• Category Archives AG Report
  • Pleasant Weekend Gives Way To A Stormy Week Ahead…

    It was a stormy Friday across central Indiana, including hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.  Thankfully, as we open the weekend, weather conditions are much more pleasant.  The surface front that helped trigger the bumpy close to the work week has pushed south and is allowing a much more pleasant (much drier and slightly cooler) air mass to ooze into the region.  With the exception of patchy fog across southern Indiana, skies are mostly sunny.

    Patchy fog will burn off by 10a across southern Indiana.
    A cooler and less humid feel is greeting us out the door this morning.

    Pleasant weather will remain through the majority of Sunday, but we’ll begin to notice an uptick in humidity late in the day.  This is a harbinger of things to come as a true tropical feel lifts back north.  Factor in the increasing moisture levels (it’ll feel oppressive by mid-week) with increasing amounts of energy and instability and big storms will likely result.

    A moisture-rich air mass will engulf the region much of the upcoming work week.

    The core of the heat will be centered over the western half of the country next week and with a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to remain on guard for individual disturbances tracking southeast into the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  These will help trigger more widespread storm coverage from time-to-time through the week.  Similar to the storms yesterday, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are the biggest concerns with these storm complexes.  7-day rainfall totals through late-week will feature widespread 2″-3″ across central Indiana, including locally heavier amounts of 3″-6″ in spots where storms train.  We’ll have to sure-up specific storm timing as we get closer.

    As we look ahead, timing, once again, may be our friend, as modeling currently suggests a drier regime returns by next weekend.

    Make it a great Saturday, friends!  More later!

  • Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…

    Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis.  The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.

    Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:

    • Wednesday into Thursday
    • Saturday into Sunday
    • Middle parts of the following week

    While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half.  Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved.  That’s just the way this time of year is.  With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.

    As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood.  Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week.  Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern.  Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things.  Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…

  • Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…

    Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot.  We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.

    Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.

    However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one.  This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.

    The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.

    The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.

    Updated 7-day out later this afternoon!  Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!

  • JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

    The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

    • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
    • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
    • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

    Week 1:

    The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

    Week 2:

    The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

    Weeks 3-4

    While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

  • Unseasonably Chilly; Another Heavy Rain Maker Blows Into Town…

    Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday morning and give way to an expanding rain shield late morning into the early afternoon hours.  Initially this rain won’t be heavy, but will begin to increase in overall coverage and intensity as we progress into the nighttime hours.

    Forecast radar around lunchtime shows rain increasing across central IN.
    Rain becomes heavy Wednesday night.

    The culprit behind this new heavy rain maker is a deepening surface low pressure system that will slowly track from Arkansas (Wednesday night) northeast along the Ohio River (Thursday) and into Ohio (Friday).  Not only will this spread heavy rain across central Indiana, but will also result in strong and gusty easterly winds Thursday into Friday, and unseasonably cold air.  In fact, temperatures Friday will likely remain in the 40s across central IN with wind chills in the 30s.  Add in that wind-driven rain and we have the makings for an UGLY day.

    Periods of heavy rain will fall on the region Wednesday night into Friday and by the time all is said and done (Saturday night) widespread rainfall of 3″ is likely across most of central Indiana.  Locally heavier totals will be possible where the most persistent heavy rain bands set-up shop.

    We’ll begin to dry things out Saturday night into Sunday, but unseasonably chilly air will remain.  Lows over the weekend into early next week will grow cold enough to allow patchy frost to develop in outlying communities.  We think low to mid 30s will be common across the region Sunday and Monday mornings.

  • Keeping A Close Eye On Midweek…

    For the purpose of this post, we’ll focus on our next storm system that, at the very least, promises to deal more wet weather to central Indiana come Wednesday night into Friday.  Additionally, this will be a much cooler storm with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s during the day Thursday, as gusty easterly winds reach 30+ MPH.  At the extreme, this could be another event that deposits widespread 2″+ rainfall totals across central Indiana…

    The latest 7-day precipitation anomaly off this afternoon’s GEFS shows the wet pattern that will remain intact over the upcoming (7) day period.

    The individual GFS ensemble members are truly concerning, especially given just how wet we currently are.  We note some members suggest additional 3″-4″ totals- with over 50% of that coming from our midweek storm.

    We’ll keep a close eye on model data over the next couple of days, but as of now, we suggest planning for additional hefty rain totals in the Wednesday night through Friday time frame.  Also of interest will be the extreme cool associated with this storm.  As previously mentioned, the majority of the day Thursday will be spent in the 40s (more like early-March than early-May).  Factor in a gusty easterly breeze and we’ll have the makings for a truly “raw” weather day across the region.

  • Word On The Weeklies…

    New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

    The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

    Week 1:

    Week 2:

    Weeks 3-4:

    The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

  • Looking Ahead Into Early April…

    Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running near seasonal norms from a temperature standpoint (0.50° above normal).  Chill has dominated the northern tier and eastern third of the country.

    Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date.  Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.

    A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:

    As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist.  This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either.  There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.

    By Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, shower chances will begin to increase and that will set the stage for a wet close to the work week as numerous showers and embedded thunder move across the region Thursday into Friday.  This is courtesy of a storm system “bowling” through to our south.  This won’t be a severe weather maker for our neck of the woods, but will serve to create a rather damp and gloomy regime during the aforementioned period.

    However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend.  Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.

    That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period.  This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame.  From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.

    Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average).  Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month.  With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month.  Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.

  • Looking Ahead To Spring…

    Meteorological spring begins in a few days (runs March through May).  We’ve already touched on the expected busy severe weather season and want to dedicate this post towards looking deeper into the weather pattern and the resulting precipitation and temperature impacts.

    The latest longer-range data continues to be in very good agreement on the upper air pattern.  In short, the balance of the spring season looks to offer up a continued theme of warmer than average temperatures for our region.  (Not saying we won’t have to deal with a wintry “trick or two” over the first couple weeks of March).  When we look at spring, as a whole, we believe it’ll be one known more for the warmth and active, stormy times.

    CFSv2 March Temperature Anomalies
    CFSv2 April Temperature Anomalies
    CFSv2 May Temperature Anomalies
    JAMSTEC March through May Temperature Anomalies

    The latest JMA monthly idea is one that has to raise an eye brow as it would paint an early summer across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  Anomalous warmth (true summer-like air) would develop with a strong ridge over the Great Lakes and northeast.  This is something we’ll have to keep an eye on.  A big caveat here is how strong and quickly the coming El Nino develops.  It should be noted, El Nino years can feature some of the hottest air early, not late, in the summer season (relative to averages), and the JMA would, indeed, yield an early summer with such a look.

    JMA May Forecast 500mb Pattern

    It should also be noted modeling is suggesting a wet look, locally, especially during the early portions of spring.  The JAMSTEC and JMA are particularly bullish on a wet pattern.

    JAMSTEC March through May Precipitation Anomalies
    JMA March through May Precipitation Anomalies

    The CFSv2 hits the wet March hard before a drier regime mid and late spring.

    March Precipitation Anomalies
    April Precipitation Anomalies
    May Precipitation Anomalies

    In closing, we seem to have a bit of a bumpy ride in front of us as meteorological spring begins.  While Old Man Winter hasn’t been seen much as of late, don’t be shocked if he makes his presence felt a few more times through the first half of March- both from a cold and snow perspective.  That said, data really points towards more of an overall warm regime developing the second half of the month, and continuing through the majority of spring, for that matter.  We’re keeping a close eye on May for an early summer-like feel to take hold, locally.  Subsequent JMA updates will be monitored closely.  We also remain confident of an active severe weather season.  Note the tendency of model data (above) to pull the mean trough position to the northwest March into April.  The clash of late-season wintry conditions west, combined with unseasonably warm temperatures across the east (not to mention the warmer than average Gulf of Mexico) likely will equal busy times as we progress through the spring severe weather season.