Friday Morning Rambles…

I. Bitter Cold: We’re adding another morning below zero to an already impressive (and growing) list of frigid lows this winter.  Take a look at these morning lows in the sub-zero club:

  • 12.27.17: – 3°
  • 12.31.17: – 1°
  • 01.01.18: – 10°
  • 01.02.18: – 12°
  • 01.04.18: – 3°

So far, IND has already dropped to 8° below this morning and we’ll throw another morning of sub-zero lows on the table Saturday (many will fall to between 8° and 15° below) as an arctic high settles overhead.

II.  Messy Storm: An approaching storm system late in the weekend will spread moisture into the arctic air mass and concern for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain remains Sunday evening into Monday morning.  Overnight data suggests an initial thump of snow followed by several hours of freezing rain for most of central Indiana.  Certainly, close attention is warranted for this event as we progress through the weekend.

III.  Milder: Once the early week winter event blows by, a milder southwesterly air flow will pull us out of the freezer for a couple of days during the middle of next week.  In fact, highs will likely go north of 50° Wednesday-Thursday.  Break out the shorts!

IV:  Leader-Follower: An interesting pattern awaits late next week as an arctic cold front pushes east.  Rain will spread into the region late in the week as the first surface low tracks through the Great Lakes.  We think a second low pressure system will develop on the pressing arctic boundary Thursday night into Friday and it’s this low that poses a wintry component to interior portions of the east.  Is that across the Ohio Valley (such as the European model suggests) or along the Appalachian chain (GFS)?  That’s up for debate and there’s no way to settle things right now.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on things and update accordingly.

V: January Thaw: The overall pattern will get engulfed with milder, Pacific air during the second half of the month and the end result will be a rather dramatic flip from arctic cold to above normal conditions as a classic January “thaw” develops.  After the significant and prolonged arctic feel, many won’t complain of this pattern relaxation.