• Category Archives 7-Day Outlook
  • Pleasant Now; Very Cool, Wet (For Some), And Windy Close To The Week…

    Highlights:

    • Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
    • Harvey’s remnants impact the region
    • Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day

    Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather.  Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.

    Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants.  The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds.  While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state.  Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely).  The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday.  Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready.

    Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.

    We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself.  Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday.  Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week.  Get set for an October-like feel…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″


  • Wet Start To The Work Week; Keeping A Close Eye On Harvey…

    Highlights:

    • Wet open to the work week
    • Late week backdoor cold front
    • Where will Harvey’s remnants track?

    More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months.  Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants.  It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.

    Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley.  While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet.  Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems.  A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday.  A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.

    Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast.  There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east.  We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley.  With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

    Highlights:

    • Rain and storm chances increase
    • Late week cold front
    • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

    Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

    Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

    A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

    Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Pleasant Close To The Week; Harvey Questions…

    Highlights:

    • Dry and unseasonably cool close to the week
    • Shower chances return
    • Watching Harvey

    Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure.  This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.

    A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley.  Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week.  Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.

    Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so.  Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective.  He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today.  It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough.  Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week.  Stay tuned.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Tuesday Storms Then Much Cooler…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
    • Early fall-like feel arrives
    • Dry weather returns

    Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region.  Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours).  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.

    That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend.  High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine.  Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week.  This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.

    Tropics:  Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico.  Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches.  An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″


  • Hot, Humid Weather Gives Way To Much Cooler Times…

    Highlights:

    • Hot and humid open to the week
    • Scattered early week storms
    • Much cooler and less humid times loom

    Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week.  While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday.  Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain.  Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.

    Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms.  However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana.  We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night.  Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally.  Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer.  We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now.  Stay tuned.

    Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September.  Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.75″


  • Warm And Muggy; “Splash And Dash” Storms…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered storms
    • Saturday showers
    • Surge of heat ahead of a late week cool down next week

    More Dry Time Than Stormy…A warm and moist southwesterly air flow will have things feeling quite muggy today.  This tropical feel will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms by evening, continuing into tonight.  While everyone won’t get wet today, those that do have the potential of picking up a quick 1″ in a short period of time.  A cold front will cross the state Thursday and will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going.  While this isn’t a uniform soaking, we’ll take what we can get as things have been bone dry around these parts lately.

    After a quiet and slightly cooler Friday, an upper level disturbance will deliver another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday.  Dry weather will return to wrap up the weekend Sunday.

    Looking ahead, a surge of heat, albeit brief, will have things feeling quite toasty around the Mid West early next week.  We think we flirt with, or exceed, the 90° mark both Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest.  Behind the front, data still paints a much cooler regime for the second half of next week; fall-like!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″


  • Classic Mid-August Weather…

    Highlights:

    • Dry open to the work week
    • Unsettled times return
    • Cooler air heading into the weekend

    Storm Chances Begin To Increase…While southern portions of the state will get wet today, dry air should result in a rain-free Monday here across central Indiana.  That will begin to change later this week as moisture returns and that muggy summer feel develops for midweek.  In addition to the increasingly humid nature to our airmass, a cold front will approach from the west.  Coverage of storms tomorrow should remain few and far between (isolated), but overall coverage will increase Wednesday into Thursday (scattered to numerous).

    The cold front will sweep to our east Thursday night and result in a beautiful close to the work week, complete with cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels.  The weekend will feature a disturbance dropping in from the northwest and this will be sufficient enough to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening before dry times return Sunday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Gorgeous Weekend; Humidity Returns Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Beautiful weekend dialed up
    • Humidity returns
    • Scattered storms late week

    Refreshing Conditions Continue…A cold front settled south of the region last night, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to filter in during the overnight.  That sets the stage for the weekend as we can expect dry and refreshing conditions, along with below average temperatures.

    Dry skies will continue into the new work week, but humidity will slowly begin to increase once we get to midweek.  A southwesterly air flow will develop ahead of our next storm system that will deliver scattered thunderstorms by Thursday.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Friday morning, however, early indications suggest next weekend is also dry.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

    Cool August:  The month has opened impressively cool with a CONUS average anomaly of – 2.75° through the 10th.  More specifically to Indianapolis, we’re running 3° below normal through the 11th.


  • Scattered Storm Chances Return…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered t-storm chances return
    • Mostly dry, pleasant weekend
    • Rain chances return early next week

    Frontal Boundary Moves In Friday…Another sunny, pleasant late-summer day is on tap before a cold front approaches late tonight. This frontal boundary will be responsible for creating scattered thunderstorms Friday across central IN.  Current indications suggest rain won’t be widespread or particularly heavy, but don’t be surprised by a local downpour or two as we wrap up the work week.

    Dry and pleasant weather will return over the weekend, complete with plentiful sunshine.  Our next storm system approaches Sunday night into Monday with the potential of more widespread rain.  With that said, there’s considerable model disagreement with regard to overall rain coverage and amounts Monday (European is the most aggressive with widespread rain).  We’ll go with a blend of the two for now (scattered thunderstorm chances) and hope for better agreement later today.  We’ll provide updates after taking a good look at 12z data.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″