as it attempts to advance eastward this morning.  Eventually, we’ll moisten the atmosphere up enough to allow snow to push into the greater Indianapolis region by late morning.  Snow will accumulate this morning, but marginal temperatures, that high March sun angle, and the fact most of the snow will be falling during the afternoon, we don’t anticipate accumulation issues this afternoon.  Reinforcing cold air will filter back into the region tonight and last through mid week.  With this late season arctic air, additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will continue.  With all of that said, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing accumulation forecast.  Expect an inch, or less, for the city, itself, increasing to 2″-5″ for north-central Indiana (where lake effect will add to the totals) for storm totals through Wednesday.

    Dry conditions return late Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold will continue.  Our next storm system arrives on the scene St. Patrick’s Day and with blustery, chilly conditions in place, showers added to the mix will feature “raw” weather conditions.  As it stands now, we are going with a more optimistic approach for the weekend, including a dry forecast with increasing sunshine.  After the cold week ahead, we will have earned it!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Work Week Opens Snowy…

    Highlights:

    • Unseasonably cold
    • Snowy Monday
    • Cold week ahead

    Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

    A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

    Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″


  • Winter Finally Shows Up…

    Highlights:

    • Much colder than average
    • Snow prospects to open the week
    • Busy pattern continues

    Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

    Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

    Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

    Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Extended Period Of Unseasonably Cold Air…

    Today will begin a rather extended period of unseasonably chilly air that will grip the region.  It’s not until the latter portions of next week that we should begin to see slowly moderating temperatures.

    The reason for this is a persistent trough setting up over the Great Lakes and eastern portions of the country.  From time to time, individual disturbances will come racing along in the fast northwest flow aloft and help to reinforce the cold and also create snow potential.

    Forecast models continue to show an eastern trough into the middle parts of next week.

     

    This is an impressively cold pattern for so late in the season.

    This is the type pattern that will promote multiple nights in the teens over the upcoming week.  We forecast coldest nights to be Saturday night, Sunday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night.  Each has the potential to send neighborhoods into the middle-upper teens.

    As far as snow goes, we still are keeping an eye on the early stages of the work week.  We’ll fine tune things this weekend, but models continue to show energy diving southeast Monday that would help snow overspread the region during the day, continuing into Tuesday morning.  This time of year, snowfall rates and time of day means a world of difference between snow flying in the air, versus accumulating.  The potential is there for light accumulation Monday night as reinforcing cold air pours in.

    Stay tuned!  Much more later!