12.23.16 Ensemble Discussion On The 6-10 Day…

*A fresh 7-day will be updated late tonight or early Christmas Eve.*

Modeling continues to suggest a colder return looms as we close out 2016 and open 2017.  We’ve discussed the implications of a negative EPO and it certainly appears as if, at least initially, the negative EPO will do the “dirty work” to drive a colder regime in the 6-10 day period.

gefs_epo_12

epoold_neg_12decWe note ensemble data is suggesting high latitude blocking tries to develop towards Day 10.  Recall this was the missing ingredient in the bitterly cold blasts of air that occurred during the first few weeks of December.  Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the increasingly blocky look to the pattern by Day 10.  This would help drive a cold, stormy pattern by early January.  Instead of storms cutting, we would see more suppression.  With a “stubborn” southeast ridge, things could get interesting across the Ohio Valley from a wintry perspective….

gefs12z122316

eps12z122316We don’t want to jump the gun, but it the positives can “hook up” over the pole, we stand the chance of locking into a rather lengthy cold, snowy regime as we rumble deeper into the heart of winter.

Given the look, it’s no surprise we see the 12z teleconnections want to continue the trend of a negative look to the NAO and AO in the medium to longer term.

12zeuronao122316

12zeuroao122316Summary:  A rather mild regime remains as we rumble through Christmas before trending more seasonable next week.  From a wintry perspective we need to continue to keep an eye on the period around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Confidence continues to increase on the potential of a return of arctic air come early January.