Monday Evening Rambles: Looking Towards October….

Irma: Irma’s remnants will begin to impact the state Tuesday. We noticed an increasing mid and high level cloud deck today and moisture will spread north to encompass southern Indiana during the daytime Tuesday. Generally, rainfall amounts will be light-to-moderate, and significant rains are still not expected over the course of the next couple of days. Nonetheless, central Indiana can expect “showery” conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday. Additionally, a gusty easterly and northeasterly wind will accompany the showers and may reach speeds of 20-25 MPH at times. With the easterly flow and showers, expect temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 60s Wednesday.

Pattern Transition: Month-to-date, temperatures are running more than 6° below average at IND as a quick start to fall has taken control. That said, the medium range (6-10 day time frame) will be dominated by a transition in the pattern. Early season snow will fly in the northern Rockies as a deep trough results in unseasonably cold air where it’s been warmest against the averages so far this month. Conversely, our cool pattern will flip to a late season blast of warmth beginning this weekend. If you’re a fan of summer, you may want to enjoy this late summer “fling” as more changes are in the offing…

European Weeklies: The NEW European Weeklies are in and paint an interesting scenario as we go into late September and on into October. The period begins with cold “pressing” into the warmth trying to hang on across the east. A fight develops in between (including our part of the country) and this is the first signal we’ve seen in a while where above normal precipitation of significance and widespread fashion is forecast to develop as we go through the weeks 2-3 time frame. Eventually this increasingly wet and active regime should lead to the chill returning to our part of the country as September comes to a close and we welcome in October. In fact, the update tonight is bullish on an unseasonably cold first half of October… Given the overall pattern, it’s hard to disagree with that idea.