It’s been a ridiculously busy day and a longer post will arrive late tonight, including the updated 7-day.
Models continue to struggle on the evolution of things this weekend. The GFS (including the most recent 18z run) remains warm, with brief snow/ mix transitioning to mostly a rain event for central parts of the state. If correct, heavy snows would be confined to the northern third of the state. On the other hand, the European is less robust with the low and presents an overall flatter (weaker) look. Plentiful moisture overruns the cold air at the surface to lead to an impactful wintry event for central Indiana before ending as rain just prior to resurgent arctic air roaring in. This is ironic as the Euro led the charge in the “amped up” idea yesterday. The Canadian (GEM) is a blend between the two, leaning more towards the GFS.
While cold certainly overwhelms the pattern over the next couple weeks, as mentioned, the specifics with each storm will require a great deal of attention. IF (big IF) the flatter idea wins out, this will be a colder system and the result will be more wintry precipitation vs. liquid. However, if the GFS’ idea in a deepening low into the lower Lakes comes to fruition, it’ll be mighty tough for this to be much more than a brief snow/ mix to mostly rain event for central IN, especially without blocking in place currently.
In our opinion, we’re still another 24 hours out from having this thing nailed down. Stay tuned.
Full updated 7-day, including fresh thoughts on the weekend, late tonight!